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Old 04-09-2020, 02:34 PM   #176
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Re: The Well - Like

expected growth.

youre right, congrats. You found an error on my blog. I could say that I would assume anyone giving plus odds on a coin flip wouldnt take a bet big enough to need to hedge out of but theoretically youre right, you should hedge there. Send me your venmo Ill send you back the money it cost you to read it.
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Old 04-09-2020, 04:38 PM   #177
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Re: The Well - Like

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expected growth.

youre right, congrats. You found an error on my blog. I could say that I would assume anyone giving plus odds on a coin flip wouldnt take a bet big enough to need to hedge out of but theoretically youre right, you should hedge there. Send me your venmo Ill send you back the money it cost you to read it.
I'm actually entertained because it's obvious you don't actually know what expected growth actually is but think you'll impress people if you use the term. For example, you also say:

Quote:
Let's talk Miki Sudo. She THINKS shes the female Joey Jaws Chestnut but her numbers have been fading recently. Shes won every year since 2014 but she topped out in 2017 with 41 dogs. In 2018 she won with 37 and then a big drop off last year to 31. Has she peaked? I'm betting she has. By doing the half scalp of -500/+600, my effective bet is risking .5u to win 4u, or +800. So I'm getting +800 instead of +600 just by doing the scalp. I sacrifice some volume (so you see where the EV takes a hit) but I make up for it by increasing my price (hence the bump to EG. Textbook example of a hedge helping EG but hurting EV).
Why is this hedge +EG? Increasing your effective odds with a partial arb is not automatically +EG as you imply. It's dependent on a bunch of other factors, none of which you actually discuss (or likely considered). It's certainly not a textbook example of EG/EV tradeoff.

Based on your blog, you seem to do a lot of really sub-optimal stuff, which you can get away with due to your PPH outs being complete idiots (finding these outs is 100% a skill so good job), but I'd imagine you'd want to make more money and have fewer leaks if you could, just as anyone would.
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Old 04-10-2020, 08:02 AM   #178
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Re: The Well - Like

We get it, hedgie. You're 'that guy'. Now, please go away.
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Old 04-10-2020, 09:42 AM   #179
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Re: The Well - Like

lol seriously.

I have no problem admitting to and correcting mistakes I make on there. Im sure theres a few. But Id rather slam a garage door on my head than have a dialogue with someone like you. So lets meet each others needs. You dont ever have to read my blog again and can think Im an idiot and I can go back to not knowing you exist.
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Old 04-10-2020, 11:54 AM   #180
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Re: The Well - Like

Try not having a paper thin skin. Heaven forbid someone actually read your blog that you repeatedly link to on this thread or actually make a post with any actual correct gambling info related to it. Those aren't really mistakes in the sense you're trying to present them as (calculation errors, like taking a middle without the ) but rather a fundamental misunderstanding of a topic.

I'll read your blog if I feel like it and given the lack of betting right now, I do need some entertainment.

And LOL at saying you can "go back to not knowing (I) exist" while responding to a post of mine <10 minutes later. Imagine being this salty after someone corrects you on your use of a basic term.
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Old 04-10-2020, 12:24 PM   #181
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Re: The Well - Like

I dont doubt there are mistakes and I have no problem admitting them, correcting them and having a dialogue on here. Literally what I did and what Im doing right now. But when someone starts said dialogue with "HAHAHAHA" and has an attitude like yours, its clear you dont care about having an actual conversation. So like I said, lets go back to not knowing each other exist.
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Old 04-10-2020, 12:27 PM   #182
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Re: The Well - Like

The issue isn't the thickness of Likes skin, wedgie. It's that you're being a smarmy bastard.

GL to you and have a great day!
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Old 04-10-2020, 12:47 PM   #183
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Re: The Well - Like

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I dont doubt there are mistakes and I have no problem admitting them, correcting them and having a dialogue on here. Literally what I did and what Im doing right now. But when someone starts said dialogue with "HAHAHAHA" and has an attitude like yours, its clear you dont care about having an actual conversation. So like I said, lets go back to not knowing each other exist.
Would you admit that you don't really understand the concept of expected growth? Because while you did eventually admit that a 0EV hedge is good for EG (well a half-assed version of it, since you said you would only want to hedge if the bet was large, which is false), you haven't acknowledged this part from the last post, which gets to the heart of things:

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Why is this hedge +EG? Increasing your effective odds with a partial arb is not automatically +EG as you imply. It's dependent on a bunch of other factors, none of which you actually discuss (or likely considered).
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Old 04-10-2020, 12:51 PM   #184
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Re: The Well - Like

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The issue isn't the thickness of Likes skin, wedgie. It's that you're being a smarmy bastard.

