me: self employed, started watching lol lpl with no sports due to covid - started kind of liking it and noticed that the chat seemed pretty good at predicting upsets during the draft

bet a bit minimally towards tail end of spring split and it was surprisingly effective, didn't track and acr doesn't give total bet history but returns on minimal betting for stuff i was watching anyway surprisingly decent

going forward, going to track it here:

full disclosure, this is part of my no deposit acr challenge, may actually cheat and deposit some money so i don't have to be such a nit

these units are tiny and i'm doing this for fun as watching it anyway

day 1, got in late, missed draft but v5 had a healthy lead and live betting still live so hammered in some units on v5 and then some more right before they closed betting since they had just won another team fight

map 2 the draft liked v5 quite a bit so hit them up again along with o27.5, v5 win but kill total just 27, feels bad man

end of that v5 sweep i risked 7.73 units and returned 12.3

for rng v omg rng were heavy favorites and nobody cared about draft just talking about the early retirement of an rng guy due to injury who used to be one of the best in the world but there seemed to be mild support that omg had a better draft. my gut said don't bet but i'm a degen and bet omg and the over and rng blew them out with a quick victory - need to get more discipline if i ever start wagering real money here

next map again no chatter so took rng -4.5 and o25.5 of course it's a huge score but at least rng won

gotta learn to follow the system, stop betting o/u without conviction and not lay down action if chat doesn't discuss the draft

on the day +1.24 units on 13.21 risked

i did this years ago when i was still playing myself.
if you had a good understanding of the champions and which team scales better into the lategame, you could find ridiculously good spots.

i'm getting there, putting in more and more input on my own very slowly but still relying heavily on the wisdom of the 9 year olds

had a bunch of success in this last year and posted to the crowdsource syndicate but moved it to a separate thread because people there are more about model derived stuff from the pros not "rickroll bets with the chat" which isn't isn't actionable because by the time you read it here it's already happened - going to try to not post live because then it'll just be like tweeting - just going to keep it all up on excel and share the +/- units at the end

gotta say, every couple drafts the chat is pretty unanimous that one team matches up much better against the other and those have been pretty reliable,

that and being able to get -220 in live betting when its 12-2 and a 6k gold lead is pretty ridiculous

day 2:

got in at the start of map 3 with sn vs we and without much info and a tie game got SN at +172 to win simply based off that not being a fair price - would be the only successful one of the day

for vg vs blg there wasn't much chatter about the draft so i didn't bet, i somewhat preferred VG both team and draft but they were heavy favorites so didn't bet

a few minutes in and it's still very much tied but the lines had moved drastically where blg was +351 etc so did blg map 1, blg series, blg +1.5, o2.5

been told about the books getting advanced feeds but several minutes passes and still no difference but later in the game vg just steamrolls them in a blowout

map 2 draft didn't have much comments so I faded but got the o25.5 kills since neither team had much for tanks/defense and of course my kill o/u predictions remains utterly terrible, although this one close, vg win map 2 in a quick game (another aspect to no tanks/defense, really gotta reconsider the assumptions i make with them or at least stop punting it) so i lose it all

-3.58 units on 6.3 wagered on the day

-2.34 overall

day 3 v5 vs omg - last year omg would be a clear favorite here but v5 had a surprising win last time (albeit vs a bad team) and omg was just awful in their last showing (albeit vs a pretty good team) but sample size is 1 so v5 were at major plus odds since they were the worst team in the history of the league this spring

map1 not knowing yet enough about how teams work together i actually liked the OMG draft by quite a bit but the chat was unanimously chatting about wtf is omg doing - this is the moment i look for so jammed in v5 +1.5 for series, v5 for series, v5 +4.5 kills, & then after 10 minutes with a slight lead they opened up straight bets so I jammed in another one at +153 to win map1 straight up

sure enough, omg actually did more damage than v5 but lost in a complete blowout because their team didn't fight well together, something the draft chat 9 year olds very easily recognized

map2 the 9 year olds seemed to like v5 again but after the blowout the odds went to -169 and they are still terrible to just put a unit on the under because i'm a sicko with plans to live bet but by the time an advantage appeared no more betting available but would have put a unit on omg

v5 won map3 for the series win

then went out about my day, checked in on the phone and saw i was able to catch the map2 draft so loaded up the bet options for estar in the event i went in that direction, decided no good info but when i switched windows to clear the bets my fat finger tapped execute instead of clear and whoops

of course lgd win next games so what would have been a nice day is voided by a fat finger error, still counting in the results though because this is bound to happen when multitasking on my phone while trying to keep the fact i'm live betting esports based on the input of children on the dl

