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Old 10-22-2009, 01:38 PM   #1
ProfessorBen
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The Well - ProfessorBen

A stranger is being shown around a village that he has just become part of. He is shown a well and his guide says "On any day except Wednesday, you can shout any question down that well, and you'll be told the answer" .

The stranger shouts down several questions, and all are answered. The stranger is impressed, and after thinking a minute he shouts down: "Why not on Wednesday?" and the voice from in the well shouts back "Because on Wednesday, it’s your day in the well".

GOGOGO

Edit: adding ur own well to the list of well's in the OP seems shifty.

====
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Old 10-22-2009, 01:40 PM   #2
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

How long have you been SB? What are your "credentials"?
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Old 10-22-2009, 01:50 PM   #3
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

How do you come up with inspiration for your hair?
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Old 10-22-2009, 01:53 PM   #4
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

Seriously how many posters here have beaten sports long term?

/swish
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:15 PM   #5
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

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Originally Posted by splashpot View Post
How long have you been SB? What are your "credentials"?
If you don't count the awesome Mansion bet, I've actually only been sports betting for 2 years. In that light, I'm not as qualified as most of the guys who have done Wells. My niche knowledge/modeling of CBB is probably the reason I'm on this platform(though Poofler should really be up here for that).
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:17 PM   #6
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

What is the "awesome Mansion bet"?
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:18 PM   #7
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

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How do you come up with inspiration for your hair?
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:19 PM   #8
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

Do you bet straight off the model without knowing anything else? Does the model do anything with injuries?
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:20 PM   #9
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

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Originally Posted by Rustjive View Post
Seriously how many posters here have beaten sports long term?

/swish
all of them man. don't ever let MT2R tell you he's only breakeven. SB is EZ game. wise chinaman once say EZ COME, EZ COME.
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:26 PM   #10
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

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Originally Posted by Peeig View Post
What is the "awesome Mansion bet"?
It is 2006. The Steelers beat the Seahawks in SBXL. The Steelers open @ Dolphins in next season's opener. MansionNetwork lets everyone free roll a $1100 to win $1000 bet on the Steelers -5 or something like that. Everyone with Neteller loads up. Some people put on skirts on(not me, I always knew to ride dirtay even when I was a n00b). ROFLisberger gets hurt. Charlie Batch is starter. Line moves to -2.5 or something. Game situation in 4th quarter looks like Steelers never cover -5, cause they are up 1 without the ball. Joey Porter pick 6 = ship ship ship.

That was just a summary. You can find lots of threads on this in the archives.
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:26 PM   #11
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

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Originally Posted by Peeig View Post
What is the "awesome Mansion bet"?
That was such an awesome game. Mansion.com had a promotion for a free $1000 bet on the Pittsburgh Steelers. It came down to a last second interception.
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:27 PM   #12
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

On a scale of 1-10, how sick will you feel placing your first CBB future this year?
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:35 PM   #13
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

what's your background that helped u develop the model? Does any of your own analysis from outside the model go into making your actual wagers?
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:38 PM   #14
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

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Do you bet straight off the model without knowing anything else? Does the model do anything with injuries?
In general, I'd say 85% of our betting is just what the model tells us + the other mathematical kinks we're aware of, and the other 15% is injuries/deviant HCA/expecting line movement/UCLA wanting to play faster, trends in NC vs. Conf play, etc.

Injuries are much more difficult to deal with in basketball than in baseball, where you can just sub one player out for another for the most part and plug and play. I would love to be able to do a +/- system or other system that looks at play how 2 or 5 players interact and try to isolate exactly what a player contributes in certain formats. Unfortunately, that's out of the scope of our resources.

Thus, what we end up doing is a lot of ballparking and common sense(read: fishtalk). We'll look through kenpom's advanced stats for what kind of player the guy is, (usage/off and def possession stats). I feel like we do a reasonable job, because these numbers definitely know more than the media/public, but its far from SABR or gambling perfect, and isn't something we'd wager on if we already have an edge.

Just from memory, Poofler and I would often ask each other how much a line is going to move the first game a player has been out. It's been hit or miss. Again, enough to bet if we're in the right direction and there's already an edge.