GL to you and have a great day!
This is tame and probably downright nice compared to what this forum used to be like, you know, back in the days when actual information was discussed by multiple competent sports bettors here.
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Old 04-10-2020, 01:16 PM   #185
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Re: The Well - Like

Ill admit to anything if it means I get to stop interacting with you
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Old 04-10-2020, 02:12 PM   #186
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Ill admit to anything if it means I get to stop interacting with you
Yet you go and make a point to interact on another thread. Whining about how awful am I to cover for the fact that you tried to repeatedly use a basic gambling/sports betting term you didn't understand to make yourself sound smarter to noobs. Hilarious.

Perhaps you should reread Ganchrow's posts on the subject:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...on-part-i.html

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...n-part-ii.html

Part 3 never materialized but if you can calculate EG, you can figure out whether a hedge is +EG for your bankroll or not or what size hedge optimizes EG. Someone not mathematically inclined could even do it via trial and error with SBR's Kelly calculator.

Note that none of this has anything to do with partial arbs increasing effective odds on a bet.
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Old 04-10-2020, 03:03 PM   #187
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Re: The Well - Like

Holy smoke, you two still at it!?

Sort of reminds me of the good ol' days when .. Half the forum was feuding with me.

Let it go bro's.
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Old 04-10-2020, 05:43 PM   #188
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Re: The Well - Like

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Yet you go and make a point to interact on another thread. Whining about how awful am I to cover for the fact that you tried to repeatedly use a basic gambling/sports betting term you didn't understand to make yourself sound smarter to noobs. Hilarious.

Perhaps you should reread Ganchrow's posts on the subject:

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...on-part-i.html

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...n-part-ii.html

Part 3 never materialized but if you can calculate EG, you can figure out whether a hedge is +EG for your bankroll or not or what size hedge optimizes EG. Someone not mathematically inclined could even do it via trial and error with SBR's Kelly calculator.

Note that none of this has anything to do with partial arbs increasing effective odds on a bet.
Thanks for the links? But man you are an angry dude. Even angrier than me.

People arent coming to my blog for a nuanced breakdown of math concepts and Ive never pretended to be an expert in the area. Pretty sure Ive actually explicitly said the opposite like at least twice as many times as Ive mentioned EV or EG. AND Ive admitted that in theory, youre right and my example was wrong. So I dont know what else you want? Its a fun, free blog for noobs that isnt selling anything or making money and again, you dont have to read it. Id really rather you didnt actually.
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Old 04-10-2020, 06:08 PM   #189
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Re: The Well - Like

FWIW, Like I enjoyed the blog post on VPs.
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Old 04-10-2020, 06:42 PM   #190
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Re: The Well - Like

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Thanks for the links? But man you are an angry dude. Even angrier than me.

People arent coming to my blog for a nuanced breakdown of math concepts and Ive never pretended to be an expert in the area. Pretty sure Ive actually explicitly said the opposite like at least twice as many times as Ive mentioned EV or EG. AND Ive admitted that in theory, youre right and my example was wrong. So I dont know what else you want? Its a fun, free blog for noobs that isnt selling anything or making money and again, you dont have to read it. Id really rather you didnt actually.
Nuance would be some esoteric component of EG like making a small hedge in game 6 of a playoff series because you expect to have profitable bets in game 7 if it happens. There's really not much nuance to the basics and if you can't understand the basics, you shouldn't be using the term. It's not just one mistake either. Literally everything you've said about EG on your blog is either outright wrong or has little to actually do with EG.

I've never used a PPH book. It's probably a leak to have not done so but I don't go around telling people things about PPH books because I don't actually know anything about them beyond what I've read in your posts on this thread.
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Old 04-10-2020, 08:51 PM   #191
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Re: The Well - Like

I've never heard of EV=EG. What does that even mean?
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Old 04-10-2020, 09:10 PM   #192
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Re: The Well - Like

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I've never heard of EV=EG. What does that even mean?
EV=EG if you fully hedge, regardless of the EV of either side, since you are always going to end up with the same amount regardless of the outcome.
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Old 04-11-2020, 02:50 AM   #193
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Re: The Well - Like

what is your angle?

trying to get famous from this or something

reddit amas and now a blog lol

some people just can't help themselves
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Old 04-12-2020, 04:28 PM   #194
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Re: The Well - Like

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what is your angle?

trying to get famous from this or something

reddit amas and now a blog lol

some people just can't help themselves
You mean like that guy lvr who infects every thread with cancer posts like this one and has literally never posted any content of value?
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Old 04-12-2020, 10:04 PM   #195
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EV=EG if you fully hedge, regardless of the EV of either side, since you are always going to end up with the same amount regardless of the outcome.
I guess you are saying 1+EV = EG. Because EV can never be > 1 (outside of leveraging), and EG < 1 would be a losing proposition.

