Kelly Multiplier: 0.5
Starting Bankroll: $5,000
US Odds: -110
Win Prob: 55.0%
Consecutive Series: 5000

Expected Bankroll: $4,880,825
Median Bankroll: $879,291

Everyone runs better than that except hits.

I started off with a 15k or so bankroll a couple years ago (wasn't full time until a year or so ago though) after being a recreational bettor who broke even a lot for a few years before that and am up to a low-mid six fig bankroll now and i'm not even close to one of the best sportsbettors that post here, but it does seem possible that I could get to a mil within a few years if I can have the outs to get action down. Was firing 2.5%ish to start and am probably doing closer to 2% on average now obviously depending on edge.

Pretty sure having a losing year would be close to impossible if you're actually a decent winner, to put it in poker terms the variance is a lot closer to being one of the top HUSNG or cash players than playing MTTs (where it obviously is possible to have a losing year even if you're one of the best)

I'd say you could make a living starting with 20k IF you have the outs to get down all of the action you want, if you're actually good at betting and you managed to turn over at least 200k or so a month although your br growth would be slowed a lot if you're taking living expenses out of it and your risk of ruin wouldn't be zero

Volume is what makes you a living,turnover is the key metric and also when you are betting thousands of bets per year this type of volume mitigates variance by a large margin speciallt if you are following also a consevartive fractional kelly as you staking method.I remember in the early phase of my carreer i started with less than 10k,however i had to grind,work from 8 to midnight and place a bet in every off market number,Baseball,Bogota Challenger,Womens Soccer World cup,you name it.The key is turnover with a postive ROI and with this volume approach you also get the variance mitigator factor,which if you bet 1-5k per game and 200 per season you might get some whacky years

Great Post,i am trying to emulate the same process and path.The risk of ruin with Kelly is 0,however the risk of a big drawdon is not.I wonder how many of you 6 figure guys are using half kelly still?.i currently use half kelly but when i have that type of roll i am thinking of using 1/3 at least..

Wrong.

Expand.

There is nothing to expand on. He clearly hasn't done the math. If you had actually, you'd realize how silly it sounds to write something like that out.

His last part is ipso facto absurd. How exactly do you not need living expenses from a BR? Do you magically have a second BR? It is just gibberish.

Not everyone goes llterally with a Kelly Bankroll(all possible money available,assets,future income etc) into this when they start.
When i started a couple of years ago with a small BR,i had a BR aside for my expenses due to the fact that if had a big loss,i could still pay the place i lived in,and my monthly expenses.
The other factor was Compounding,i didnt want to take any penny of my small br at that point

So I explain to you why his post is nonsense. Then you proceed to write a narrative that is a total non sequitur and basically ignores the time I spent trying to educate you.

And people genuinely wonder why there is no actual useful posting. It really is the tragedy of the commons.

Some people live cheap. It obviously wouldn't be close to viable for most people if you're supporting a family of 4 in New York or whatever but if you're a random dude living in random town with no debt or people relying on your money other than yourself it should be possible.

If you're turning over 200k a month at say a 3% roi (both of which would be doable if you're good at betting have access to a bunch of books that are soft and have a lot of outs to get action down with a 20k roll in that you're turning the entire roll over once a day on the weekend days (160k/mth) and getting some minor midweek action (40k for a month seems more than reasonable for midweek) that'd be 6k a month in EV (you can live off 3k a month in most places, granted not in a luxurious fashion, or less in a non-first world country).

Yes, it would slow bankroll growth drastically if you're taking a few k of that out to live off and increases your risk of ruin, but it's theoretically possible and i'd say you're definitely a favourite to run it up if that's the case as opposed to go broke. I wouldn't recommend it unless you're young/single/living somewhere cheap/have no one depending on your income and have a fallback plan though.

Out of curiosity what is the minimum roll that you, an expert sportsbettor would require in order to run it back up to infinity while also living off your profits? I'm pretty confident I could do it on 30k or so assuming I could get all of the action down I wanted to and I live in a first world country with a slightly higher cost of living than the US average and i'd get there starting with 20k with a higher risk of ruin a decent percentage of the time assuming I was willing to live cheap for the first few months at least. You live in Estonia where the average annual income/costs of living is slightly lower right? I'd be shocked if you couldn't do it with 20-30k assuming you're as good at sports betting as you claim? How much do you think you'd need to run it up if you had to start over, but assuming that you had the access you needed to get action down?

Using EV is laughably wrong.

