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Old 04-25-2018, 05:06 PM   #1
Stu Ungar
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What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

Not adding a sportsbook's vig, what would be fair odds for this year?

Justify, Mendelsohn, Audible, Good Magic, etc? Any horse can cop it and the bet is won.

Was offered 8/1, but I want 10/1. We might settle on 9/1.

Not that it matters, but for..say..a $200 - $500 wager.

Any thoughts of what fair odds should be, considering this year's crop of horses.

Are any of them that dominant that can win 3 big races in 6 weeks?
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Old 04-25-2018, 07:59 PM   #2
Jkpoker10
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stu Ungar View Post
Not adding a sportsbook's vig, what would be fair odds for this year?

Justify, Mendelsohn, Audible, Good Magic, etc? Any horse can cop it and the bet is won.

Was offered 8/1, but I want 10/1. We might settle on 9/1.

Not that it matters, but for..say..a $200 - $500 wager.

Any thoughts of what fair odds should be, considering this year's crop of horses.

Are any of them that dominant that can win 3 big races in 6 weeks?
I would say you want 10-1 to 15-1 to be fair bet. I don’t think there will be a triple crown winner this year. The top 5-7 horses are very talented and with a few new shooters for the Preakness and Belmont, feel it will be very hard for a TV winner bc a triple crown winner has to be really dominating and I haven’t seen anything showing that in the derby preps.

I could easily see a horse winning the Kentucky derby and then Preakness but winning the Preakness is very difficult due to the distance. I wanna say I saw vegas had +800 for tc winner. Not sure if that’s right but your bet seems at right spot minus the vig
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Old 04-26-2018, 01:10 PM   #3
Stu Ungar
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

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Originally Posted by Jkpoker10 View Post
I would say you want 10-1 to 15-1 to be fair bet. I don’t think there will be a triple crown winner this year. The top 5-7 horses are very talented and with a few new shooters for the Preakness and Belmont, feel it will be very hard for a TV winner bc a triple crown winner has to be really dominating and I haven’t seen anything showing that in the derby preps.

I could easily see a horse winning the Kentucky derby and then Preakness but winning the Preakness is very difficult due to the distance. I wanna say I saw vegas had +800 for tc winner. Not sure if that’s right but your bet seems at right spot minus the vig
Thanks for the reply..that is pretty much what I was thinking, odds-wise.

There is a horse that is skipping the Derby, to run in the Preakness that has a big shot..I'm a bit worried that one is the one that might beat me..Runaway Ghost.

I'd be happy with 10/1..would make for a good sweat..I don't think I would take anything less than that..
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Old 04-26-2018, 03:07 PM   #4
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

I’ll give u 11-1 there isn’t a TC winner .
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Old 04-27-2018, 01:53 PM   #5
Stu Ungar
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

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I’ll give u 11-1 there isn’t a TC winner .
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Old 04-28-2018, 05:28 PM   #6
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

You wanted 9-1 , I offered 11-1? Or are u just a fraud starting BS threads ?
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Old 04-28-2018, 10:04 PM   #7
Matty_poker1
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

Tbh I think that Justify and Magnum Moon are the only horses w a shot at it. That being said I would I wouldn't play it unless I was getting around 20-1. I will probably wind up fading them in the KD.
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Old 04-29-2018, 01:17 PM   #8
Post-Oak
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

Track conditions can also play a role. You cannot predict the weather for any of the 3 races.
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Old 04-29-2018, 02:56 PM   #9
prickly00
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

37 years times a 20 horse field times 14 field times 12, only about 124,000/1.
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Old 05-03-2018, 09:26 PM   #10
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

1 in 50 thousand or so would be my guess
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Old 05-03-2018, 09:56 PM   #11
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

Im giving benefit of doubt and will assume those giving crazy high odds like 50k or 124k to 1 are just joking around because you cannot calculate the odds that way.

One Horse WILL win the Kentucky Derby.

The bet is not so much will there be a triple crown winner BUT rather
will the winner of Kentucky Derby win 2 more crown races in a row. Then we see that the odds are MUCH lower than that.

from wiki
The three Triple Crown races had been run for decades before the series received its name; the Belmont Stakes was first run in 1867; the Preakness, in 1873[2]; and the Kentucky Derby, in 1875. The term was in use at least by 1923, although Daily Racing Form writer Charles Hatton is commonly credited with originating the term in 1930


There have been 12 winners in 87 years of the "Triple Crown"
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Old 05-14-2018, 09:26 PM   #12
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

+175
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Old 05-14-2018, 10:40 PM   #13
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Re: What Are the Proper Odds of Any Horse Winning the 2018 Triple Crown?

Since Justify's odds at post will be in the neighborhood of 0.20-0.40 for the Preakness, and 0.75-1.15 for the Belmont (if he wins Preakness of course), I'd put fair odds at +230.

Of course this does not factor in his chances of scratching, which is probably < 10%.
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