Quote:
Originally Posted by JaredL
Do you bet straight off the model without knowing anything else? Does the model do anything with injuries?
In general, I'd say 85% of our betting is just what the model tells us + the other mathematical kinks we're aware of, and the other 15% is injuries/deviant HCA/expecting line movement/UCLA wanting to play faster, trends in NC vs. Conf play, etc.
Injuries are much more difficult to deal with in basketball than in baseball, where you can just sub one player out for another for the most part and plug and play. I would love to be able to do a +/- system or other system that looks at play how 2 or 5 players interact and try to isolate exactly what a player contributes in certain formats. Unfortunately, that's out of the scope of our resources.
Thus, what we end up doing is a lot of ballparking and common sense(read: fishtalk). We'll look through kenpom's advanced stats for what kind of player the guy is, (usage/off and def possession stats). I feel like we do a reasonable job, because these numbers definitely know more than the media/public, but its far from SABR or gambling perfect, and isn't something we'd wager on if we already have an edge.
Just from memory, Poofler and I would often ask each other how much a line is going to move the first game a player has been out. It's been hit or miss. Again, enough to bet if we're in the right direction and there's already an edge.
Poofler: If you're here, feel free to chime in on any of these CBB questions.(if you want to save our secrets for ur own well down the line, that's fine too) You are not allowed to answer questions about my hair or fat chicks though.