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11-20-2018 , 03:14 AM
#26
PokerHero77
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As I stated above, if your model is good at predicting precursors that lead to a positive outcome, you may have something.

Being able to predict line moves has value, as it should lead to profitable betting outcomes.
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11-20-2018 , 11:09 AM
#27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xnbomb
I'm also curious about different perspectives on this.

I was screwing around last year and put together a college basketball total system. Within certain parameters(ie big enough difference between my total and vegas), it went 102-64-2 (61.44%). Too small of a sample for sure. How much does it change that the lines moved 99-58-11 in my direction?? That seems to be an indication that something went right, but it could (and most likely is) simply positive variance. It would take 7 years at this rate just to get a 1K sample. Huge waste of time to keep putting in the effort to track it or is there at least a possibility of being on to something?


That is cool as ****. And I am not being sarcastic. I am a recreational bettor that enjoys SB'ing for entertainment. I would love to hear more about how you did this. I can PM if you'd like

Also Lol for the intense poop flinging in this thread


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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11-20-2018 , 07:48 PM
#28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xnbomb
I'm also curious about different perspectives on this.

I was screwing around last year and put together a college basketball total system. Within certain parameters(ie big enough difference between my total and vegas), it went 102-64-2 (61.44%). Too small of a sample for sure. How much does it change that the lines moved 99-58-11 in my direction?? That seems to be an indication that something went right, but it could (and most likely is) simply positive variance. It would take 7 years at this rate just to get a 1K sample. Huge waste of time to keep putting in the effort to track it or is there at least a possibility of being on to something?
Assuming what youre saying is true, its actually very likely you have a pretty good edge. If you really beat the closing at a 98-58-11 clip, you should be crushing. You probably are on the good side of variance if youre hitting over 61%, but all things considered, you almost definitely have an edge, and a pretty good one at that. CBB totals are a much different animal than, say, NFL sides, and beating them isnt as hard (not that I can do either, but basic market rules apply).

If you aren't, you should post in the picks thread and how youre doing with impartial people keeping track. Your numbers sound a little too good to be true tbh
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11-21-2018 , 11:07 PM
#29
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Also, you should also take note of the odds adjust for the bets you are placing. Obviously win rate != edge for this reason. For example, if you were laying -115 on these bets your edge could be much less than if you were laying -105. This might be related to the market, such as quarter bets or team totals. It might also be systematic to the bet subset, such as playing exclusively +9 or higher NFL dogs, which typically are shaded 5-15 cents and do not portray a flat fav/dog situation.
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11-21-2018 , 11:17 PM
#30
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You can also look at other indicators which are related to the final outcome but provide another set of data points for reference. For example, if you are betting NFL totals how well does your model predict quarter/half totals? If it picks at a similar rate that would be a good sign. If not then that might imply the model might simply be running good, or demand additional research.
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11-24-2018 , 03:13 PM
#31
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Lots of buzzwords, nothing of substance. At all.^
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11-24-2018 , 07:23 PM
#32
PokerHero77
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Not everybody is supposed to understand this stuff
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11-25-2018 , 08:13 PM
#33
xnbomb
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
Assuming what youre saying is true, its actually very likely you have a pretty good edge. If you really beat the closing at a 98-58-11 clip, you should be crushing. You probably are on the good side of variance if youre hitting over 61%, but all things considered, you almost definitely have an edge, and a pretty good one at that. CBB totals are a much different animal than, say, NFL sides, and beating them isnt as hard (not that I can do either, but basic market rules apply).

If you aren't, you should post in the picks thread and how youre doing with impartial people keeping track. Your numbers sound a little too good to be true tbh

I haven't even started tracking yet (I started in about January last year). I think I'll start in December when there is more data on teams, and I'll try to start keeping track in a picks thread as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
Also, you should also take note of the odds adjust for the bets you are placing. Obviously win rate != edge for this reason. For example, if you were laying -115 on these bets your edge could be much less than if you were laying -105. This might be related to the market, such as quarter bets or team totals. It might also be systematic to the bet subset, such as playing exclusively +9 or higher NFL dogs, which typically are shaded 5-15 cents and do not portray a flat fav/dog situation.
nearly all of the bets were -110
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11-28-2018 , 11:32 PM
#34
RudyRuder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xnbomb
I'm also curious about different perspectives on this.

I was screwing around last year and put together a college basketball total system. Within certain parameters(ie big enough difference between my total and vegas), it went 102-64-2 (61.44%). Too small of a sample for sure. How much does it change that the lines moved 99-58-11 in my direction?? That seems to be an indication that something went right, but it could (and most likely is) simply positive variance. It would take 7 years at this rate just to get a 1K sample. Huge waste of time to keep putting in the effort to track it or is there at least a possibility of being on to something?
markets and rules of the sport change yearly

if everyone knew when his.her model would be successful or a failure, we would all be rich
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11-30-2018 , 02:35 PM
#35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xnbomb
I'm also curious about different perspectives on this.

I was screwing around last year and put together a college basketball total system. Within certain parameters(ie big enough difference between my total and vegas), it went 102-64-2 (61.44%). Too small of a sample for sure. How much does it change that the lines moved 99-58-11 in my direction?? That seems to be an indication that something went right, but it could (and most likely is) simply positive variance. It would take 7 years at this rate just to get a 1K sample. Huge waste of time to keep putting in the effort to track it or is there at least a possibility of being on to something?
this matters a lot. over your 168 game sample how much did you beat the closing line by?

I realize the calc isn't as easy as on a moneyline, but you could use the SBR 1/2 point to approximate when it wasn't just the vig that moved but the actual total
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