I'll use poogs example of +105 on tails and +100 on heads which you cited.

To max EG I should bet 51.22% of bankroll on tails, and 48.78% on heads.

EV = 0.025, EG = 1.0247

You don't end up with the same regardless of outcome. You win if its tails, and you lose if its heads.

If the odds on the hedge = the odds on the primary bet, and the probability of each are the same (which was not the case here and basically never happens), you end up with the same regardless of outcome, and 1+EV = EG.
Quote:
With a 0EV side to fully arb, EG=EV
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Old 04-12-2020, 11:57 PM   #196
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I guess you are saying 1+EV = EG. Because EV can never be > 1 (outside of leveraging), and EG < 1 would be a losing proposition.

I'll use poogs example of +105 on tails and +100 on heads which you cited.

To max EG I should bet 51.22% of bankroll on tails, and 48.78% on heads.

EV = 0.025, EG = 1.0247

You don't end up with the same regardless of outcome. You win if its tails, and you lose if its heads.

If the odds on the hedge = the odds on the primary bet, and the probability of each are the same (which was not the case here and basically never happens), you end up with the same regardless of outcome, and 1+EV = EG.
You're confusing expected growth with expected bankroll (which is just EG + bankroll). I'm also not sure where you're getting that EV could never be greater than 1 without leverage. If you bet your entire bankroll on anything better than +100 (unless that's what you mean by leverage?) that's the case.

You are correct that with no constraints that is the optimal solution. However, in practice you're basically never going to be able to have unconstrained limits, particularly for bets like this, unless you have a miniscule bankroll. Let's go back to Poogs' example and say that the limit on the +105 bet is $100 and you have some non-micro bankroll. Let's also say the limit on the +100 bet is higher, say $250 but it doesn't really matter as long as you are able to fully arb. The EV of your +105 bet is $2.50 and with no hedge, the EG is of course less. If you arb by placing $102.50 on the +100 bet, the total EV of your position is $2.50, as is your EG since you add $2.50 to your bankroll no matter what. So in this case, and just about any real world case, if you can fully hedge a +EV bet with a 0EV bet, you should do so for the full amount so that EV=EG. And obviously, if you can't fully hedge (say the limit is also $100 for that +100 bet) you'll still want to hedge as much as possible.
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Old 04-14-2020, 05:42 AM   #197
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Re: The Well - Like

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You mean like that guy lvr who infects every thread with cancer posts like this one and has literally never posted any content of value?
How arrogant do you have to be to post something like this lol

Are you a walking fountain of knowledge on these forums now or something?

I define value as information that is not readily available on google and going by that definition you have never posted anything of value lol if anything you spread a **** load of misinformation

even after all these years you post your hindsight bias analysis after mma cards are FINISHED deeming what was value and what was not

having some retarded outlook that any long shot that was a close fight is somehow deemed "value" automatically lol

I can only imagine how many betters you screwed over with this retarded method lol

even if a fighter was knocked out within 5 seconds it can still be a value bet before it happened..

there is my "value" to these forums lolol
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Old 04-14-2020, 05:44 AM   #198
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I dont care what you think about literally anything.^

New post coming soon, today or tomorrow. Gonna be a ton of super in depth and interesting math stuff
just funny that you complained all these years about free information just to start a "blog" after you quit lol
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Old 04-17-2020, 12:21 PM   #199
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Re: The Well - Like

Hey so I got my Like username banned and a bunch of posts deleted. No explanation but I assume its for posting to my blog. Not gonna do that anymore - prob shouldnt have to begin with but I wanted to get it off the ground plus didnt think anyone would mind with there being literally no sports on at all right now. But rules are rules and we know how much forum mods like to flex their muscles. So bookmark it and/or just check back regularly. Ill have an update at least once a week. Thanks for checking it out though guys.

Was able to dig up my old username. Lots of weird PMs. I dont need a 'runner'...so many weirdos want to be runners.

lvr, glad to see youre checking out the blog. Hope it brightens your very clearly dark and awful days, even if just for a second. If we had a vote on here among regulars as to who was the number one regular poster everyone would like to see gone, what do you think the odds would be that it would be you? Genuinely curious.

Peace out bro's
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Old 04-17-2020, 01:53 PM   #200
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Re: The Well - Like

No warning or anything.... that is honestly kind of ridiculous.
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