is there a significant difference between the difference between a [assume the juice is the same or whatever]

home dog of +7.5 and +1.5
and
road dog of +7.5 and +1.5

? serious question

<deleted>

i guess what i don't understand is that, point values aren't that much different for home/road

there is a pretty huge edge on 2 team teasers. i don't think the difference between the value of points is enough to suddenly make the bets unprofitable

the only ways they would be unprofitable is if the lines weren't efficient and in which case betting the other side should be profitable.

i think the problem was whenever wong wrote the book, lines weren't set as efficient [plus who knows what source he used] but i mean we have like 5+ years of line data from every major online book since then. i'm sure the point value between home/road difference is negligible and not enough to cause one subset to be unprofitable if the line is set correctly.

anyway who knows - i take a different approach to teasers that isn't just braindead tease these numbers except in these cases which i think a bunch of people here do too but they just keep getting told "this isn't a wong teaser!!!!!!" or told they're wrong.

neowong teasers IMO

and if anyone wants to compare heres pinny open/close from 06 on [not including this season]

feel free to check. probably have to do some work to convert like -3 +125 to -2.5 or whateevr

http://www.bestusfootballodds.com/nfl06to09.csv

like this

elohel, you're right, Bodog is a sh tty book...for thinking you might have an edge.

What are you using as a cutoff for totals? I see three, maybe four.

In terms of relative moneylines, there's a significant difference, yes.

Glad I saw this first because I almost made a more detailed reply against my better judgment.

I'll throw you one more bone--ignore the idea of which side is correct, i.e. "betting the other side." If road favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 cover at 53%, and road favorite teasers of those numbers cover at 71.5%, should you use those teaser legs at -110?

Wong didn't write that chapter. Groovinmahoovin is being a bit of a dick by being vague about whether or not he is the same person as me, so I'm going to sort of "out" him by pointing out that he edited the second edition of Wong's book so he probably knows who wrote what in that book.

Actually, the more efficient the lines, the better teasers perform. DUCY?

In Conquering Risk, by Fuestel and Young, which was recommended to me by ImStillBen, the reader is told that road favorite teasers are terrible. Fuestel worked for the sharpest sportsbook in the world for years. And with that, I finish my participation in this thread.

Citing known pseudo-expert Justin7 is laughable.

You can't "middle" a road fave with a Wong teaser and a ML. Maybe polish middle but hello negative skew.

beetman is making some absurd argument about asymmetric home/away scoring distributions which may or may not be true. He's going about it in a roundabout way and rather unclearly.

no but i don't think you understand what i'm saying

- Old data to form the %s in SSB was from inefficient lines due to their being different betting conditions back then [Vegas or local - both of which who could just cut you off whenever they want]
- Since 04 or whenever Pinnacle became huge (I know they've been around since 98) the market changed. Most books couldn't purposely give out bad lines on certain subsets knowing people would bet them either way or they would get crushed. Some books still do this (bodog) but they'll deal duel lines or just ban you if you bet on the other side too often
- More efficient lines leads to there being a negligible difference between road favorites/home favorites since the point values are essentially similar.

Sure people have line data from the 1980s, but does it mean anything? Where did these lines come from? USA Today? Local bookie? A random casino in Vegas? No one knows. It was just compiled by some guy and put on the internet. Now it's possible to make a database of every line move for every major book rather easily. Going forward the data should be more accurate unlike in the past.

Isn't this exactly what I was saying? Lines were less efficient before, more efficient now. A book has 100x more to lose by setting a bad line on a road favorite.

In the early 2000s and during the 90s you could make tons of money just blindly betting home dogs. They were covering at a 58% rate or something ridiculous like that. You can't do that anymore. There was an obvious bias built into the line in the past which had the effect of road favorite teasers appearing to be worse than they actually are and home underdog teasers to appear better. If books still did this they would be out of business.

Never read the book so no idea. Did he reference his source for the data?

IMO all data pre 04/05 should just be thrown out. There has been enough games played since then to provide support for hypothesis people have and we know the data is valid and the lines more efficient.

Chiefs +361 appears relevant to this discussion.

New Orleans Saints -7 -104 -330 OVER 45.5 -105
Arizona Cardinals +7 -104 +289 UNDER 45.5 -105

Denver Broncos +7 -102 +277 OVER 38.5 -105
Baltimore Ravens -7 -106 -315 UNDER 38.5 -105

Clearly Baltimore is a vastly superior leg...

atrainpsu wins

not a wong teaser tho!!!!!!!!

This is an outrage and it is with great indignation that i regard such an outrage. Guys if you're just picking teams, there is a separate thread for that. Lets keep this on topic, lines that cross both the three and the seven.

Btw the one book I have funded has Redskins +3 -125. Do you guys think this will move to a 2.5? Should I wait to see if it does, or do you think it is okay to tease now even though it is not yet a Wong.

QFT!!!!!

You shouldn't tease it because it doesn't cross the 3...

But seriously, barring some expert handicapping or knowledge of how lines will move it's usually best to wait. I would only consider otherwise if a -8.5 is leaning towards -9, or a +1.5 is leaning towards +1. This is pretty much the opposite. The +2.5 is leaning towards +3 and picking up the 9 on the tease isn't really worth much.

FWIW I agree with you that data from the last five years should be considered more strongly than all historical data since 94. The game does evolve. But road favorites are not a profitable subset then either.

dunno from 06-09 i have 22/29 for 75.86%

Obviously I have to be in complete agreement with the entire content of the book or I shouldn't recommend it. Nailed me.

Can't believe you are showing your face in a teaser thread after that Dal/NYG performance.

Can't believe you show your face anywhere.

Why do 75% of the games list -110/-110 for the total price?

I presume that's really him, and if so, that's the dumbest insult of all time. That is the most normal looking person I've ever seen. If a kid draws a picture of a person, it looks exactly like that.