Quote:
Originally Posted by bsheck
Actually scratch teasing Baltimore and GB. I thought "billthecop" teasers supported teasing 10-11 point home dogs, but going back and reading it (here about 2/3 down) it's just road dogs that are 4.5-5.5 pt favorites. So just teasing Atlanta and TB this week.
Of all the responses I have seen posted about BTC's 4.5-6 pt road dogs I think StevieY's is the best. It's post #33 from this thread.
http://www.bettingtalk.com/threads/1...241#post713241
"It's not so much that teasing 4.5-6 pt road dogs is a "bad" bet, but that all the value has been in the straight bet. A little example:
H Favs 7.5-8.5 since 2000.
ATS 83-82-1 50.3%
6 pt teaser 126-39-1 76.4%
Lines in this range have been right on target, pretty much 50/50, but yet you have a great teaser play. All the value is in the teaser. In this sense, the teaser isn't dependent on the ATS of the side.
A Dogs 4.5-6 since 1994
ATS 257-223 53.5%
6 pt teaser 354-137 73.0%
Historically the lines have been slanted high. Teaser is a winner but only because the lines have been slanted high. What happens to the teaser if the lines level out?
A Dogs 4.5-6 since 2000
ATS 158-152 51%
6 pt teaser 218-97 69.2%
Lines level off, teaser now -EV. The line, on average, has been set correctly and the teaser lost all it's value.
A Dogs 4.5-6 since 2005
ATS 85-71 54.5%
6 pt teaser 118-41 74.2%
Game lines been off, teaser is +EV again.
The difference between the 2 subsets is the Home favs 7.5-8.5 doesn't require the game line to be off, just to be right(and it has enough meat that the line can be wrong as well). The A Dogs 4.5-6 require the game line to be off. Because the value is in the straight side and not the teaser, you will see Pinny offer +10.5 -210 or -220 on +4.5 road dogs. Now, if you believe the line is off, the greater value is in the game bet. If your book doesn't offer open teaser legs and you really need a team to fill your teaser, this would be the first spot I would look at for a bad line but I would not play this spot blindly."