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Old 02-28-2018, 08:28 PM   #726
MrAdvantage
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Do y’all realize how xxxxxxxx ignorant you look going back and forth over all this BS?
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Old 03-01-2018, 04:10 AM   #727
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Making fun of poor people, if you ever have the misfortune of being near one, is standard.
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Old 03-01-2018, 04:19 AM   #728
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Making fun of poor people, if you ever have the misfortune of being near one, is standard.
says the 40 y/o who looks at the ground while walking lol
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Old 03-01-2018, 05:45 AM   #729
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Jesus
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Old 03-02-2018, 09:21 AM   #730
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Where do you look when walking? I'm not gonna trip on the wall.
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Old 03-05-2018, 09:49 AM   #731
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

i saw this in an article the other day and thought it applied nicely to sports betting as well.

Quote:
Professional money managers like to cite four sources of edge or potential for outperformance:

1) Information, through faster, better or more data
2) Analysis, the ability to outthink other investors
3) Behavior, or superior patience, independence and self-control
4) Structure, a business systematically organized to maximize all those edges
legit top sports bettors, where is your edge coming from? how are you working to maintain it and/or create new edges in other areas?
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Old 03-06-2018, 02:07 PM   #732
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
i saw this in an article the other day and thought it applied nicely to sports betting as well.



legit top sports bettors, where is your edge coming from? how are you working to maintain it and/or create new edges in other areas?
you should stop by more often !

i dont like the 1st type, the rat's race.

but then again, maybe all of them are a rat's race.
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Old 03-06-2018, 02:31 PM   #733
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
i saw this in an article the other day and thought it applied nicely to sports betting as well.
Quote:
Professional money managers like to cite four sources of edge or potential for outperformance:

1) Information, through faster, better or more data
2) Analysis, the ability to outthink other investors
3) Behavior, or superior patience, independence and self-control
4) Structure, a business systematically organized to maximize all those edges

legit top sports bettors, where is your edge coming from? how are you working to maintain it and/or create new edges in other areas?
5) Networking, to keep getting new outs to bottom feed off the legit top sports bettors
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Old 03-17-2018, 11:44 AM   #734
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
i saw this in an article the other day and thought it applied nicely to sports betting as well.



legit top sports bettors, where is your edge coming from? how are you working to maintain it and/or create new edges in other areas?
Pretty solid list, a few thoughts:

1) In reality, doesn't happen unless you're the fastest quant with the fastest software and best hardware [often not available to most big investors yet] and got the GOAT co-location. Or you're cheating. In the 'old days' like 10-15 yrs ago in places like Korea you could get the trade prints ahead of the market with a direct exchange feed if bothered to learn how to read it.

2) If we're talking about widely traded stocks, probably ~1% of professional investors do systematically better analysis. You've seen 1 argument btw two 150 IQ people about their DCF models you've seen them all.

3) This is what actually works for most investors who provide systematic alpha for their clients. Contrarian attitude, patience to hold onto a position for 2 years or more [a lifetime in money mgmt], self-control to stop adding to losing positions and not taking profits quickly, discipline not to panic sell at the bottom - probably the most important.

4) is just optimizing for 3) above.

5) is a crucial skill. Anything that magnifies your funnel for idea generation is vitally important. I can't overstress this enough.

As long as it doesn't lead you into playing away games. Playing away games is as dumb as selling at the bottom. I knew clients that lost their entire fortunes on Russian GKOs because they 'knew' Russia would never default on Ruble debt, unlike USD debt. Wrong. They bought all the way down and got margined out at $0.07 on the dollar. Hundreds of millions of dollars woooosh.


#3-5) is why guys like me can beat the market and make a good living as long as you not actually bad at #2.

#1 is actually a hindrance to any normal investor. You can't copy Buffett because he buys whole companies but all you really need is the quarterly reports and an eye on any M+A activity. If you're building a complex model and you're not evaluating, say, KMX credit tranche defaults then you're doing it wrong.

You could have just read, say, Google's qtly report in summer 2010 or 2012 and noticed they were trading at 22x while growing at 32%, highly profitable, and $50 Billion in cash on their balance sheet. That got you a 5-bagger in less than 8 years, no genius required just simple blocking and tackling.
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Old 03-17-2018, 12:05 PM   #735
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Tony Bennett
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Old 03-17-2018, 12:55 PM   #736
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
#3-5) is why guys like me can beat the market and make a good living as long as you not actually bad at #2.
How does 3-5 help you beat the market?
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Old 03-17-2018, 01:26 PM   #737
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

It's explained right there ^^^^ in black and white.

You should just index anyway and not worry over it.
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Old 03-17-2018, 01:49 PM   #738
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
It's explained right there ^^^^ in black and white.

You should just index anyway and not worry over it.
Quote:
3) Behavior, or superior patience, independence and self-control
4) Structure, a business systematically organized to maximize all those edges
Quote:
3) This is what actually works for most investors who provide systematic alpha for their clients. Contrarian attitude, patience to hold onto a position for 2 years or more [a lifetime in money mgmt], self-control to stop adding to losing positions and not taking profits quickly, discipline not to panic sell at the bottom - probably the most important.

4) is just optimizing for 3) above.
I still don't get it

Neither of those points help you beat the market. They only let you maintain the edge you already have.

