So read the teaser section in WONGs book

He talks about home FAVORites
Road dogs like he doesn't understand being home or away is already incorporated into the fave or dog

Seems silly

Would also like data that compares to the total

If the over under is 58 then 6 points seems meh in terms of value even when crossing key numbers

If the over under was 28 then 6 points seems huge and gigantically +EV

Did i miss this section or he just doesn't have it


/intuitive newb thoughts

Its no secret that the lower the total the more valuable the points are which means the points you buy in a teaser also are more valuable.

Some betters seem to care about home vs road with wongs, I've never thought there was a significant difference. I tend to believe all that information is incorporated into the spread as you've mentioned.

Yes, lower totals are more valuable for teasers. Regardless of the game total, crossing the 3 and the 7 in the NFL still seems +EV at good teaser prices. Borderline teasers (e.g. teasing +3 -120 to +9) are safer with low total games, but I would be more skeptical of those with large totals.

In theory this would be correct. In practice blind betting road favs (and recently home dogs) has not been profitable.

Do you believe that's due to variance or is there an underlying reason to be suspicious of road faves and home dogs?

Seems obviously to be variance , and if it isn't variance then I'm sure the books are adjusting

With home dogs my ~guess~ is that both variance and book adjustments are involved. If you remember, a few years ago home dogs got a lot of publicity as a profitable subset. They have since regressed back toward 50/50 and teasers have regressed far more. How much of that is variance and how much is line adjustment is ????

Road favs have not been a profitable subset to blind bet as far back as at least 1994. Highly unlikely that's variance.

Kdog, just to be clear, r u saying that teasing these subsets is no longer such a good idea in recent years. Do u think the distributions have changed or r u just talking about ATS.

thanks

7pt teaser I like Denver Broncos +16.5.

Against the Raiders, if Broncos can score 14, this half of a bet is on lock down.


I'm taking this with Atlanta -1(@Colts) and Houston -5.5(Home vs. Browns).

Noob question:

Is it profitable to tease 5 points?

Like -2.5 to -7.5. They pay better and you are still crossing the 3 and 7.


What about doing some big teaser like a 8 team 8 point teaser that all cross the 3 and 7 and then do the round robin thing (obv less points when it works)

on behalf of those not with us, justin7 is a nutsack of the highest order.

good post tho

u jelly?

How much better is it paying

Intuitively not only does it seem profitable, it's seems better

They aren't as useful because you can only tease between 2.5 and 7.5, everything else is no bueno, so it's fine I guess but you're limiting your options.

Well ya but I'm saying a 2.5 to 7.5 5 point teasers is the most +EV teaser possible

Or -7.5 to -2.5

The 5 point teasers pay

2- +107

3- +200

4- +335

You can do an slightly lower payout for a 'ties win' option, but if you stick to only teasing -7.5 and +2.5 you can avoid the chops and gain the extra few cents.

Obv its rare you get many teams that fall directly on those numbers.

You lose either the 2 or the 8 for these. Since the push rates for those are both ~2% the 5 pointers are better at those payoffs.

Blindly teasing road favorites that meet the criteria for basic strategy (wong) teasers has not been profitable as far back as the samples Wong used in SSB. Home dogs, for whatever reasons, have also not done well over the last few years.

This is borrowed from a post at another forum:

1994-2010 B.S. teasers, Sample Size 849

RD1.5 to 2.5, 226-85-1 for 72.7%
HD1.5 to 2.5, 159-64-0 for 71.3%
subtotal dogs, 385-149-1 for 72.1%

RF7.5 to 8.5, 46-27-0 for 63%
HF7.5 to 8.5, 179-60-2 for 74.9%
subtotal Favs, 225-87-2 for 72.1%

Total all, 610-236-3 for 72.1%

Last 5 years, 2006-2010, SS 249

RD1.5 to 2.5, 64-22-1 for 74.4%
HD1.5 to 2.5, 41-26-0 for 61.2%
subtotal dogs, 105-48-1 for 68.6%

RF7.5 to 8.5, 15-13-0 for 53.6%
HF7.5 to 8.5, 53-14-0 for 79.1%
Subtotal Favs, 68-27-0 for 71.6%

Total all, 173-75-1 for 69.8%

I think it's just favorites are better than dogs cus the points are inherently more valuable.... Road home should be correctly adjusted for now if it wasn't before
Variance happens

kdog I asked before and I'll ask again, do you believe that these discrepancies between RF/RD/HF/HD are due to an underlying reason hurting road favorites and home dogs, or do you believe it's just variance?

Kdog, thanks for ur reply. this is from killer sports:


HD +6: 132-45-1 (74.6%) post 2005 +6: 25-12-0 (67.6%)
RD +6: 176-70-2 (71.5%) post 2005 +6: 47-18-2 (72.3%)

HF +6: 252-71-4 (78.0%) post 2005 +6: 74-13-2 (85.1%)
RF +6: 69-35-0 (66.3%) post 2005 +6: 18-11-0 (62.1%)


so yea what u r saying seems right but the sample sizes r so small. eg HD 53 games.

**** i gotta go but i'll post all the ATS records when i get back.

Read post #1482.

Sorry I missed that post, my bad.

I disagree here. From sportsdatabase.com (not perfect data but at least it's free), 7.5pt to 8.5 pt road faves are 69-35 (66.3%) since 1994 on 6pt teasers. Given standard deviation = square root (n*p*(1-p)), and assuming a true value of teasers at 72%, then we get standard deviation of 4.58 wins, so current data is only 1.28 standard deviations from expected. Certainly plausible that this is just variance, especially with a sample size of only 104 games, changing only 5 of those games makes road favorites a profitable subset again.

Adding in 7 pt road favorites (particularly since database's lines aren't perfect) means that current data is only 0.71 standard deviations below 72% expectation.

The big thing is that these road favorites have been 46-47% ATS since 1994. If that continues then obviously road favorites are a bad teaser option. But there was a known home-dog inefficiency as recently as a few years ago, and that's largely considered to be gone now, so I think road favorites will be a good subset to tease going into future games.