For dogs between 1 and 3, it's easiest to just look at Pinnacle's money line. Tease any dog that is about +130 or lower (on a line that cross the 3 and 7 of course).

Doh. Can't believe I didn't think of this. I'm usually so good at comparing Euro books to Pinnacle too.

Is it possible to see the Pinnacle drop downs without an account? Don't think I can, but may be missing something simple.

same q

nope

create an account
so what if it isn't US friendly
you are not planning to bet with that account, so make up some bull**** to see the drop down

or, use TomG's very helpful advice

I went this way. Perhaps a stupid question, but what am I supposed to be looking at? At their lines each game there's 7 different lines in the dropdown menu. Am I supposed to look at the default one or whichever one is closest to -110? Or is there actually something else I'm supposed to be looking at?

the one closest to -105 or -104 on Pinnacle as they have cheap ass pricing

Ok, thanks.



What if there was a +3 -106 and a +2.5-103 ... which one do you go with? I'm kinda joking ... but also I actually wouldn't know.

Thanks MyTurn2Raise for your help in this thread and the MNF one.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the Tom McCowley numbers: http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...0#Post12042127

From them to me it doesn't seem as though you should ever bet two team teasers if a 3 team teaser is available and you are getting -110 on the 2 team and +180 on the 3 team. Is that correct?

And you wouldn't play a 4 team teaser unless there 5 games and you have a small edge. Right? (assuming the -110, +180, +300, +465).


Wanted to ask .... it seems as though a lot of people in this thread are doing a bunch of 2 and 4 team teasers.



And what would you be looking at to determine win %? Would it just be from the Wong Teaser FAQ thread at this part here:

That has:

Home Favs = 79.75%
Visiting Favs = 76.2%
Home Dogs = 77.45%
Visting Dogs = 73.5%

and of course as it said overall at 76.1%.


Is there something else anybody does to estimate your win % to determine the amount to bet?



Thanks for any responses and help.

ev vs eg question

complex question lego05

the key is to have an accurate push chart so you can estimate what pct you are gaining with the tease

lots of debate about how many years you use for data and how you smooth the data out
Wong touches upon it briefly in Sharp Sports Betting
Yao has a few chapters were he creates push charts in Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting

of course, there are easy cheats.
SBR tools has some relevant push charts with its half point calculator.
Kdog posted a link in post #150 itt with discussion on it.
there is this recently posted chart at roughingthepunter

of course, one would like to wait as close to kickoff as possible before placing the teasers as they are based off of gaining a valued range on the closing line. Near kickoff, both pinny and 5d will put up some alternative spreads where one can calculate the no vig price at 7.5 or 3.5 spread. Much easier to just add in the push on the 8 or 3 to those numbers to get an accurate measure of the likely win rate of the teaser leg.

Once you know how often you expect the teaser leg to win, it's a matter of using kelly to determine the best bets for estimated bankroll growth. Peeig put up some good links itt on how to do that.

Yes, this is a lot of work. But knowing how is most the battle. Actually executing it is much easier and just tedious.

Thanks for all the help, I really appreciate it and I'm sure I'm not getting it all.


Is there a guide or something somewhere on how to use push charts or that calculator as one? I'm not being able to figure out myself how to read/use it. I can't figure how you can use this to determine the % you gain on the tease.


As for Kelly Criterion were the numbers in Tom McCowley's thread that I linked above considered correct? He only listed for 73% to 75%, but that's all already done there and seems to say no 2 team teasers at -110 if you have a 3team option.



As for right now I guess all I'd be doing is looking for all games that cross the 3 and the 7 and betting like 1% to 8% of my bankroll on 3 team teasers (depending on how many games there are and if I figure out how to do it then what I figure the win % to be [guess I'll just use the McCowley numbers for like 73% win for now]) except if there's 5 games I may bet like 1% or something on the 4 team teasers.

I may not make the optimal bet sizes but from what I can understand it should still be profitable. If I'm off on that I wouldn't mind being told so.




Thanks a lot.

A spread is a 50/50 proposition. Gaining numbers from 1.5 to 7.5 adds the push prob % to that. 50%+25.5% (according to half-point push %). This is the basic idea but there are problems as MTTR mentions in smoothing out the push %, as a game set at 3 is more likely to end near the 3.

So you just put 1.5 -110 (or -105 or whatever it is?) into that calculator and then add up the numbers in the push probability up to the 7.5? Then add that to 50% and that's supposed to be your win %?

Ok, yea .... I don't understand how the calculator is figuring the push %'s but ok.


But then each game would have a different win percentage. So I guess for a 2 team teaser multiply the 2 winning %'s together and that's your win % for the teaser .... or does this not work that way for some reason?



Thanks.

Thread needs less painful bungling teaser analysis, more Tom McCowley.

First Google result for Tom McCowley is a facebook link for Tom McCawley.

His profile picture is none other than



Well, we gotta backtrack for a minute. I foolishly assumed he was in fact, a him.

Digging further on the main profile page for Tom McCawley, the following is listed.

"People who aren't friends with Tom only see some of her profile information. If you know Tom personally, send her a message or add her as a friend."


Now to take this one step further: I looked a few results down and found another suspect, Tom McCrawley. Now HIS profile picture resembles that of McCowley...




I think I'm onto something here...

how y'all feel about Bama, Iowa, and UConn?

I like Bama at home. Was looking for something to use them with and chose Maryland over the two you listed.

Bad. Wong teasers don't apply to college, but at least these are low-ish for college totals, so they're at least semi-shiny turds.

Is this statement based on what John Ferguson wrote 10+ years ago or have you done independent research & analysis?

http://roughingthepunter.com/showpos...00&postcount=2

So someone nobody knows posted something somewhere saying a person he couldn't name ghost-wrote a chapter in a book nobody cares about.

Tremendous muckraking.

Colts -2
Ravens +7.5

Apparently this is a "true wong".

The Greek left me no choice, hanging Iowa -7 and Bama -7.5 right before gametime...Threw them into a few with the NFL...