I agree. On paper, Twins +1.5 -200 looks solid. On the other hand, I created a whole system to bet the Rangers -2½ every game precisely because you never know when the Rangers are gonna go off and put up double digit runs. Then when you lose it really hurts laying -200.

Actually, I'm new to this forum. I haven't watched a sporting event let alone bet on one in over ten years. But I've been a little intrigued lately by some statistical data I've been playing with re baseball. So I'm trying to get up to speed by reading all of the threads in the FAQ. I haven't seen your "Texas Rangers 2 1/2 System" yet, but I'll look for it.

I also think this "well" thing is a great idea. It allows one to ask naive questions and actually get them answered. It's a good way to clear up some things, such as: What is MMA?? I've been racking my brain on that one, but nothing makes sense.

Here's a few more: you mentioned 5Dimes. Can Americans bet sports online legally? Is this an offshore book? I know I wouldn't put money into an offshore site for the horses--I just wouldn't take the chance. So, is your money safe? Do you feel comfortable? If there's nothing to worry about, how hard is it to put funds on--and take them off the site?

Ironically, I took the Twins -1.5 +1.30. When I saw the final line, I was kind of sad, because I would have gone the other way--and won in overtime.

That being said, was there a way to lock in a profit had I known how the line was going to move, or if I could have found the closing number somewhere else?

Thanks again, I appreciate your input.

Hi Crane,

In theory, the person down The Well is supposed to answer *any* question. But a reading of the forum FAQ is first required before approaching The Well. Finish reading the FAQ and then I would be happy to address all questions not covered there.

Today take the Rangers Team Total o3.5 at -120. Pinny and Carib have it. It's been a long time since the Rangers Team Total was this low. Buy low here. The Rangers line-up is always a decent favorite to score 4 or more runs in a game.

What's your opinion on Fantasy Sports and how does it effect you as a handicapper?

Great Read, Tom -- thanks for doing this. Relatively new to handicapping baseball. Using at worst dime lines and putting some (but definitely not as much as possible) effort into line shopping, I think there are 8 to 10 plays a day with an expected ROI of at least 3% (with almost all falling between 3-5% and most much closer to 3) using for simplicity just moneylines and team totals. I should also say that I don't think I'm nearly as accurate at quantifying how big or small an edge is for totals (or if there is an edge) - just much less confident in handicapping totals overall. Weekly, I see around 3 to 5 plays that I think have a noticeably larger edge (say an expected ROI closer to around 10%). Here is my question: with your experience, do you think I'm handicapping inaccurately or do you think this amount of (slightly) winning wagers are available on a daily basis?

I've been traveling the last few days (I am in Chicago. I am going to the Cubs game on Saturday!). So apologies to my lack of attention to my Well Thread.

I've never been a fan of Fantasy Sports. It's a lot of work and the stakes are small. The edges are large, but the growth of any long-term futures bet sucks.

I remember at the start of the 2007 football season, I bet a huge number of NCAA and NFL Regular Season Win totals. I got some great lines sometimes even on opposite sides of the same line (this created huge arbitrages and middles). By the time the season started, I realized I had nearly crippled my bankroll by tying up so much money for 16+ weeks. It really hurt my ability to bet that season. So I learned my lesson and ever since then, I have ignored long-term futures. Basically, I choose to sacrifice some large (10%+ edge wagers) over the course of many weeks to compound many 2%-3% wagers daily with that same money... Think compounded growth vs. linear growth.

Now, if your bankroll is gigantic such that the money would otherwise be sitting in a savings account, then by all means go for it. But for small and medium timers (most of us gamblers) then I think it's a bad proposition. The only upside is if you truly do this as recreation, then it is fun having a small equity stake on every single game (tying the money up also prevents the recreational gambler from making more -EV wagers)!

Anyway, back to your question... No. I don't do much with fantasy sports. Perhaps someday someone will come up with an idea for a single day fantasy team (sort of like a "sit-n-go" in poker) and make it for small/medium stakes. If that ever happens, then I think the market could really take off and that person could make a ton of money.

Sure, I certainly think it's possible. Head over to SBR Lines and click one of the baseball match-ups to view the odds over time. Lines move. There's plenty of room for mispricings in the range your described.

If I were you, here's how I would attack the market. Bet early. That's when you're most likely to find mispricings. Play at 5Dimes and bet their overnight 5c money lines. Since you aren't able quantify your edge too well, keep your betting relatively flat. Maybe restrict your units mostly to single and double unit plays. After you've bet, follow the lines all throughout the day until game time. Check to see if the lines move in your direction or against you. This is important. You don't have to beat the closing price on every play, but the market should move in line with a successful handicapper more often than not (RickJ is the sole exception to this rule. He often fails to beat close but still pwns).