Poofler: If you're here, feel free to chime in on any of these CBB questions.(if you want to save our secrets for ur own well down the line, that's fine too) You are not allowed to answer questions about my hair or fat chicks though.
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:40 PM   #15
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

Quote:
Originally Posted by darthrob64 View Post
On a scale of 1-10, how sick will you feel placing your first CBB future this year?
11. our first one last year was Georgetown 45-1. Poofler had to beg me to give him some action cause we thought we had such a good price/line. Whatever i bet this season will remind of this epic fail.
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:41 PM   #16
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

what else are you betting other than cbb?
how many wagers do you place in an avg. season of cbb?
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:45 PM   #17
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

how tall is this model and what color hair does she have?

Edit:
or should I say he
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:46 PM   #18
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

Did you basically take May - August off to play poker?
If yes, why? Do you not bet baseball?
What % of your income comes from poker/sportsbetting?
Why not more of one or the other?
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:47 PM   #19
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

how is WNBA coming along?
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:48 PM   #20
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

oh yeah, sorry I left you guys last March to watch the Illini game with a bunch of alum friends and family. I'll be sure to get in more face time next March, especially if you degens take up the entire front row of the Palazzo Sportsgrill again.
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:53 PM   #21
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

Can you describe a little bit how you came up with and developed your model? I don't mean the specifics of it but more how you did it. Did you start with academic texts, crunching a bunch of numbers yourself to get relationships, going off something you read from somewhere else, or some cool thing I haven't heard of? Similarly, I'd be interested in anything you would be willing to share about how you tested and improved the model later as I'm stuck with my soccer model.
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:55 PM   #22
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

Quote:
Originally Posted by Your Mom View Post
what's your background that helped u develop the model? Does any of your own analysis from outside the model go into making your actual wagers?
Poofler is the genius behind the physical model - I am the lackey in that department. My background is really just reading up on basketball SABR and knowing gambling stuff(push %, etc.). Sometimes we manually have to adjust a model because a team is playing a scrub team or is in Non Conf affair. It really helps to have some basic advanced statistical knowledge so you know what a reasonable estimate for the shift is.

The other part of ur question is answered by the 85/15 thing in the last paragraph.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Your Mom View Post
what else are you betting other than cbb?
how many wagers do you place in an avg. season of cbb?
mlb/cbb/nfl futures, nfl player props, wong teasers, arbs, steam, crockpot lox.

I bet about 750 plays last season, most of Poofler's 700+ plays and then a few of my own he didn't get to, a few he didn't agree with, and some that were just steam(this number doesn't include arbs). We're expecting this number to increase as we were very tentative in the early season when we shouldn't have been(softest then) and also were pansies with totals because we didn't know how to model them without much in-season data.

Stopping here for now. Will do more later.

Last edited by ProfessorBen; 10-22-2009 at 03:02 PM.
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Old 10-22-2009, 02:59 PM   #23
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

Quote:
Originally Posted by itiswell View Post
how tall is this model and what color hair does she have?

Edit:
or should I say he
i can't believe you asked for a he(i was prepared to post hot chixxx)

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Old 10-22-2009, 03:09 PM   #24
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

why do I see you playing lower lhe @ bellagio when I know you could beat the higher game?
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Old 10-22-2009, 04:40 PM   #25
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Re: The Well - ProfessorBen

Quote:
Originally Posted by atrainpsu View Post
Did you basically take May - August off to play poker?
If yes, why? Do you not bet baseball?
What % of your income comes from poker/sportsbetting?
Why not more of one or the other?
I have always been a poker player first and foremost. During CBB, I spent most of my working time with SB though. This was not a good decision as I should have kept on my grind. So yeah, May-August was largely compensating for lost time.

The only baseball I bet is steam and crockpot lox. I don't model it myself.

Most of my income now is coming from poker. When my bankroll was at it's biggest, it was much closer to 50/50, possibly even slanted towards the SB. I'd like to get back to this because grindz = boringgg. It's been said alot but in general, SB is much better for bigger bankrolls, poker much better for smaller.
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