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Old 11-01-2017, 02:39 PM   #526
Mihkel05
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rwillia789 View Post
I said top 8% of test applicants from a rich London suburb would yield over 51% in the top 3% IQ bracket.

You said top 1% IQs can easily earn millions per year.

You are a ****.
Then you immediately backed down on your offer to bet when challenged. Your are horrendous at math also.

https://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/iqtable.aspx

NB: That isn't what you claimed even. Welcome to your version of alternative facts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr View Post
1% 3%? Are you rounding up for your own benefit here? Do you actually believe that 1 in 100 people have an IQ of 140 or higher?

Also I never said per year however it wouldn't be surprising for someone with an IQ of 140 or higher to average an income of a million dollars per year over a 40 year career IF they wanted to.
None of this makes any sense. And is weird as ****.
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Old 11-03-2017, 12:16 AM   #527
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Originally Posted by SublettingProblems View Post
This is such an ambiguous statement though. It wouldn't be surprising as in it wouldn't shock you? Or it wouldn't be surprising as in there being a decently likely chance of it (what %?)? The former is fine but pretty much a meaningless statement, it wouldn't "shock" me to see a 120 IQ with a $1 million/year job either, but it would certainly be abnormal.
It would be more than abnormal if you are talking about the corporate world. I bet you couldn't find anyone in a position that earns $1 mill per year with an IQ that low.

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Originally Posted by SublettingProblems View Post
If you take all the 140 IQs and surveyed their income $1 mil/year is absolutely going to be an outlier.
My original post was saying just as easily compared to sportsbetting. How many bettors are earning 1 mill per year? I bet the guy with the 140 iq in this thread isn't earning that much.

also lol@the resident autist calling anything weird
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Old 11-03-2017, 12:47 AM   #528
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

https://pumpkinperson.com/2016/02/11...een-iq-income/
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Old 11-03-2017, 08:30 AM   #529
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

good lol
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Old 11-04-2017, 10:25 AM   #530
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Quote:
According to the 2000 book The Millionaire Mind by Thomas J. Stanley, which reported on a survey of 773 millionaires (defined here by household, not individual net-worth), the typical self-made millionaire is a 54 year-old man. In the year 1998 (when the millionaires were surveyed), it took an individual income of about $340,000 to make the top 1% for 52-58-year-olds. The surveyed millionaires had a median income of $436,000, but because this was household income, their spouses likely contributed, so in individual income they were likely not much higher than the top 1%

The average self-reported SAT score of the millionaires Stanley survey was 1190, which Stanley adjusted to about 1100 because of self-reporting bias (millionaires who were “A students” were more likely to recall their scores than “C students”). Since 90% of the sample were college graduates it’s likely virtually all took the SAT.

Since the typical self-made millionaire in the sample was 54 as of 1998, it’s likely he took the SAT circa 1961 (when he was 17). According to the book The Bell Curve (page 422), if all American young adults (not just the college bound elite) had taken the SAT in 1960, the average score (IQ 100; U.S. norms) would have been 784. Meanwhile prior to 1974, an SAT score of 1300 was considered Mensa level (IQ 130). Extrapolating from these two data points, the average self-made millionaire has an IQ of 118 (U.S. norms); 117 (U.S. white norms).
so much fail lol
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:55 PM   #531
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Originally Posted by lvr View Post
It would be more than abnormal if you are talking about the corporate world. I bet you couldn't find anyone in a position that earns $1 mill per year with an IQ that low.
You must be ****ing joking. And/or spent almost no time in corporate America. I've met hundreds of corp drones with sub-120 IQs that make 7 figs a year in large banks alone.

Hell, senior back-office people make that much easily and not a single one of them is approaching anywhere near sub-genius level.

Mid-tier salesguys on a team that's got the hot product du jour make that easily, I remember when inverse floaters got hot in the prior decade and that desk went from printing almost no trades to printing several hundred million dollars a year. The guy I personally knew on the desk was a bona fide idiot - which is why he was put on a 'dead' sales/trading desk in the first place. He prob made $1-2m+ for a couple years until interest vanished again.

Before that you used to be able to make a very, very good living just rolling 3 mo-1 yr UST notes for rich clients. Huge volume, absolutely no risk! It was probably the easiest way to make $1m/yr in NYC until banks figured out that no matter the volume they weren't actually making enough money after costs to ever make a profit, they cut commissions to literally zero on these. And this was back when $1m in NYC was real, real good money.

I also sat next to a team where one sales guy spotted an obvious flaw in the banks' acct'g P/L software, maybe you need an IQ of ...say 105 to spot that entering the trade one way in the system gave you zero P/L and entering it the other way gave you massive 'profits' on your trade. If your forward trades didn't settle from more than 1 year [very common] it was a free money machine. That guy, and his boss and his boss's boss [neither of whom thought of this but probably realized it] all were making $1-5m a year due to this trick alone.

