explain please?

Jk poker
Lol

meh... small loss last weekend

pretty uneventful week for teasers with the Vikes +9 leg getting demolished so bad that I didn't get a sweat out of it.

This week looks like a minefield.....early trick or treat repeat from last year?

agreed, read that book again dog...

thoughts on the following?

1. Packers -2.5 and Ravens -2

2. Packers -2.5 and Ravens -2 and Skins +8.5

I just did a 2 teamer with packers and ravens both -1.5. Just did not see a 3rd team I liked. I just do not trust the Redskins.

If you are insistent on picking a 3rd team I think San Diego and possibly Denver are considerations also.

always good to do them on tuesday

It still amazes me how many people bet these and add their own personal biases to whichever teams they choose.

haha

I do not really get your comment. The whole point of handicapping is using personal bias (analysis) to find spots you like/dislike. I am not gonna just blindly tease every team that crosses the 3 and 7. I am going to use some discretion to choose spots I think are good and bad. If this makes me a square, so be it.

That's the precise idea of a wong though.

Fair enough.

I'm talking about the scenarios where the Jets are a +2 -110 underdog on Pinny and the Buccaneers are also a +2 -110 dog on Pinny, and someone here will tease TB but not NYJ because Mark Sanchez throws a lot of interceptions. Don't you realize the market takes all that into account? That sharps have already evaluated all the information you have with respect to injuries, player efficiency, etc. and that they know much more than you do about what a reasonable line for the game is.

Just last week one guy was mentioning how awesome a Bears -1 to +5 tease was because the line on the Bears was just awful. This is just his own personal biases presuming that he's smarter than the market; it's just playing your own biases rather than the data.

I can't really find a good reason to tease one +2 dog and not another based on any kind of handicapping. Maybe if the favorite in one game is much more prone to running up the score than most teams, then your push percentages could change significantly, but such a scenario seems very rare.

Maybe I am just a sportsbetting fish, but I believe that if you ran next weeks games infinite times Baltimore would cover -1.5 at a higher % than the Jets would cover -8.

Is the general consensus really that when it comes to teasing, the market is that efficient that all teams will cover teased spreads with identical frequency (in the long run)?

I agree completely. I thought it was well understood that a fundamental tenant of betting teasers is to focus more on good teams, with more reliable performances than bad teams (or high variance teams) whose results are inconsistent. Consider for example Green Bay -8.5 at home vs a marginal team. At -2.5 you can be very confident they will cover. Conversely, I think you should feel less at ease teasing a bad team at home 1.5 who is playing a marginally better team. That home team may not be able to get anything going and can lose on a landslide, like many bad teams have done this year. There is more variance in their results.

As for all of this talk of market efficiency, keep in mind only a small percentage of the football betting pool is focused on teasers. Yes, the bookmakers have to account for them but I'm sure the action from the squares and even sharps on the spread grossly outweighs the action on the teasers so first and foremost the concern is making sure those lines are efficient. Also just because a line is efficient at -8.5, doesn't mean it will be equally efficient when teased -2.5.

If a bad team is only +1.5 at home then I'd expect the other team to also be not very good. Take Denver @ Miami this week, where Denver is +2 on the road. Denver definitely sucks, but Miami is also terrible.

Okay, using "bad" and "good" is somewhat misleading, what I meant is high variance vs low variance (although these terms are loosely connected to bad and good, with obvious exceptions).

An example, assume two 6-6 teams with relatively equal schedules are both +2.5 at home. One of those teams has never lost a game by more than 7 pts the other has lost three games by 21 pts+.

Should we view these legs as equal?


UOTE=z32fanatic;29358196]If a bad team is only +1.5 at home then I'd expect the other team to also be not very good. Take Denver @ Miami this week, where Denver is +2 on the road. Denver definitely sucks, but Miami is also terrible.[/QUOTE]

Keep it goin guys.

wow this thread got out of hand quickly

Barring any other information (like the totals) yes, that is exactly what you should do.

I can't believe I just spent 20 minutes looking for where I had put this book but whatever...

From page 259:

"Summary of Six-Point Teasers

Six-point teasers appear to be worthwhile bets only if two conditions hold:

One necessary condition is you must select teams going off at spreads that allow the teased points to capture 3s and 7s.

Another important condition is you must get good terms.

Two teams, each of which covers 74 percent of the time, will cover together 54.8 percent of the time. Three of them will cover together 40.5 percent of the time.

The break-even point on six-point teasers where each team captures both the 3 and the 7 and covers 74 percent of the time is -121 for two-teamers and +147 for three-teamers."

Poogs is the most worthless poster I've ever come across. Have you ever contributed anything useful?

Keep following the book verbatim guys! Here's a clue, all wongs may be +EV but some may be more than others. You really think lines are so efficient as to capture team specific variance in wong teasures when joe public (the book's atm) have no idea of their existance.

kdog, turn the page for 6.5 and 7 teasers....

how many legs do you guys play on the average week and do you just play wongs? This week is pretty meh for wongs which sucks.