Might as well add in 8 hours of sleep and a good diet.
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Old 03-17-2018, 06:25 PM   #739
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
Pretty solid list, a few thoughts:



You could have just read, say, Google's qtly report in summer 2010 or 2012 and noticed they were trading at 22x while growing at 32%, highly profitable, and $50 Billion in cash on their balance sheet. That got you a 5-bagger in less than 8 years, no genius required just simple blocking and tackling.
I know very little of what youre talking about in this post so Im just asking here, but I mean this cant possibly be true, right?
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Old 03-18-2018, 04:03 AM   #740
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

his whole post is nonsensical drivel
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Old 04-01-2018, 05:41 PM   #741
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
Pretty solid list, a few thoughts:

1) In reality, doesn't happen unless you're the fastest quant with the fastest software and best hardware [often not available to most big investors yet] and got the GOAT co-location. Or you're cheating. In the 'old days' like 10-15 yrs ago in places like Korea you could get the trade prints ahead of the market with a direct exchange feed if bothered to learn how to read it.

2) If we're talking about widely traded stocks, probably ~1% of professional investors do systematically better analysis. You've seen 1 argument btw two 150 IQ people about their DCF models you've seen them all.

3) This is what actually works for most investors who provide systematic alpha for their clients. Contrarian attitude, patience to hold onto a position for 2 years or more [a lifetime in money mgmt], self-control to stop adding to losing positions and not taking profits quickly, discipline not to panic sell at the bottom - probably the most important.

4) is just optimizing for 3) above.

5) is a crucial skill. Anything that magnifies your funnel for idea generation is vitally important. I can't overstress this enough.

As long as it doesn't lead you into playing away games. Playing away games is as dumb as selling at the bottom. I knew clients that lost their entire fortunes on Russian GKOs because they 'knew' Russia would never default on Ruble debt, unlike USD debt. Wrong. They bought all the way down and got margined out at $0.07 on the dollar. Hundreds of millions of dollars woooosh.


#3-5) is why guys like me can beat the market and make a good living as long as you not actually bad at #2.

#1 is actually a hindrance to any normal investor. You can't copy Buffett because he buys whole companies but all you really need is the quarterly reports and an eye on any M+A activity. If you're building a complex model and you're not evaluating, say, KMX credit tranche defaults then you're doing it wrong.

You could have just read, say, Google's qtly report in summer 2010 or 2012 and noticed they were trading at 22x while growing at 32%, highly profitable, and $50 Billion in cash on their balance sheet. That got you a 5-bagger in less than 8 years, no genius required just simple blocking and tackling.
This guy ph-cks.


I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on CDS swaps as I haven't had much luck factoring that in. That said I'm just a peasant with sub 150 IQ so maybe I just see the world in black & white and not color.
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Old 04-01-2018, 05:49 PM   #742
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr View Post
his whole post is nonsensical drivel
No, you're very wrong.


1 and 2 not really working anymore is a large (but not the only) reason HF returns have been on a downward trend last 20 yrs.

You would be surprised how difficult most people find 3 & 4.

See
Amaranth Advisors
Bill Ackman and Valeant
KKR / TPG and Energy Futures Holdings
Long Term Capital Management
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Old 04-02-2018, 11:53 AM   #743
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

All you stock guys sound and even write the same weird way. Lots of acronyms and short, punchy sentences. Usually has an "obv" in there and someones always "surprised." It reads almost like what I imagine someone lightly on the spectrum would write for the hero's dialogue if he were writing a movie.
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Old 04-02-2018, 08:58 PM   #744
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
All you stock guys sound and even write the same weird way. Lots of acronyms and short, punchy sentences. Usually has an "obv" in there and someones always "surprised." It reads almost like what I imagine someone lightly on the spectrum would write for the hero's dialogue if he were writing a movie.
You mean like this?

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Old 04-03-2018, 01:37 AM   #745
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Is that how you view yourself? lol

I just assumed you two were ethnic but I guess autistic works too
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Old 04-03-2018, 01:06 PM   #746
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Originally Posted by OMGmartingale View Post
You mean like this?

exactly
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Old 04-04-2018, 02:21 AM   #747
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
It's explained right there ^^^^ in black and white.

You should just index anyway and not worry over it.
i missed this gem but lol@u if you think you have any chance of outperforming an index on ur own

delusions of peace

also I didn't realise people were still attempting to do it on their own dime in 2018

that is some retarded ****
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Old 04-04-2018, 02:26 PM   #748
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Originally Posted by lvr View Post
i missed this gem but lol@u if you think you have any chance of outperforming an index on ur own

delusions of peace

also I didn't realise people were still attempting to do it on their own dime in 2018

that is some retarded ****
If you buy an index when that index has an downswing of 20% plus, congratulations, you already outperform it.

you'r welcome!
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Old 04-06-2018, 02:31 AM   #749
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Originally Posted by PaiDaMorte View Post
If you buy an index when that index has an downswing of 20% plus, congratulations, you already outperform it.

you'r welcome!
ok? reading not even once?

honestly thou

how many retards are trading with their tiny 8 figures in 2018? is this really a thing?

what is the point?
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Old 04-07-2018, 03:50 PM   #750
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr View Post
i missed this gem but lol@u if you think you have any chance of outperforming an index on ur own

delusions of peace

also I didn't realise people were still attempting to do it on their own dime in 2018

that is some retarded ****

According to my prime broker of March 31st, I am outperforming YTD, 1 year, 3 yrs, 5 yrs, and 10 yrs. A good start to the year pushed me ahead for 3 years which was the only one that was trailing at year-end.

Probably just a lucky coin-flipper over thousands of long [and fewer short & options] trades, amirite?


But you're finally right about one thing. I certainly don't do it on my own dime. That would be retarded ****
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