When it came out the salesman was fired and rightly so, somehow his direct boss avoided it probably because his boss knew and protected him. But that dude made at least $5m for spotting an obvious, obvious flaw [hit this button make $0, hit this button make $huge profits]. Duh.

And it was really no other risk for him because the bank could never admit to bosses or shareholders the P/L system was so easily tricked. He just got a job down the street doing the same job.

There are 'Orange Bloods' at Home Depot some of whom have been greeters their whole career: they are also centimillionaires. Don't have to be a genius if the company you work for has stock that just climbs and climbs for multiple decades.

Last edited by Mike Haven; 11-13-2017 at 08:11 PM.
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Old 11-06-2017, 10:06 AM   #532
HeardARumor
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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We haven't released overnights in over a decade.

There are pros and cons to the service, and fewer people are able to follow all play types successfully (line moves, out sustainability, cost of service) in recent years, but we clearly win enough to provide solid value to the ones who can.
Heard RAS hasn't won a single week this year. Brutal run.
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Old 11-06-2017, 12:05 PM   #533
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Monday morning sides, tuesday afternoon totals. I guess those aren't overnights since they 5 days before full limits.
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Old 11-07-2017, 01:51 AM   #534
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Is Alan Boston still around or still alive? I know he was crushing college hoops a decade or two ago but haven't heard much about him since.

Last edited by RhodyGuy; 11-07-2017 at 02:00 AM.
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Old 11-10-2017, 04:03 AM   #535
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Originally Posted by RhodyGuy View Post
Is Alan Boston still around or still alive? I know he was crushing college hoops a decade or two ago but haven't heard much about him since.
Doubt him and his binders are still winning but he does post on Twitter. Good guy
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Old 11-10-2017, 10:52 AM   #536
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

i actually thought of that crazy fk alan boston when the cbb recruiting scandal went down and ricky pitino got his comeuppance. it made me feel something resembling happiness imagining alan boston's reaction to the whole thing
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Old 11-10-2017, 11:18 AM   #537
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
Low average odds actually have higher variance. Lets stop pretending edge is fixed and set for median BR growth.
Would you be interested in explaining how lower avg odds = higher variance?

I actually found your answer interesting and made a thread in the probability forum, as I too thought higher odds = higher variance but after you made this comment I googled, and all seemed to agree with higher odds = higher variance mostly bloggers, so I and made this thread but the guys in the probability forum seem to agree too that higher odds does = higher variance. I'm not saying they are right either, if I thought you were simply wrong I would not have went to the effort of searching and starting the thread.

Obviously you don' have to explain but be cool if you did.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/2...-odds-1695310/
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Old 11-10-2017, 12:11 PM   #538
lvr
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

In probability theory and statistics, variance is the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean. Informally, it measures how far a set of numbers are spread out from their average value.
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Old 11-11-2017, 03:58 AM   #539
aIexs
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

What about sports betting bankrolls etc?
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Old 11-11-2017, 01:53 PM   #540
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Originally Posted by RhodyGuy View Post
Is Alan Boston still around or still alive? I know he was crushing college hoops a decade or two ago but haven't heard much about him since.
He plays 2/5 NL at Foxwoods nowadays.
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Old 11-12-2017, 11:51 PM   #541
ARCANGEL0
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Would you be interested in explaining how lower avg odds = higher variance?

the lower the odds the more it becomes like a ''virtual coinflip''
the higher the odds the more it becomes like a ''for sure the sun is gonna come out tomorrow''

so

if you bet -2000 and -3000 money lines you will definitely win most of them thus low variance

if you bet -115 through say -130 you will win a lot and loose a lot of them therefore the high variance

high odds = low variance

glgl
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Old 11-13-2017, 01:54 AM   #542
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ARCANGEL0 View Post
Would you be interested in explaining how lower avg odds = higher variance?

the lower the odds the more it becomes like a ''virtual coinflip''
the higher the odds the more it becomes like a ''for sure the sun is gonna come out tomorrow''

so

if you bet -2000 and -3000 money lines you will definitely win most of them thus low variance

if you bet -115 through say -130 you will win a lot and loose a lot of them therefore the high variance

high odds = low variance

glgl
Assume we have a 2% ROI on bets at various odds and we plan to bet 1/2 kelly.