-1.81 units on the day, -4.15 units overall

no fat finger error I'm +2.59 units, pretty gnarly

caught tail end of the fpx vs lng, really wanted lng because odds were pretty absurd like +400 or something but draft favored FPX - first time i saw a clear "draft chat winner" lose so was happy the FPX odds were so bad that i didn't do much more than bet an over that finally won and then later they added a fpx-9.5 so hopped on board (also seems they got rid of the default 4.5 kill spread which is bad since that spread was so low it'd rarely pop up and was a good way to get an otherwise -300 line at like -115 instead

of course lng has a huge upset and win

then there's RW vs TES, draft kind of favors TES but the odds are pretty awful and TES is missing a key player who's so I'm hesitant to jump in at like -400 or whatever it was, RW nearly win, basically got the enemy base down to <1% health and then choked to the much better team

RW then has a draft that we are looking for, the kind where the chat laughs at how awful it is but TES looked pretty bad having a support bench guy play as ADC so I'm still not betting the -500 or whatever it was, line moved down to -220 so hammered it and then it went back up to -400 before they closed the action and TES won with ease

+1.9 units on the day, -2.3 units overall

today no bueno, heavy favorite in rng beat vg and i got in a bet when line moved to -128 but that was it

then on suning vs jdg was a disaster, suning has looked really good this year but jdg are arguably the best in the world, with a draft mildly favoring suning in map one i got a bunch on suning at really good +odds where they just needed to win a single game

end result was two very close matches that could have easily gone either way and went to jdg, this doesn't often happen and happened a bunch this year where i was on the wrong side of a very close game

despite the bad results so far, it's more my lack of discipline to not bet when draft chat doesn't scream "zomg what a bad draft" as whenever the chat feels pretty strongly those have all worked out

-6.52 units on the summer season for a -15% roi including the fat finger error

today was good, the chat reacted pretty strongly to a few drafts so i wagered 2 units as opposed to 1, once it was a heavy dog too with WE

40.93 units wagered
10.55 units profit

would have been a monster day but one of the winners i bet heavily didn't cover the spread, something that rarely happens

+4.03 units on the season

if i just stopped betting o/u i'd be up 17.62 units, so i've decided to stop since i clearly can't do this without 9 year olds chatting and they sadly never talk about the amount of kills

so no more o/u from here on out

today was frustrating, the slate kept disapearing from the book (even loading the specific url would just take me to the menu) and then when it did come back had extremely limited options and closed them before draft began

obviously have no idea what the live odds would have been but would have but in the lng v rng draft there was a slight advantage to lng and at such plus odds would have put single units to win the map and the series and they (honestly considered blind betting lng earlier in the day because they looked good last game and rng is not consistent) and of course lng ended up winning

in map2 the chat universally did the wtf is rng doing type of chatter, this is where i would have bet 2-3 units but it wouldn't let me, lng took an early lead and the slate popped back up and quickly tried to hammer in 5 units and said no because match had already started

same thing again with next game but that wouldn't have gotten me much because the overwhelming favorite won both games and draft was neutral in map1 and slightly preferred underdog in map2 so i likely would have pushed or lost to vig overall in that one

anyway, if i'm going to keep doing this i'll probably need to find another book, been meaning too anyway because this one doesn't have many options given it's a poker site first and foremost

Bovada has live betting if youre looking for a major book. 5dimes might as well, but that one I'm less sure of.

thanks will look into those

today went just about perfect, the live betting options were available again and even better there were no o/u options, then late in the day they offered one and I figured "it's a sign"

nope, it's a sign i gotta just avoid those full stop until I know what I'm doing as it was the only losing wager of the day

was fortunate that i could bet -260 on the best of 3 series when LGD had a 9-3 lead in map1 so hammered that one and then in map2 for edg the chat said all the things i was looking for so I put in 5 units and then another 5 at the same rate after they got a kill in the opening seconds

got a little lucky as they fell behind then made some great plays to win but i genuinely feel i was running pretty bad earlier so see this as normalization more than anything else

sadly it was all heavy favorites who won today but a nice day overall based on volume

34.41 units wagered for a 12.66 unit profit

for the season
118.94 units wagered, 16.69 profit, 14% ROI

disastrous day, not much going on in draft but 3x the dog went to an early lead & had better late game so I hammered live betting and then later on they had some disastrous choices like having a group of 3 charge into a group of 5 etc

just a disaster of a day, feels unlucky but honestly this should be a teachable moment for me to stick to the plan on simply not bet withou the chat signals

-11.2 units on the day
+5.49 units on the year

missed beginning of the day, for map2 of the first matchup the chat was freaking out about it being such a long game with so many kills, same with commentators who usually don't make many predictions, literally never happened before so i slammed home 10 units on o24.5

game results in a 23 kill blowout that ends incredibly quickly - stand by the decision, i think if that same draft happened 10x more times the over hits far more often but it's a disapointing result nonetheless

-8.1 units on the day and back in red

no good info in the draft today and missed the first series but saw that TES was an absurd favorite over OMG, so much to the extent that I was getting huge odds on OMG winning or even keeping it close - which they did

