Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread - Page 42 - Sports Betting

agreed.... pretty good

too bad hedgez never win, thus Monday nights have not come through for the big, big win.

Still, nice to have made up all of preseason already

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09-22-2011 , 02:20 AM

#1027

h_ven

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 5,565

Week 3

Pinny Lines
SanFran +2.5
Miami +1.5

Bodog Lines
SanFran +3(-125)
Miami +3(-130)

So I can get SanFran +9/Miami+9 at -110

Value there? do you like/dislike?

What's a good price for 2 team 6 pt teaser?
+180 is good for 3 teamers right?

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09-22-2011 , 03:07 AM

#1028

dabomguy11

newbie

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 38

Getting a 2-team 6 point teaser at +100 is great, -110 is pretty standard these days.

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09-22-2011 , 05:33 AM

#1029

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

Quote:

Originally Posted by h_ven

Pretty marginal spot. Low totals is good i guess. But yeah +180 3teamers much better if you can find a viable leg to add (remember ties lose on the bodog +180). Doesn't seem to be one any more. I grabbed NE -2.5 / SF +9 / MIA +9 yesterday, and that's my only teaser for the week.

<3 wong shula

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09-22-2011 , 07:10 AM

#1030

ProfessorBen

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 9,897

? im pretty sure ties reduce at bodog - did they change?

doesn't matter as much now that they've shaded their lines like everyone else - i've bet <5% of my teasers there thus far this season.

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09-22-2011 , 01:48 PM

#1031

vetiver

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Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

? im pretty sure ties reduce at bodog - did they change?

doesn't matter as much now that they've shaded their lines like everyone else - i've bet <5% of my teasers there thus far this season.

ties reduce on their standard 2team -110, but lose on their "sweetheart" teasers which includes 3team +180s. rollover the little heart icon to see rules

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09-22-2011 , 04:52 PM

#1032

ProfessorBen

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 9,897

As far as I can see, The sweetheart only applies if you run the 10 pter.

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09-22-2011 , 05:34 PM

#1033

steelbase

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 290

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

? im pretty sure ties reduce at bodog - did they change?

This is right, ties do reduce.

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09-22-2011 , 08:06 PM

#1034

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

As far as I can see, The sweetheart only applies if you run the 10 pter.

oh yeah i'm dumb. misinterpreted "this qualifies as a sweetheart teaser" as "this is a sweetheart teaser".

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09-22-2011 , 08:47 PM

#1035

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

yay eagles line out,

ne & phi -2.5 @ -105

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09-22-2011 , 10:53 PM

#1036

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

are cfb lines unwongable mostly because of higher totals? or are MOV distributions fundamentally different / more volatile? for instance kent state is -8 teasable on 5d to -2 with o/u 39.

Last edited by vetiver; 09-22-2011 at 11:15 PM.

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09-22-2011 , 11:48 PM

#1037

NajdorfDefense

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Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,582

Are you really asking if CFB is more volatile than NFL? I mean, crappy college kickers alone will give you an answer there.

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09-23-2011 , 12:05 AM

#1038

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

Are you really asking if CFB is more volatile than NFL? I mean, crappy college kickers alone will give you an answer there.

yeah, i'm asking to what extent unwongableness is due to high totals. i mean if a game had an o/u 17 we'd obv wong -8 to -2, so i'm wondering where to draw that line in cfb

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09-23-2011 , 12:21 AM

#1039

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by vetiver

yeah, i'm asking to what extent unwongableness is due to high totals. i mean if a game had an o/u 17 we'd obv wong -8 to -2, so i'm wondering where to draw that line in cfb

it's been discussed many times

search for it in wong FAQ or preseason thread for 2011

sometimes, it's good.
most of the time, it's not.

it's all about whether the added 6 points give you >20.72% at certain odds

it's about more than totals as well. TD/FG ratios matter.

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09-23-2011 , 01:08 AM

#1040

NajdorfDefense

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Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,582

Quote:

Originally Posted by vetiver

i mean if a game had an o/u 17 we'd obv wong -8 to -2, so i'm wondering where to draw that line in cfb

That's interesting, I'd tease to +14 on a 17-pt total.

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09-23-2011 , 01:56 AM

#1041

vetiver

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 7,757

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

That's interesting, I'd tease to +14 on a 17-pt total.

Cool. Clearly -8 --> -2 tease is still +ev though, and my question is clearly what the game total threshold is for wonging cfb through the 3 & 7, not what the optimal tease play would be in a -8 o/u 17 game. Was just a question borne out of curiosity. I don't plan on teasing cfb in conjunction with nfl at all, much less very often. I don't plan on figuring this out on my own through developing cfb push charts or poring over all the hundreds of wong posts i can find. Hence, wong noob thread.

edit ty mt2r

Last edited by vetiver; 09-23-2011 at 02:15 AM.

Quote

09-23-2011 , 10:28 AM

#1042

bpb

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,380

Quote:

Originally Posted by vetiver

yay eagles line out,

ne & phi -2.5 @ -105

NE is a poor choice for teasing.

Road favorite.
Insanely high total.
Division game.
Early Season
-105

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09-23-2011 , 11:18 AM

#1043

Iowa!

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,615

Quote:

Originally Posted by bpb

NE is a poor choice for teasing.

Road favorite.
Insanely high total.
Division game.
Early Season
-105

So is the ML for this game wrong or do one of the 4 "factors" mentioned above cause it to land on 1 or 2 more often than an average game with this spread?

Last edited by Iowa!; 09-23-2011 at 11:35 AM.

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09-23-2011 , 11:48 AM

#1044

JKpoker1

adept

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 1,138

Quote:

Originally Posted by bpb

NE is a poor choice for teasing.

Road favorite.
Insanely high total.
Division game.
Early Season
-105

disagree totally about new england. They are playing a bills team that has beaten 2 poor teams. Against the raiders, they got pretty lucky to win and were very close to losing at home. The raiders and the patriots are not even comparable with regards to talent. New england at -2.5 is almost a lock imo.

Quote

09-23-2011 , 01:58 PM

#1045

bpb

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 1,380

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa!

So is the ML for this game wrong or do one of the 4 "factors" mentioned above cause it to land on 1 or 2 more often than an average game with this spread?

You could be right. The spread has actually dropped to -7.5 at most books. Given the ML, this might be a good bet. If you can come up with a good estimate for how often Buffalo loses by 1 point, you can figure out if the win percentage is high enough.

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09-23-2011 , 02:14 PM

#1046

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

2.0 - 2.5% of the time Buffalo loses by a point

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09-23-2011 , 02:49 PM

#1047

Gordon Scott

adept

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 1,082

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

What are your thoughts on wonging LSU to +.5. It seems like a good value from the square perspective but something about the Mess Liles Factor always worries me when I bet LSU.

Thanks
GS

Quote

09-23-2011 , 02:59 PM

#1048

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

Is football season really bringing out the noobs this year or is it always like this?

Quote

09-23-2011 , 03:08 PM

#1049

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poogs

Is football season really bringing out the noobs this year or is it always like this?

every football season

Quote

09-23-2011 , 03:09 PM

#1050

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gordon Scott

What are your thoughts on wonging LSU to +.5. It seems like a good value from the square perspective but something about the Mess Liles Factor always worries me when I bet LSU.

Thanks
GS

given the moneyline at Pinnacle right now is -210/+188 on that game, what do you think?

Please, read the past FAQs and linked threads. This is a horribad leg and there is plenty of information on how to find good legs.

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