Quote:
Originally Posted by SwoopAE
I suppose you're right that you gave the guy who asked the question originally an answer of 'run the sim' which would give the range of outcomes.
I don't see why it's impossible to solve and get an actual percentage of the time you'd go broke vs run it up starting with 20k, making 3% ROI bets and turning over 200k a month using half kelly withdrawing 3k from the roll at the end of each month if we actually run the sim or at least get a close estimate. I might actually do it myself out of curiosity when I get some time with various numbers even though i'm not the one that needed an answer.
Anyway, let's move on I guess there's no point in discussing it further at this point.
I can see the point of Mihkel05.
I played with the calc posted above and for a simple sim I get:
starting BR - 20 000$
ROI - 3%
Live expenses 3 000$/month
The monthly turnover could vary greatly depending on your luck so i will go with number of bets.
Lets assume 600 bets, that's the number of bets that you would need if your BR would stay constante at 20 000$ and your ROI at 3% to make the 200 000$ turnover.
After 1 month or 600 bets, you have 27,75% of being with less money than you started with. On top of that you have to subtract 3000$.
After 6 monts, 3 600, you have 7,49% of of being with less money than you started with. On top of that you have to subtract 18 000$.
I would say that the chance of being broke is very high, probably nearly 100%
i'm neglecting the fact that you can get 600 bets/month with an 3% roi that's around 20 bets/day.
Put an 15 losing bets day on the mixture and you have an interesting recipe.