TES is good but OMG is capable and before map 1 the odds were TES -1200 and OMG +691

waited until draft for each move and while chat did favor TES heavily, it wasn't based off the draft

hammered in OMG +1.5 for the series, o2.5 games and OMG +8.5 for each map as well as a single unit for them to win series and each map (each map was like +450 lol)

OMG won map 1 and lost some very close matches in maps 2 and 3

really glad that I was able to make some +EV moves just recognizing absurd value without needing info from the chat kiddos

+17.1 units on the day
+14.49 on the season, 8% ROI

wow, estar was so upset over their upset loss to blg they fined a player a month's salary for not taking a standard ability for his player role

https://dotesports.com/league-of-leg...t-taking-smite

been a lot of upsets so far this year, which is why i don't understand why sometimes the lines can be +/- 600 or greater - no team has that kind of edge and even when they do they can misclick, lag out, etc

today no bueno

no good info in draft but RW had pretty good odds to drop some units on an upset and when i could bet them at +8.5 fairly deep into a tie game did so and later they just got blown out in some incredibly one sided games

made back some with some good wagers on SN and luckily the book was closed for the map3 draft when everyone was ridiculing the EDG draft so would have lost about 3-5 units there had betting been open as it was a close game but SN eventually lost despite being 65% favorites according to the KFC algo

-9.74 units on the day
+4.75 on the year 2% ROI

today stuck with the plan, which was tough because i actually disagreed with the chat most of the time but still bet with the chat - both times looked grim losing the first match but then swept the next two

book was unresponsive at times so both times was able to get in more action on the losing matches than the winners, if book were stable and not randomly shutting down early would have been a much bigger day

didn't believe in V5 because they were so terrible and at -odds didn't like one bit but the chat really liked their compositions in each draft, later betting RNG was a much easier ask because they are one of the best teams but at such massive +odds because they were against a team just a little better - rng also has a guy who plays under the name of betty who can literally just take over a game and win them himself - which he did here twice - always consider RNG at +odds because Betty can crush

+10.19 units on the day
+15 on the year, 6.7% roi

great day, hammered in an early bet for the first time when i saw estar were laughably the dog vs lng (today i learned recency bias in esports betting is massive)

legit considered a max wager instead of my lol sized units for this absurd value but wimped out because the entire purpose of this is to take advantage of live insights - whoops

one of the best teams in the world then predictably destroyed a mediocre team in the lpl - funny part was halfway through map 1 the odds for maps 2 and 3 dramatically shifted as people realized the skill gap was real

couldn't get much volume in because the live betting was sketchy but for first time was able to get some bets in on korean games and those normally close betting at start of the draft so that's encouraging

+6.79 units on the day (despite not being able to wager on what would have won so should have been closer to 10)

+21.73 units on the season 8.62% roi

weird day, live betting up for the korean leagues that i'm far less familiar with and closed the chinese league but probably helped me out because would have bet incorrectly on 3/4 lpl games (stand by they had better drafts but just played terribly)

took advantage of some horribly mispriced korean action due to the world's best being on one team, when i heard both teams were subbing heavily today i confidently locked in a bunch of bets on o2.5 games at crazy plus odds etc on the first sign that the heavy dog didn't screw up the draft for map 1 - better team still won but not in a sweep so had a nice day overall and the dog almost won too in which case would have been a fantastic day

+4.19 units on the day
+25.92 on the season, 9.63% ROI

hit a perfect storm today where RW got a really early lead so much that I immediately put in a RW +1.5 and an o2.5 hedge, the SN just steamrolled them

someway somehow I was still allowed to place a live bet on SN at only -162 (hilarious because I got in a unit during the draft on them at -201) while up 12-4 in basically an unlosable spot - I think the algo held on due to this kind of swing rarely happening as usually when a team jumps out 3-0 like RW did they just snowball and win

backed the truck up with 20 units (as stated using lol sizes) because this was just too good to be true and now +14 units after map1 where SN just blew them out and won quickly

rest of the day not so great, EDG came out to an early lead in map1 and still had positive odds to win the series so put in a bunch of units there and they lost two close ones in 2 & 3 so only up a little bit more on the day

+16.54 units on the day
+42.46 units on the season, 12.15% ROI

starting tomorrow I'm increasing the unit size

Why?

because he is winning why else

Perhaps I mispoke previously, not so much increasing unit size but going from absurdly conservative static units to a more traditional approach

I haven't been doing a standard rate of 2% of BR but rather a static amount that was more or less 1% when i started this endeavor

the orginal unit size was based on me acknowledging i am jumping in with no real understanding if there is actually an edge (ie i'm testing a hypothesis that can't be back tested because it's based on live reads so needs to be done via trial by fire)

with +150 units in weeks prior to this thread and this thread I'm now confident enough to employ a more standard approach of 2% of BR for unit size, it'll also keep me more honest where I'll be less likely to put in "hey it could happen" bet like I have been with the o/u and also prevent me from "padding stats" ie that 20 unit bet yesterday would be more like an 8 unit wager etc