Tens of thousands

Why? Run some sims (if you know how), it's not unusual. I've had two break even stretches that were ~12months.

Fair enough. I mean I knew it was possible mathematically but I figured Iowa's edge being larger than most would reduce the chance of a losing year significantly especially across a large sample of positions for the year.

You know virtually nothing about the subject. You are either unable or unwilling to do the math so you say stuff that is totally crazy. (You also make up random numbers, 20% or 50%? This is obvious since its all made up as you've never modeled anything.)

Furthermore the suggestion that Iowa has a greater edge than someone betting a few hundred dollars a pop at wildly off market numbers is just absurd. The edge I'd have under that scenario would be 2-3x what I currently have.

You simply like to post things regardless of whether you know anything about the subject. (This includes your MMA "handicapping" which is obviously losing over a large sample.)

I'm not going to dispute that I didn't run the numbers in this thread, I used estimates because yeah i'm too lazy to do the math for the purposes of a forum thread (over 50% and under 90% to run it up isn't worth a lot, but i'd be surprised if it's not in that range with the parameters specified in thread) and you still haven't either stated what you think a sufficient bankroll would be to be a favourite to not go broke which was the original reason for this conversation.

Obviously i'm well aware that Iowa's edge firing six figures on NFL or NBA is going to be less than some guy betting $500 on Korean Volleyball or South African Rugby Union or whatever, I suppose I was surprised that he could have a losing year, that is all. I completely agree that money won is more important than ROI etc.

It's worth noting those 500-1k bets are relevant for someone starting with a 20k bankroll (but no longer highly relevant once the bankroll is high six figures but at that point the risk of ruin goes away), so that decreases the risk of ruin in the early stages slightly if you have high ROI low limit bets available which they are on plenty of niche markets, remember in this hypothetical we were stating that the person had all of the outs needed to get down the action they wanted with their 20k roll. Do you care to enlighten us as to the percentage of the time that the person goes broke assuming a 3% roi, 200k a month turnover to start with (increasing as the roll does) and drawing 3k a month for living expenses?

If we're going to keep discussing this example, why don't you give us the 'correct' answer?

The most amazing part of this is even after many people have explained/discussed this subject, you still can't even understand how the information you're providing makes 0 sense. It is literally impossible to answer that problem, it is like asking the height of green*2. You don't even realize you're writing nonsense.

Tho on one hand I always wondered what would happen if I had traumatic brain trauma. Good to know that I could still make an underclass living for myself instead of being a ward of the state.

Also, I appreciate you trolling for me doing basic work for you. But my goal here is to point out how utterly clueless you are and that you're the quintessential **** poster (Donald could learn a lot from your diligence to your craft and utter lack of knowledge about the subject). I'm not sure you've ever helped anyone here (well other than to borrow money to gamble). However, you may have great posts in one of the poker forums. Most of your posting in this forum is objectively wrong, or just plain trolling.

The forum would be much better off if you stopped actively trying to harm other people by making up utter nonsense.

Well I tried to have a respectful and constructive conversation with you for the sake of the dude who originally asked the question and out of legitimate interest in your opinion. I guess that was a mistake.

You're clearly a smart guy who is good at sports betting but you really need to learn how to interact with people like a normal human being.

I repeatedly gave my "opinion" which is also the correct way to model the problem. You have literally not understood a single thing I've said. I doubt you could articulate why your proposed "example" is completely impossible to solve, despite seemingly being a professional who has been around the scene for years.

Out of a morbid curiosity, how would you propose interacting with someone who is literally just making **** up without the faintest ****ing clue what they're talking about in a conversation about mathematical optimizations? I think that person is a massive ****tard who is a misanthrope yearning for acceptance. Why else would someone make up fantasies in place of just doing some basic math and actually participating like a normal functioning human being?

I suppose you're right that you gave the guy who asked the question originally an answer of 'run the sim' which would give the range of outcomes.

I don't see why it's impossible to solve and get an actual percentage of the time you'd go broke vs run it up starting with 20k, making 3% ROI bets and turning over 200k a month using half kelly withdrawing 3k from the roll at the end of each month if we actually run the sim or at least get a close estimate. I might actually do it myself out of curiosity when I get some time with various numbers even though i'm not the one that needed an answer.

Anyway, let's move on I guess there's no point in discussing it further at this point.

Honestly there is no stronger indictment of your competence than what you just posted. Lemme know how that sim goes where you find 27 million 3% edge bets.

champions arent made on spreadsheets, folks

I created https://sportsbettingcalcs.com/betti...#bet_simulator for a reason. You're welcome.

I can see the point of Mihkel05.

I played with the calc posted above and for a simple sim I get:

starting BR - 20 000$
ROI - 3%
Live expenses 3 000$/month

The monthly turnover could vary greatly depending on your luck so i will go with number of bets.

Lets assume 600 bets, that's the number of bets that you would need if your BR would stay constante at 20 000$ and your ROI at 3% to make the 200 000$ turnover.

After 1 month or 600 bets, you have 27,75% of being with less money than you started with. On top of that you have to subtract 3000$.

After 6 monts, 3 600, you have 7,49% of of being with less money than you started with. On top of that you have to subtract 18 000$.

I would say that the chance of being broke is very high, probably nearly 100%

i'm neglecting the fact that you can get 600 bets/month with an 3% roi that's around 20 bets/day.

Put an 15 losing bets day on the mixture and you have an interesting recipe.

i don't see why you would expect him to solve it for you when you can do it yourself

Thanks Pai. I'm glad atleast someone wasn't misled by his silly and absurd posting.

Also, keep in mind that there are no underlying systematic biases that occur in Kelly Criterion scenarios. Like fading every Tim Donaghey game or whatever else actually occurs.

SWOOP you do come across as if sportsbetting is the easiest thing in the world with literally no risk of ruin. I've lurked these forums for a long time/ read all the wells... and what you're saying is directly opposite of what the sharps have said at the time of Q and A... (although I have no idea if they're still sharp and if their advice is still relevant in todays markets).

I don't know if rsigley is still one of the best around here? but regardless I remember him posting about an enormous breakeven/ slightly losing sample of -110. If a guy that like is having not stellar results over a big sample even with all the modeling and experience etc... i mean come on... what kind of results do you think a clueless brick is going to have?

Poogs,

Two questions:

1) How did you learn English so fast? Your posts are totally readable. If you hadn't posted the exact same thing on another forum I never would have believed you could have become able to write in an intelligible fashion.
2) What are you going to do when your locals learn they should block 1H correlated CFB parlays?

Find new locals?
Model NHL?

And again i'm not trying to be a dick. But literally the very first thing anyone worth their salt does is do their fkn research.... and one of the very first things to read about is the swings/ variance etc imo....

so it's a pretty safe guess to assume you probably don't have any exp in programming, scripting, data base management, modelling etc... which means you're basically a square compared to the rest of the guys in this forum (don't worry im a square too lol) and that you should probably listen to what they have to say.

A couple more things... you should probably feel really fkn lucky to have run up a few hundred thousand despite not having knowledge of any of the above... and yet also probably ****ting your pants at now knowing you've swam into very very deep waters...

I say take a step back and listen to what these guys have to say and also reduce your unit size

Knowledge is overrated. Just get squarerer outs. Rights poogs.

Its k guys. I got roasted recently for confusing a mathematical tuple with a python tuple. We all derp.

....

This is true.

I hate agreeing with u but this statement is the stone cold nutz

My Pitt defense buddy bet 3k at the mirage on over wash last night and moved the line a half point. 5 k winning betters move lines u turd