I'd also recommend Matchbook. It's not very good for overnights, but a few hours before the game they usually have penny spreads. That cuts down on the vig even more and will give you even more of a fighting chance.

Good luck.

There are lots of single day fantasy sites that have sprouted up in the past year or two. Here's one: http://www.draftbug.com

Tom (and I include this part of the response also for other noobs) -- I think everything above is amazingly good advice.

I'm actually shocked how close I have come to handicapped lines right off the bat. Interestingly with the fantasy sports discussion above, I have won some national level contests so have some experience forecasting but not in this specific context. However, your validation is really encouraging because my 100 wagers is a tiny sample.

Two follow-ups to specific points. Last night liked and booked Tor -134. Thought true price should have been between -138 and -143 (even the low end being enough for a 1 unit play for me). Now dime line has moved to -154/+144. How do you recommend deciding to close out a position or not in such a situation?

Next I do use a unit to be 1/100th of my BR. I have varied between 1 and 2 units. Would you almost ever recommend more than 2% of BR for these relatively vanilla baseball plays (I very rarely seem to expect ROIs I would value over 5%)? Maybe up to 3% of BR if you can be confident in 5% ROI (or higher) play? Interested in your owns thoughts -- not Kelly reference. I guess part of my hesitation is I would be shocked if a market like this really got that mispriced so would be hard to have the aforementioned confidence.

Last point to clarify re line moving in your favor. Had Baltimore and Houston leans last night. Prices offered were around +140 and +112, respectively. North of +150 and +120 would get me interested in either. I thought a very good chance both would get to that range (and currently appear to be). Is the best approach for situations like these (where you like the side that you think the line will move against) to wait for your desirable price (which I'm doing) or is there a more profitable approach if you have correctly forecasted the situation?

There are three options here..

1) Full hedge
2) No hedge
3) Partial hedge

1) It depends how confident you are with your true line. Assuming you are confident with that price range, then according to your range, the other side is now +EV. You should smile and close out your original position. Congratulations, you're now in the best possible situation for a sports bettor--you are holding two +EV, perfectly negatively correlated wagers. Technically you should close out your position entirely and take a small position on the Rays (in line with your estimate of the tiny 1c edge). But that's not necessary.

2) On the other hand, if don't think the other side is a +EV hedge (or 0EV), then I would prefer to simply let the original wager stand. I'm general, I'm not a fan of -EV hedges (there is an old saying of "hedges never win"). You're paying a price for the reduced variance. There are times, though, when a -EV hedge is the correct play... (see #3)

3) If you're not sure if the hedge is +EV, 0EV, or -EV, you can partial hedge a small amount to reduce your position and lock in a profit on that amount. In my opinion, this is more a lesson in betting theory than is actually practical (the differences in growth are small in most "normal" circumstances). There are important, practical situations where a partial -EV hedge can result in a significantly higher expected growth. Those usually only occur when the original wager was an overbet or the original wager was an extreme longshot that is now likely to cash (two situations I rarely encounter).

There are a few approaches. We discussed flat batting. An occassional 3 unit play is fine with me. If you aren't sure, you can use a Half Kelly Wager size of your more conservative estimate of the true line. For example, for the Jays example you gave half Kelly of -134 when your most conservative estimate of the true line is -138 has you betting ~0.84% of your roll on the play. Round that up to 1% for a single unit. It's just a rule of thumb to keep it simple and handy. In general, the damage to your bankroll from overbetting with respect to Kelly exceeds the that downside of underbetting. So be conservative, but don't be afraid to bet more on your strongest plays.

FWIW, I estimate 5%+ edges on a daily basis for MLB Team Totals. Although that is a much smaller, less liquid market than MLs/RLs/Totals which in turn means larger edges.

I think your "wait and see" is the correct approach. As a general rule, it's dangerous to fade the marketplace. But it's also important to have conviction. Over time you'll develop that sense of conviction and when you feel a play is right, don't be afraid to buyback the market and back your opinion with money.

Great questions. I wish you luck and hope you succeed.

How many different bets have you said that about since you turned pro?

Where would losing Chicubs u4.5 to a walkoff grandslam rank on your list of team total bad beats?

What would you approximate the odds of a home team scoring 4+ runs in extra innings are?

rigged

Of my database of 28,058 MLB games, in 10 games the home team won by exactly 4 runs as a result of a walk-off grand slam in extra innings (this doesn't include games where the home team hits a WOGS but wins by less than 4).