Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread - Page 32 - Sports Betting

i googled around and got a spreadsheet set up to figure this out. i have no idea what this stuff means though, what should a high school dropout read to understand these fancy mathematics

before i was just using a sim i programmed to brute force it. i got the same answer but i felt dumb doing it like that. now i feel dumb doing it like this and not knowing what im doing

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12-20-2010 , 06:07 PM

#778

gehrig

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guys when the total is 33 does that mean your 8 point middles aren't allowed to miss

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12-20-2010 , 06:09 PM

#779

Peeig

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 894

Quote:

Originally Posted by gehrig

guys when the total is 33 does that mean your 8 point middles aren't allowed to miss

I sure hope so

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12-20-2010 , 09:13 PM

#780

ProfessorBen

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gehrig

guys when the total is 33 does that mean your 8 point middles aren't allowed to miss

8 is impressive, but if ur gunna use steam as part of ur calculation, u should also note the total is now 34.5.

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12-21-2010 , 12:04 PM

#781

Lego05

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gehrig

Would you share the spreadsheet?

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12-21-2010 , 12:45 PM

#782

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Shipped teaserz. Lozzed it all on the Vikings.

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12-23-2010 , 05:42 AM

#783

subz

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 306

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

Would you share the spreadsheet?

be awesome if you could post up that spreadsheet?

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12-25-2010 , 10:29 AM

#784

z32fanatic

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Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 4,671

Does bodog have a line up for HOU @ DEN or SD @ CIN for anyone else? The HOU/DEN game is just blank for me (sbr says it's DEN +2.5), while the SD/CIN game says -7.5 with a line through it so I can't bet.

Setting up to be an epic wong weekend with 5 games in true wong range right now. Probably going to use my one time on this.

Last edited by z32fanatic; 12-25-2010 at 10:35 AM.

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12-25-2010 , 01:36 PM

#785

MyTurn2Raise

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

have to go hit the egg nog... Go cowboyz I guess

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12-25-2010 , 05:42 PM

#786

Lego05

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Hey guys, Merry Christmas.

So I'm at my parent's house for Christmas and I can't login to Pinnacle here (password is just random string of characters that I don't remember).

Could anybody possibly tell me the Cowboys line around the -105 spot (and post if it changes)? Trying to determine if it will be a good one.

Thanks.

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12-25-2010 , 06:09 PM

#787

Peeig

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 894

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

its still good.....fire away!

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12-25-2010 , 08:05 PM

#788

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

you guys are teasing the cowboys?

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12-25-2010 , 08:15 PM

#789

DeezNuts

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

a lot of combos, will probably wait until late tonight to bet:

SF +9 (possibly staying away from this one)
NE -2
NYJ +8.5
OAK +8.5
DEN +9 (probably staying away from this one)
SD -2
NO +8.5

DAL may be a play, but I'm gonna stay away from that one too. Thoughts?

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12-25-2010 , 08:32 PM

#790

vetiver

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judging from the push chart & with a low o/u total is CHI +6 a possible play for +100/180 6pt teasers?

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12-25-2010 , 09:01 PM

#791

ProfessorBen

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Staying away from teasers isn't lighting money on fire, but it's definitely leaving money on the table. LOL handicapping.

Even in the LOL 0-14 state, I'm sure that my teased -0.5/-1s with my Cards +8 is better off equity wise than staying put completely.

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12-25-2010 , 09:29 PM

#792

DeezNuts

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

Hm, thanks for the response. I know you're right, but I have a problem betting the teasers when I am on the other side (AZ +7). I'll play the rest of them.

What about week 17, does that hold any special formula(stay away, play, etc due to high variability with players sitting/teams throwing in the towel)

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12-25-2010 , 09:36 PM

#793

Peeig

adept

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 894

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNuts

being on the other side lets you bet more on teasers, not less

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12-25-2010 , 09:44 PM

#794

ProfessorBen

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Peeig

being on the other side lets you bet more on teasers, not less

this. more, +EV/+EG gamble. what else could u ask for?

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12-25-2010 , 09:47 PM

#795

ProfessorBen

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week 17: lol low totals --> moar teasers.

this is the n00b thread, but all of these questions have been answered multiple times, possibly in this thread or in the FAQ alone. i definitely recommend you review those materials or past year's threads.

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12-25-2010 , 10:21 PM

#796

DeezNuts

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorBen

you're right, checking them all out now.

one last question re: betting other side. is the reverse true (and if not, why?), why woudn't you bet the spread on the other side of all teased games, if it is +EV to do so? I know the answer is probably in the FAQ and threads but buried, so bear with me, plz.

thanks!

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12-25-2010 , 10:30 PM

#797

ProfessorBen

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i often do, but that's because i'm getting +EV bets on the other side via good numbers. if you're betting into the market line and paying vig - that bet is often -EV and you're not even guaranteed a true middle/arb because each leg is coupled with the other teaser legs. you can lose several other legs and lose ur arb as well. that said, it's generally +EG to take another position, and definitely if its ~EV or +EV.

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12-25-2010 , 10:41 PM

#798

DeezNuts

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Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

got it. thanks for the n00b help!

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12-25-2010 , 11:52 PM

#799

chucky

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 4,998

cowboys teasers go down to missed xp lol

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12-25-2010 , 11:55 PM

#800

R6MC

grinder

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 569

ya...and who didn't know the ball was goin to Fitz (slot) on 4th and 15? first catch of the game, unreal

had the +7 at even originally, added the DAL tease ~10 min prior to kickoff

merry christmas you filthy animals

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