Well I just got around to reading one of your blog posts and while I won't comment on the rest, I am still sitting here in awe that someone who does Reddit AMAs on the topic of professional sports betting would write the following:
Quote:
(An arb (or scalp) is when there is a price discrepancy big enough that it that allows you to guarantee profit no matter what. Literal free money (as long as you get paid). For example; say you can bet on a coin flip. One guy gives you even odds, another guy gives you +105. You bet 102 to win 102 at even odds on heads and 100 to win 105 at +105 on tails. You win 2 if its heads and 3 if its tails. Add a zero or two and do this a few times a day and you're in business. Riding naked is simply taking a position, aka not arbing or half-arbing).
The question of when to hedge/arb/scalp/middle (all basically the same thing) and when not to is quite interesting. In general, hedging is good for EG (expected growth) of your bankroll while riding naked is better for EV (expected value).
...
Once you get the hang of that down, you can start taking positions yourself and 'ride naked'. In the coin flip example above, you'd clearly want to ride naked.
HAHAHAHAHAHA. This is literally the most obvious situation in gambling to hedge for optimal EG as you don't even need to consider bankroll size to decide if the hedge is +EG. 0EV hedges to a +EV bet are always better than betting just the +EV side. With a 0EV side to fully arb, EG=EV. With no hedge, EG always < EV. Other than "if you bet your entire bankroll on a non-100% chance, you'll eventually go broke no matter the EV", this is about as basic as it gets with regard to Kelly and EG.