Wong Teasers Basic Strategy Discussion Thread - Page 19 - Sports Betting

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10-17-2010 , 03:27 PM

#451

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,912

Quote:

Originally Posted by Daliman

I really, sincerely, and truly hope you win all of your teases.

Well, thanks.

You bet the same ones or something?

Quote

10-17-2010 , 03:51 PM

#452

calm

banned

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 2,087

Do teasers ever win?

Quote

10-17-2010 , 04:04 PM

#453

Leon Black

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 448

ugh chargers

Quote

10-17-2010 , 04:10 PM

#454

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by calm

Do teasers ever win?

Nothing I back wins. The future is here.

Quote

10-17-2010 , 11:06 PM

#455

subz

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 306

bad day for me - did any1 do ok?

any1 help me with this question please. given the high variance nature of this, is it better to bet only 3 and 4 teamers, or bet the 2 teamers as well even at -110.

say my roll is 15k.
what % of roll would you bet on weeks with:
2 teams only
3 teams
4 teams
5 teams
6 teams
sorry if i am doing this wong but how the fvck do you half kelly 30 or so semi dependent parlays. can some1 tell me the accepted EV. i believe my 2% for -110's and 5% for +180's and +300's are about right but a little conservative?

thanks

Quote

10-17-2010 , 11:21 PM

#456

bjornb

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,937

Quote:

Originally Posted by subz

A 5% half kelly BR bet needs a 20% edge for +180. Which would never happen.

This might help if math is your thing. http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/thorp/ch6.pdf

Quote

10-17-2010 , 11:53 PM

#457

DeezNuts

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,016

i did ok bc i woke up late and only played a DAL/JAX/SF, although final outcome is still pending.

would have hated the chargers.

Quote

10-18-2010 , 09:58 AM

#458

subz

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 306

Quote:

Originally Posted by bjornb

A 5% half kelly BR bet needs a 20% edge for +180. Which would never happen.

This might help if math is your thing. http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/thorp/ch6.pdf

thanks for the pdf. a little heavy but do-able. just wondering how this works for betting the same teams many times in different combos and different odds. BTW, sorry my post was confusing but i meant 2% BR on all 2 teamers and 5% BR on all +180 and 5% BR on all +300. guess that's too much then. obviously i got a lot to learn.

many thanks.

Quote

10-18-2010 , 08:28 PM

#459

subz

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 306

for any1 who is interested i have found this which is very useful - to me anyway.

http://video.sbrforum.com/video-8030...-strategy.html

Quote

10-19-2010 , 12:13 AM

#460

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

death death death

the lord giveth and the lord taketh away

Quote

10-19-2010 , 12:35 AM

#461

NeedATimeMachine

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 718

saw some discussion on how to size teasers, found this chart pretty useful. Been using it for the past couple years, thanks shipit!

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/40...6/#post6151808

not that it matters since all BST's/shaded 3's/good 6.5's blah blah blah never win anyway

Quote

10-19-2010 , 08:20 AM

#462

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

death death death

the lord giveth and the lord taketh away

Yep. Bodog hung atl +3 -150 for about 10 minutes and I put them in almost every 3 and 4 teamer

Quote

10-19-2010 , 07:54 PM

#463

trixtrix

adept

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 863

i lost six digits on teasers last wknd, it hurts like hell

Quote

10-19-2010 , 09:35 PM

#464

subz

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 306

pure pain

Quote

10-21-2010 , 03:06 PM

#465

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

What killed you, sd and atl? Atl hurt me. I actually had phi -7.5 +215 in confirmation stage just to hedge a little bit because I put atl in so many teasers at +9. Then I thought nahhh hedging is for girls

Quote

10-21-2010 , 03:53 PM

#466

bjornb

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 4,937

I got so hammered on Saturday I missed getting any bets in. I run good.

Quote

10-21-2010 , 05:30 PM

#467

luegofuego

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 4,874

Quote:

Originally Posted by bjornb

I got so hammered on Saturday I missed getting any bets in. I run good.

same

Quote

10-21-2010 , 05:32 PM

#468

kdog

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 3,864

Quote:

Originally Posted by bjornb

I got so hammered on Saturday I missed getting any bets in. I run good.

I got the bets in then got hammered on Sunday to kill the pain

Quote

10-21-2010 , 05:40 PM

#469

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

i've been throwing in UFL underdogs to all teasers looking good

9-1 so far

Quote

10-21-2010 , 05:50 PM

#470

Colms

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 693

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsigley

i've been throwing in UFL underdogs to all teasers looking good

9-1 so far

zomg are u crazy, they don't all cross the 3 and the 7!

Quote

10-21-2010 , 06:33 PM

#471

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

i know but i might lay off today so much steam coming in on florida on already the highest spread in history

Quote

10-21-2010 , 06:39 PM

#472

Colms

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 693

haha the tuskers are a force to be reckoned with

Quote

10-21-2010 , 06:43 PM

#473

Colms

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 693

Sacramento has lost games by 17 and 23, I'm guessing dogs are 8-2 unless this isn't the highest spread in UFL History?

Quote

10-21-2010 , 06:54 PM

#474

gfxhjk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 10,757

they were actually favorites in those 2 games

week 1 3 point favorites lost by 17
week 2 4.5 dogs won by 4
week 3 7 point dogs lost by 1
week 5 1 point favorites lost by 23

only one that didn't cover was omaha against las vegas. omaha was 3.5 dogs lost by 12 though i remember something ridiculous happening like fumbling near the goal line early in the game and then getting stopped on 4th down half a yard short