Ah, thanks a lot. Really appreciate it.

lego05,
if you have to bet now
Ravens -7
Jags +1.5
Colts -7
Bengals -6.5
Bears +2.5
Redskins +2.5
Saints -6.5
Cowboys -7
or better for each
are +EV legs for +180 3-teamer or +300 4-teamer

I don't have any outs that have those lines for more than 6 of the group however.

obviously, you don't want each teaser to be a large unit when including that much. The math problem is really complex on how much to bet. I don't even know the answer. I went with 0.4% as the minimum for each teaser and a little more for those that included Redskins +3.

at a projected total of 33 i would personally tease +3 -110

yeah... good point... post #402 should have Bears +3. However, I'm not sure the Bears teaser range is the NFL norm. With the back-up really bad QB, I can see the argument for a heavier range of outcomes outside of the teaser range than one would normally expect.

Hey thanks a lot. I can get 5 of those.

If you wouldn't mind explaining how you figured that out that'd be great. I've really been banging my head trying to figure it out and pretty much relegated myself to just betting +1.5 to +2.5 and -7.5 to -8.5 and maybe the +3 -large number stuff.

If you don't want to that's cool too.

I appreciate you posting this stuff whenever you want to.






EDIT:

Also why only 3 or 4 teamers? Why not +EV for 2 teamers at -110? I assume that -110 has something to do with it.

At -110, you need each leg to hit 72.37% of the time to break even. With 3 team +180 and 4 team +300 the break even point for each leg is 70.71%, as is 2 team +100, which most places no longer offer.

2 team +100 = 70.71% / 2 team -105 = 71.57%/ 2 team -110 = 72.37%
3 team +180 = 70.94%
4 Team +300 = 70.71%
5 Team +450 = 74.01% / 5 Team +500 = 72.48%
6 team +600 = 74.18% / 6 team +700 = 72.30%

pls recheck your math

oops, thanks.

5 team +450 71.11% / 5 team +500 69.88%

I knew I had a 5 team +500 funded for for good reason, should of spotted it on the copy and paste.

Edit: the 6 team is off too, and three wasn't rounded correct but that doesn't matter much.

2 team +100 = 70.71% / 2 team -105 = 71.57%/ 2 team -110 = 72.37%
3 team +180 = 70.95%
4 Team +300 = 70.71%
5 team +450 71.11% / 5 team +500 69.88%
6 team +600 = 72.30% / 6 team +700 = 70.71%

hello - just thought i'd introduce myself and thank you guys for sharing.

read everything on here and SBR about this and have been betting them all reg season. i live in australia so the book has taken ages and still has not arrived.

MyTurnToRaise extra thanks for the extra work in the Faqs thread and Daliman many thanks for the thread and numbers.

i found some extra details by Bill the Cop which is easy to find in SBR but not sure as i took a pretty bad beat yesterday with his subgroups in NCAA.
Road dogs & low totals yada yada.

i'm just wondering y there are so many -7 plays here are they just for fillers, from some handicapping, for variance or because they are +VE ?

hope we all have a great sunday (monday morning for me)

nice to see 1 or 2 handles i recognize (i'm subs in other places)

best of luck every1

sorry found it all out by actually doing some work - my bad. guess
i am more stoned then i thought...couldn't re-edit my last post for some reason?

anyway good luck every1

haven't kept up with Wong's really for 2 years so this is going to be noob:

what does the data say about when to do the bets? ie. is your win % better if you tease off the closing line, or a random time during the week.

or do you guys just not care and place bets when you have the time to do so?

haven't kept up with Wong's really for 2 years so this is going to be noob:

what does the data say about when to do the bets? ie. is your win % better if you tease off the closing line, or a random time during the week.

or do you guys just not care and place bets when you have the time to do so?

Place as close to kickoff as possible.

I'm way over exposed on Wongs today....

did you put your sunglasses on before you went all in though

it matters

washington and dallas are gonna *** my 4 teamers i knows it!!1

one time!!

Was looking at a big win until Cinci **** the bed

grrrrrr salad got tossed

Wonged JAX, WAS, and BAL. Winner!

A question: is it bittersweet if the teams all cover outright? Does that mean that the Wong's were unprofitable, from an opportunity cost standpoint?

Also, my book now has 3-teamers at +160. I should find a different book for the 3 teamers, correct?

No. Yes.

QFT

I found a guy/site that pays out even odds one two teamer 6 points and have been absolutley crushing them this year. I think I've only lost one leg so far

If you've only lost one leg all year its pretty clear you don't have the faintest clue what you're doing.