And I'm disagreeing with the conclusion of your assumed possibility, not the assumption itself, to be perfectly clear.

There would never be an NFL MOV distribution that contradicts his position.

I understand now. My usage of the term 'variance' wasn't the best.

can someone show me how to calculate the math on this? is there a thread somewhere that explains it (maybe sbr)?

Originally posted by Irish Tim at EOG.

To calculate if a teaser is +EV or not, you need to determine if the amount you are capturing in the push rates you are teasing across makes up for the extra juice you are paying. You can do this by taking

P = probability of winning a single leg
N = number of teams in your teaser
O = the payout odds for the overall teaser (i.e. +300 = 3, +100 = 1, -110 = 10/11)

(P^N) x O = (1 - P^N) which you can reconfigure to P = (1 / O+1) ^ (1/N). It's kind of awkward typing in exponents and such on a computer, it's not nearly as complicated as it looks when you write it out.

For a 2 team, 6 point teaser at +100 you would do:
P = (1/odds you are being given + 1) ^ (1/number of teams)
P = (1/1+1)^(1/2) = square root of (.5) = .707 = 70.7%.

For a Wong Teaser (through 3 and 7) at -110, it's:
P = 1/ [(10/11)+1] ^ (1/2)
P = .723 = 72.3%

So what the means is your breakeven point on each leg of the teaser (with payout odds of -110) is 72.3%. Assuming the NFL is an efficient market (each spread is a 50-50 proposition), that means you need to capture an extra 22.3% in the teaser to break even. Depending on what push frequencies you are using (and whether it's you're starting at 1.5, 2, 2.5 or 8.5, 8, 7.5) you're capturing about 24% with the 6 points. As you can see, they are still profitable at -110 (1.7% edge vs. 3.3% edge at +100).

In order to make money, you need to find the 6-point ranges that will cover more than 72.3% of the time (assume a 50% vs. the closing line, so the 6-point should capture 22.3%). Of course past data doesn't always guarantee future results, but unless there is some reason - such as rule changes - to expect the scoring distributions in NFL to change, you can fire in some good bets with these.

looks like another week like last week

letting it hang out with 84 4-teamers placed tonight

1. Determine teaser win and tie probabilities for each of the 2 legs.

2. Construct a table of all 9 possible outcomes, the probabilities of those outcomes, and the respective returns for each of the outcomes.

3. Sum the respective returns which equals the expected value.

Using your first game as an example (NE-2/CAR+9).

Different methods exist to determine teaser win and tie probability, e.g. push frequencies. To keep it simple, probability of NE winning based on no-vig money line = .744. To construct the winning teaser probability, subtract from this the probability of NE winning by 1 and 2, which is approx. .023 and .015, respectively. .744-.023-.015 = .706.

Odds of CAR teaser win = (probability of CAR covering +3) + (probability of losing by [3,4,5,6,7,8]) = .494 + .239 = .733. Probability of CAR losing by 9 is approx. .015.

Assume -110 teasers with tie+win=tie and tie+loss=loss.

leg	win	tie
NE	.706	.015
CAR	.733	.015

NE result	CAR result	prob	payoff	weighted return
W	W	0.517804297	0.90909	0.470731179
W	L	0.178017303	-1	-0.178017303
W	T	0.010596268	0	0
L	W	0.204200703	-1	-0.204200703
L	L	0.070202697	-1	-0.070202697
L	T	0.004178732	-1	-0.004178732
T	W	0.010995	0	0
T	L	0.00378	-1	-0.00378
T	T	0.000225	0	0
			Exp. Value	0.010351744

Using overly optimistic push frequencies can make a play look more attractive than reality, so choose wisely.

Checked pinnacle CAR close was +3 -119/110 not -127/117, so cover prob s/b .480. EV is -0.0093.

well, that was a crummy start to the week

jesus christ almighty

now i remember why i hedge

i honestly expected to get **** on for that q but thank you guys very much


kdog, where do we get this 24% number from?

from adding up the push rates of the 6 numbers that you are getting.

This is wrong when teasing on possible tie spreads, when you don't lose on W+T or T+W. See my chart above for method but here are the break-even rates assuming -110 and +100 payoffs for various teaser spread push frequencies.

Teaser spread push frequency	Frequency of W+T or T+W (see footnote)	-110 break-even	+100 break-even
1%	1.4%	71.85%	70.21%
1.5%	2.1%	71.59%	69.96%
2%	2.8%	71.32%	69.70%

* - Frequencies change slightly based on break-even win rate.

Assume the following push frequencies for +3 dog:

lose by	frequency
3	10%
9	1%
3,4,5,6,7,8	23.9%

Dog must be .7185-.239 = .4795 to cover +3 (i.e. lose by 2 or less). This implies favorite has 1-.4795-.1 = .4205 to cover (i.e. win by 4 or more). To get required no vig line, .4795/.4205 = 1.14 = -114. So one would need a no vig line of -114 or shorter for a +3 dog to yield a break-even leg on -110 teaser.

Here are other break-even no vig lines for various [3,4,5,6,7,8] push frequencies (using 10% and 1% for 3 and 9, respectively):

3-8 push frequency	-110 break-even no-vig line	+100 break-even no-vig line
22.5%	-121.4	-112.8
23.0%	-118.7	-110.3
23.5%	-116.1	-107.9
24.0%	-113.5	-105.5

Similar method can be used for teasing 3 point favorite. Here is the table assuming 10% and 7.5% push frequencies for -3 and +3, respectively:

-3,-2,-1,0,+1,+2 push frequency	-110 break-even no-vig line	+100 break-even no-vig line
19.0%	-121.4	-113.6
19.5%	-118.7	-111.1
20.0%	-116.1	-108.6
20.5%	-113.5	-106.2

gotta admit I have no idea what you're talking about, are you suggesting the breakeven % changes depending on the expected push % of a leg?

Yes, because you lose less often when probability of a tie increases.

Similar to requiring a 3 point favorite to cover x% of the time. Since probability of a tie is about 10%, your break-even for -110 is only 1.1*.9/2.1 = 47.14%. Break-even on a 5 point favorite would be much higher, because the push frequency for -5 is much lower.

time to roll out today... I want to be hedging the Saints game hard on Monday

and now the pats, ffs.

and yea, verily, Tom is rising.

Come on Chargers

come on seattle

man i had a 5 teamer TEN, NYG, CAR, PHI, and the mf'ing CHARGERS please score two tds one time, edit nevermind just gave up a picksix

if i did a proper round robin id probably be up this week but instead i was too heavy on the charges in the two teamers. BUFFALO pick ends up wasted due to these clowns too

Seattle gonna **** things up tonight.

I did every combo of Car, Ten, NYG, and Sea, and hedged some SF -2...rootin for this big middle

Well that was good. Looks like they're covering now.