At -110 it equates to 53.43% win % wagering 1.1% of bankroll on each bet
At -1000 it equates to 92.73% win % wagering 10% of bankroll on each bet
At +1000 it equates to 9.27% win % wagering 0.1% of bankroll on each bet

Assuming a starting bankroll of $10,000, after 500 bets the various 95% confidence intervals are
At -110, $7,264-$15,805
At -1000, $7,195-$64,351
At +1000, $8,994-$11,320

Therefore the longer the odds the smaller the variance. Of course if you bet a fixed amount on each and not a variable amount the shorter odds will have smaller variance but that's not kelly nor optimal.

Last edited by Mike Haven; 11-13-2017 at 08:09 PM.
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Old 11-13-2017, 11:28 AM   #543
Mihkel05
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

The last two posts are pretty bad.

The former being just super wrong.

The latter weirdly conflating CI as a measure of variance, when that semi-derpy site utilizes an SD. It also doesn't accurately display bet size, nor am I sure how it utilizes half Kelly when it can't even display the correct wager size in the "Variable box". This is what happens when you use broken tools.

In short, both of you have errant methodologies and the wrong answers.

Please stop shilling that **** site as well.
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Old 11-13-2017, 02:35 PM   #544
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Can you please elucidate us on why low average odds have higher variance.I ve been taught and read the opposite all my betting carreer but would like ,if you are in a good mood, to see you expand a little on the statement you made a couple of months ago

«Low average odds actually have higher variance. Lets stop pretending edge is fixed and set for median BR growth.»
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Old 11-13-2017, 03:11 PM   #545
aIexs
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

actually thinking about it I think I was in the wrong for posting the original question and making a thread, and think he would have answered the question by now if he was interested in doing so, so maybe lets forget I asked the question in the first place.
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Old 11-13-2017, 05:45 PM   #546
Like
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ARCANGEL0 View Post
Would you be interested in explaining how lower avg odds = higher variance?

the lower the odds the more it becomes like a ''virtual coinflip''
the higher the odds the more it becomes like a ''for sure the sun is gonna come out tomorrow''

so

if you bet -2000 and -3000 money lines you will definitely win most of them thus low variance

if you bet -115 through say -130 you will win a lot and loose a lot of them therefore the high variance

high odds = low variance

glgl

"Yup. Solved. Easy Peazy. glglglgl good luck out there guys!"
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Old 11-13-2017, 05:57 PM   #547
andr3w321
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
The last two posts are pretty bad.

The former being just super wrong.

The latter weirdly conflating CI as a measure of variance, when that semi-derpy site utilizes an SD. It also doesn't accurately display bet size, nor am I sure how it utilizes half Kelly when it can't even display the correct wager size in the "Variable box". This is what happens when you use broken tools.

In short, both of you have errant methodologies and the wrong answers.

Please stop shilling that **** site as well.
What are you typing in where it displays the wrong wager size? The calculator also spits out a standard deviation for the sim if you want to go by that. If you think CI is not a good measure of variance then provide a counter example for two sims where a CI is smaller for a sim, but variance is higher. Just like most of your posts if you can't or won't explain why someone is wrong then why even post that they're wrong? I'll stop shilling when you stop trolling.
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Old 11-13-2017, 06:25 PM   #548
Mihkel05
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

Again, that is all nonsense. You have literally added nothing of value. Do you even know the relationship between SD and Var? Obviously not, which is probably why you never bothered to check whether the calc was accurate. But hey. Shills shill.
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Old 11-13-2017, 06:32 PM   #549
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

I didn't realize you wrote that site. Obviously its clear why you're so defensive. You do realize that 2p2 has a pretty solid stance toward people spamming their own sites with affiliate links and paid products?

Beyond that it is just wrong. I mean... Jesus. Why would you besmirch your already terrible reputation with an obviously ****ty/wrong simulator?
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Old 11-16-2017, 10:08 PM   #550
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Re: Who are the legit top sports bettors?

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Where did I say I was so content with it? I have other streams of income and many, many other diverse interests. I'm probably the only person on the planet driving to my 7 AM tee time on a harley playing Dillinger Escape Plan in my helmet. I don't bet sports full time but when/if I did I made more than enough to earn a living. Its an awesome thing to do on the side. I'm sorry your experience has been so sad. I honestly feel pity for you.
Men were afraid, but fear was not their dominating emotion, except in the worst hours. Men hated this fighting, but found excitement in it, often exultation, sometimes an intense stimulus of all their senses and passions before reaction and exhaustion. Men became jibbering idiots with shell-shock, as I saw some of them, but others rejoiced when they saw our shells plowing into the enemy’s earthworks, laughed at their own narrow escapes and at grotesque comicalities of this monstrous deviltry.

They were scornful of all that the enemy might do to them, yet acknowledged his courage and power. They were quick to kill him, yet quick also to give him a chance of life by surrender, and after that were—nine times out of ten—chivalrous and kindly, but incredibly brutal on the rare occasions when passion overcame them at some tale of treachery.
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