Yeah, if risk of ruin is unacceptable and if that's the case then obviously you need to be far more conservative with starting bankroll estimates if you're also living off it. Obviously there's a wide range of outcomes and nobody runs exactly to EV. If you have a fallback in life and you're fine with failing 10-15% of the time or whatever though it's clearly possible to succeed well over 50% of the time in running a 20k roll up to a point where risk of ruin becomes zero. It's impossible to do the math without knowing what the living expenses would be but you'd clearly succeed well over half the time on 6k a month ev and 3k a month living expenses on a 20k BR.

You didn't answer the question what starting bankroll would you need, in your mind, to be able to both live off the bankroll and run it up to infinity etc if you could get down any action that you wanted?

emotional reasons

Overall idea regarding the ability to start with a smaller BR if your have outs,strong work ethic and turn your BR several times a month its the same i have,and i experienced in the early phase of my carreer.However i think you are throwing many arbitrary numbers to the table..
In what the exact number to start concerns i also agree,it varies a lot according the place expenses and conditions you live in.I started 2 years ago with 10 k,but i was 24 lived alone in Lisbon(capital of Portugal)where 2,5k euros a month is the avg middle class income.I had also acess to all UK bookies,since i lived in London the year prior starting my gambling journey professionally.
So 10k for me was enough but if you are living in Palm Springs like Mihkel who needs to pay golfing fees,marine fees,chauffeur etc you need probably 100k plus to start

Did either of you actually bother to run a simulation on this or we still just tossing out numbers and fundamentally flawed math. (lol @ EV, no one who has a clue on the subject ever mentions it)

Didn t mention anything about EV or gave an example of an arbitrary number.10 was effectively enough for me when i started,but i live in Portugal,had a lot of outs,and basically my hour rate was very poor..i had to grind from 8 to midnight to compensate in terms of turnover the lack of initial capital.i doubt there are many people who can do that.In gamblimg you have to be Brilliant or work very hard to make it as a pro,and ideally both,i am not brilliant so i go big on tryng to learn from people like you and go big in hours i put in.Maybe one day i can get closer to you Mikhel and move to florida and we can play 18 holes there

You should get a job. People vastly overstate the quality of the advantages and vastly understate the negatives of variable income. But this is basic human nature.

I guess someone like yourself would likely be unable to get a reasonable entry level position (same for Swoop I'd assume) and are stuck living with incomes that are equivalent to the underclass. Whatever you wanna do. I have no interest in being a "professional gambler" it is just a job like anything else and should be evaluated as such.

I just think the two of you have no concept of basic math and out of pure unabashed ignorance are providing a meaningful negative contribution to this forum by just making **** up that may result in people making extremely poor life choices because no one bothers to point out how utterly clueless your arguments are. There is really nothing substantial to them. They are simply narratives. While I'm sure you think your anecdote is interesting, providing someone with a basic explanation on how to model the situation (which anyone who is attempting to go pro at today should be able to do) is infinitely better than the nonsense that is being spouted. Essentially figure out what you monthly nut is, figure out how much volume you're currently getting down, model it, if you are at a low RoR and have a decent fallback plan, great. If not, keep at it part time.

sounds like someone has never met a poker player

Thremp why don't you enlighten us with your wisdom and tell us exactly what the 'correct' starting bankroll is based on your simulation instead of randomly calling us 'poors who can't math'.

Also nobody cares that you have no interest in being a professional gambler personally, the question was 'is it possible' not 'is it optimal'. You haven't shown me anything that says it's not possible assuming that the person attempting it has a fallback plan for the 20% of whatever of the time they run below expectation early. It's not at all hard to walk into a 40k+ a year job if you live in a decent part of a first world country (if you doubt that at all we can bet on it and i'll go and randomly find a job within a few weeks that pays that) and while that is a very 'average' and unimpressive salary you can live on it and we all acknowledge that the idea is that it's a fallback plan, not a first choice for anyone who attempted this hypothetical and anyone who doesn't live in a first world country and doesn't have this option available needs to make less money/has lower living expenses which increases their chances of success significantly.

I'm even over last 8 months. If my roll was 20k and I'm drawing down 3k a month how much do I have left?

Zero. I'm not claiming it's possible with a zero percent risk of ruin, i'm saying it's possible with a sub 50% risk of ruin.

wtf is going on with this guy mikhel or thremp(basshing other people on forums since the early 2000´s) or suzanne i dont care,this guy needs a Psychiatrist.selling narrative?i told my story only.underclass?5k per month is what the Portuguese prime minister earns in Portugal.Leading people to poor life choices?i gave special emphasis to the point that gambling is very hard.
This guy is completely delusional

I've had one losing year and one BE year thus far in my 9 year career over a stretch where I was a .01%er.

That actually really surprises me. I wouldn't have expected that you'd have had a losing year.

Approximately how many positions did you take that year if you don't mind me asking? If it's more than a few thousand that's very surprising to me.