not adjusting for underlying ATS (assuming continued above 50%) is very dangerous

Thanks for the advice, will do next time, just a question about that tho.

I use a private book where i meet with a local and on my site, I'm not able to put in round robin teasers so I've gotta place each wager manually.

If I'm doing this Sunday shortly before games start, I feel like it's most likely that while I'm in the middle of doing all the combos, lines might change out of wongable range. So should I just be trying to get in as many as possible early Sunday before they change?

For example when I tried to do it early Sunday last week, the wongs that were available earlier in the week that I would have done (Steelers +2.5, Texans +2.5, Broncos +2.5, Ravens +2.5) weren't wongable anymore (Steelers +1, Texans +1, Ravens +1, only Broncos stayed at +2.5 so no more combos).

Sorry if I'm totally noobish at this, just trying to learn.

nah, last week was a fluke that so many wongable lines moved in the correct direction for those that bet early

worked out lucky for me

Ya seems like I'm gonna get worse lines than closing on virtually all of my bets that I locked in yesterday. Thanks for responding

ok, complete noob Question. in a teaser both teams or all teams have to win right?

yup all teams

thank you lookin forward to trying it out this week

True and BTC certainly has his detractors around forumville. I just linked it because I too lazy to type up the answer to the 5 yr question.

yeah, I know you know your stuff. Just about any sportsbetting forum I visit will have kdog as a currently viewing member. Hell, you are years ahead of me and have probably had a few good chuckles at some of the weaker stuff I've put out there.

It was more a warning to others.

Jets +3 -120 is now wide spread, and, while I'd never recommend them, BetUS has Jets +3 -115. Cross that one off the list.

BTC is pretty clueless when it comes to anything really about sports betting in my limited experience with him. He is nice to share his databases, though.

My first teasers since the apocalypse went 3-0, 1-0

couple question for you sports betting folks =]

ive noticed bodog always releases the small lines (< 3) late like on wednesdays or later. bengals +2 just came out yesterday, and jets didnt get released til the line moved to 3. kc isnt out yet (but supposed to be 2) and neither is is car/tb (although thats 3.5) ive always noticed they did this for small spread games but after reading this thread im wondering if they do this specifically for wong teasers? like are they hoping that the line will move to a better number before releasing it?

and do wong teasers apply to ncaa football just as well as nfl? i dont see why not but just wondering since i havent seen any cfl talk

thanks

No to NCAA. Only NFL.

Sorry if this is a dumb question,but what does this mean?

ridiculous ats covering is skewing the data?

yep

So your saying there is no real data to look at because the past 5 years the numbers of teams covering is abnormal. Have books adjusted for this, or is there even anything that needs to be adjusted? RTM strategy ftw? Possible books don't know how to handicap NFL games anymore

Question, is it possible that there are enough Wong teaser bettors that the books have to adjust their opening lines or would they just adjust the prices on the payout?

emet, the books adjust every way possible.

Many pay less for teasers now. Most books pay -110 for 2-teamers when -100 used to be standard. 3-teamers have been falling to +160 from +180.

Many adjust the spread so that the teases don't cross key numbers and adjust for that by pricing the spread different. For instance, you'll see +9 -124/ -9 +108 instead of +7.5 -108/ -7.5 -108.


and, believe me, the books know how to price and are getting better all the time. Any modern (last 5 years) ridiculous spread covering in a market like the NFL on a particular spread would have the null hypothesis of just variance accounting for that result.

.

Daliman's NFL Wong teasers, Season Cinq: Week 2 thread?

ty!

would sweetheart teasing -7 to +3 and -3 to +7 be of value?

these questions (and answers) are smeared all over sportsbetting forums in the world wide interweb.............I would try there first before coming here and begging like the homeless folks outside of my office do.

the thread title says noob thread and im in here being a noob
obv my mistake