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Old 09-16-2010, 12:03 AM   #151
MyTurn2Raise
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

not adjusting for underlying ATS (assuming continued above 50%) is very dangerous
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Old 09-16-2010, 12:16 AM   #152
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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also not a good idea to tease them on wednesday since its built on the idea of efficient lines and closer to gametime they're considered more efficient
Thanks for the advice, will do next time, just a question about that tho.

I use a private book where i meet with a local and on my site, I'm not able to put in round robin teasers so I've gotta place each wager manually.

If I'm doing this Sunday shortly before games start, I feel like it's most likely that while I'm in the middle of doing all the combos, lines might change out of wongable range. So should I just be trying to get in as many as possible early Sunday before they change?

For example when I tried to do it early Sunday last week, the wongs that were available earlier in the week that I would have done (Steelers +2.5, Texans +2.5, Broncos +2.5, Ravens +2.5) weren't wongable anymore (Steelers +1, Texans +1, Ravens +1, only Broncos stayed at +2.5 so no more combos).

Sorry if I'm totally noobish at this, just trying to learn.
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Old 09-16-2010, 12:26 AM   #153
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

nah, last week was a fluke that so many wongable lines moved in the correct direction for those that bet early

worked out lucky for me
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Old 09-16-2010, 12:56 AM   #154
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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nah, last week was a fluke that so many wongable lines moved in the correct direction for those that bet early

worked out lucky for me
Ya seems like I'm gonna get worse lines than closing on virtually all of my bets that I locked in yesterday. Thanks for responding
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Old 09-16-2010, 01:07 AM   #155
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

ok, complete noob Question. in a teaser both teams or all teams have to win right?
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Old 09-16-2010, 01:11 AM   #156
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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ok, complete noob Question. in a teaser both teams or all teams have to win right?
yup all teams
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Old 09-16-2010, 01:22 AM   #157
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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yup all teams
thank you lookin forward to trying it out this week
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Old 09-16-2010, 01:55 AM   #158
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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i see the packers are -14 right now, if that line moves to -14.5 does anyone have any thoughts on teasing that to cover the 10 and 14? Any past posts regarding?
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Old 09-16-2010, 01:56 AM   #159
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
not adjusting for underlying ATS (assuming continued above 50%) is very dangerous
True and BTC certainly has his detractors around forumville. I just linked it because I too lazy to type up the answer to the 5 yr question.
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:23 AM   #160
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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True and BTC certainly has his detractors around forumville. I just linked it because I too lazy to type up the answer to the 5 yr question.
yeah, I know you know your stuff. Just about any sportsbetting forum I visit will have kdog as a currently viewing member. Hell, you are years ahead of me and have probably had a few good chuckles at some of the weaker stuff I've put out there.

It was more a warning to others.
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Old 09-16-2010, 02:40 AM   #161
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

Jets +3 -120 is now wide spread, and, while I'd never recommend them, BetUS has Jets +3 -115. Cross that one off the list.
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Old 09-16-2010, 03:42 AM   #162
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

BTC is pretty clueless when it comes to anything really about sports betting in my limited experience with him. He is nice to share his databases, though.
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Old 09-16-2010, 06:53 AM   #163
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

My first teasers since the apocalypse went 3-0, 1-0
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Old 09-16-2010, 09:49 AM   #164
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

couple question for you sports betting folks =]

ive noticed bodog always releases the small lines (< 3) late like on wednesdays or later. bengals +2 just came out yesterday, and jets didnt get released til the line moved to 3. kc isnt out yet (but supposed to be 2) and neither is is car/tb (although thats 3.5) ive always noticed they did this for small spread games but after reading this thread im wondering if they do this specifically for wong teasers? like are they hoping that the line will move to a better number before releasing it?

and do wong teasers apply to ncaa football just as well as nfl? i dont see why not but just wondering since i havent seen any cfl talk

thanks
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Old 09-16-2010, 10:17 AM   #165
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

No to NCAA. Only NFL.
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Old 09-16-2010, 10:35 AM   #166
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise View Post
not adjusting for underlying ATS (assuming continued above 50%) is very dangerous
Sorry if this is a dumb question,but what does this mean?
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Old 09-16-2010, 10:54 AM   #167
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

ridiculous ats covering is skewing the data?
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Old 09-16-2010, 10:58 AM   #168
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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ridiculous ats covering is skewing the data?
yep
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Old 09-16-2010, 11:25 AM   #169
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

So your saying there is no real data to look at because the past 5 years the numbers of teams covering is abnormal. Have books adjusted for this, or is there even anything that needs to be adjusted? RTM strategy ftw? Possible books don't know how to handicap NFL games anymore

Question, is it possible that there are enough Wong teaser bettors that the books have to adjust their opening lines or would they just adjust the prices on the payout?
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Old 09-16-2010, 11:34 AM   #170
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

emet, the books adjust every way possible.

Many pay less for teasers now. Most books pay -110 for 2-teamers when -100 used to be standard. 3-teamers have been falling to +160 from +180.

Many adjust the spread so that the teases don't cross key numbers and adjust for that by pricing the spread different. For instance, you'll see +9 -124/ -9 +108 instead of +7.5 -108/ -7.5 -108.


and, believe me, the books know how to price and are getting better all the time. Any modern (last 5 years) ridiculous spread covering in a market like the NFL on a particular spread would have the null hypothesis of just variance accounting for that result.

Last edited by MyTurn2Raise; 09-16-2010 at 11:50 AM.
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Old 09-16-2010, 11:46 AM   #171
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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So your saying there is no real data to look at
.
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Old 09-16-2010, 11:59 AM   #172
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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My first teasers since the apocalypse went 3-0, 1-0
Daliman's NFL Wong teasers, Season Cinq: Week 2 thread?
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Old 09-16-2010, 12:22 PM   #173
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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No to NCAA. Only NFL.
ty!

would sweetheart teasing -7 to +3 and -3 to +7 be of value?
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Old 09-16-2010, 12:27 PM   #174
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

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ty!

would sweetheart teasing -7 to +3 and -3 to +7 be of value?
these questions (and answers) are smeared all over sportsbetting forums in the world wide interweb.............I would try there first before coming here and begging like the homeless folks outside of my office do.

Last edited by Peeig; 09-16-2010 at 12:28 PM. Reason: i being knice
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Old 09-16-2010, 12:32 PM   #175
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re: Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread

the thread title says noob thread and im in here being a noob
obv my mistake
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