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Old 02-19-2020, 05:49 AM   #151
cockandbull
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Re: The Well - Like

Agreed, I wasn't asking you..
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Old 02-19-2020, 04:27 PM   #152
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Re: The Well - Like

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What effect would you taking over hockey props have on someone else's account? Let's say they can beat a few other markets but you betting 20-30 bets a day on prop have on that persons account?

What's makes you think you are best placed to take over someone's hockey props or other markets over some of the other posters on this forum?

Editing to add a question...

If I gave you a few of my accounts, what's to stop me engineering your model and killing your edge?
As for your first question, like ive said before every account is different. Most dont like lots of props and will shut you down within weeks if not days, but then again there are some accounts that ive had and beaten up on props for years. It really matters who the agent is and how big your action is compared to his avg customer, among other things.

Your other questions are odd. I wouldnt work with you anyway though so doesnt really matter
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Old 02-21-2020, 01:07 AM   #153
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Re: The Well - Like

I appreciate the answer to my first question.

With a little work anyone offering you an account for hockey props can do much better reaching out to other people on this forum.

I'm not sure why you wouldn't work with me if it worked both ways given what you've wrote in you here.
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Old 02-21-2020, 01:29 PM   #154
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Re: The Well - Like

thats fine. nothing personal, good luck if you do end up working with someone.
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Old 02-22-2020, 07:58 PM   #155
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Re: The Well - Like

For what it's worth, I'm not looking to work with someone. I have decent limits with prices that are massively wrong. Example being I have 1250~ on Devonte Graham to double double at 4/1
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Old 02-25-2020, 04:19 PM   #156
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Re: The Well - Like

Did you have an account with Uncle Mick?
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Old 02-25-2020, 05:53 PM   #157
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wow thats interesting. I dont think ive ever come across that skin but it does sound kind of familiar
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Old 02-28-2020, 04:31 PM   #158
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Re: The Well - Like

lost another nhl prop account. back to 0 again.


If anyone out there has an account that has hockey props PM me and we'll make money
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:41 PM   #159
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Did you have an account with Uncle Mick?
so I just discovered something interesting. If you use chrome and go into "manage passwords" it brings you to a page that lists everything youve ever had a password for. Its also a list of basically every PPH ive ever had! Really brings back memories. Anyone remember a skin called 80stone? Legit ATM back in the day. Or clickngamble? Playpl?? Topcatsports?! Oh the good ol days! Some of these were goldmines.

but yea turns out I did have an uncle mick skin. I knew it sounded familiar.
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:58 PM   #160
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Re: The Well - Like

i had to go through a big hassle to get my last payment from unclemick. And was still short changed. Usually I hate to see ridiculous busts like that, but this one felt like karma
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Old 02-28-2020, 08:00 PM   #161
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last thing; if anyone has any small gambling/sports betting podcasts and would like me to be on it I would love to do it. Even if not if anyone knows of any good ones please suggest em. I like gambling/trading podcasts and dont know of a bunch. The pinny podcast is great and the luckbox politics podcast is great too (thanks to whoever suggested that one on here.) Just figured id throw it out there if theres any small podcasters out there trying to get it going. And the NHL prop account thing!
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Old 02-29-2020, 12:35 AM   #162
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The pinny podcast is great and the luckbox politics podcast is great too (thanks to whoever suggested that one on here.)
The pleasure was all mine.
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Old 03-02-2020, 01:29 PM   #163
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so I just discovered something interesting. If you use chrome and go into "manage passwords" it brings you to a page that lists everything youve ever had a password for. Its also a list of basically every PPH ive ever had! Really brings back memories. Anyone remember a skin called 80stone? Legit ATM back in the day. Or clickngamble? Playpl?? Topcatsports?! Oh the good ol days! Some of these were goldmines.

but yea turns out I did have an uncle mick skin. I knew it sounded familiar.
I had BetTNT, BetTheChamp, dpsports.com (pph).
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Old 03-02-2020, 04:09 PM   #164
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Any other PPH bashers out there that remember certain skins fondly? Almost like remembering a past lover. For me it was this site called 80stone. Site wide min/max bets so I could bet up to 1k on props and they had the grossest prop lines ive ever seen. It was almost like it was just one guy making them up on his own. I specifically remember getting a QB under 2 TD passes at -130 when the market was -250 (and true number probably like -400). And that wasnt even that out of the ordinary. Just low hanging fruit all over the place. They also not only let me stay on there for way way too long, but I was able to get back on it more than twice after getting kicked out.

Another great one was vision or visionwager.

And then of course clickngamble. Everyone had a clickngamble skin at one point. They tried to be a sharp book I think but their lines were always off and slow to move. I think they had teasers at even money or even +105 at one point.

One of my all time favorites though was this skin called ezplay. Props and CP's all day every day.
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Old 03-03-2020, 10:24 PM   #165
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Re: The Well - Like

ezplay ruled. bookiemarket used to have a positive off the top craps game. that was a nice little loss rebate.
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Old 03-04-2020, 12:33 PM   #166
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wow ive never even thought about looking for exploits in the casino games. lol are they really giving away money there too?
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Old 03-04-2020, 01:10 PM   #167
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Back in the Neteller days there was a bug in the Ace Club Casino software (party poker operated skin). They allowed surrender on blackjack. If you double clicked it quite fast it would surrender twice getting $75 back on $100 bet. Seemed to be like a 4% edge. Lasted for about a month.
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Old 03-05-2020, 03:37 AM   #168
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Re: The Well - Like

i've heard a lot of stories about how in the early days of online slots the rngs were not very rngy and you could reliably play certain games profitably if you knew where the stopping point was

of course it took a real degen to take the initial -ev move of playing lots of online slots looking for bad software but once and exploit was found they'd create dozens of accounts, max deposit and max play until that stopping point and rinse and repeat until the sites figured it out
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Old 03-28-2020, 07:06 PM   #169
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Re: The Well - Like

New post!

https://sportsbettingwithpoogs.blogspot.com/
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Old 04-05-2020, 12:44 PM   #170
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New post: stock market bets results and more

https://sportsbettingwithpoogs.blogs...-and-more.html
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Old 04-06-2020, 09:22 AM   #171
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Well I just got around to reading one of your blog posts and while I won't comment on the rest, I am still sitting here in awe that someone who does Reddit AMAs on the topic of professional sports betting would write the following:

Quote:
(An arb (or scalp) is when there is a price discrepancy big enough that it that allows you to guarantee profit no matter what. Literal free money (as long as you get paid). For example; say you can bet on a coin flip. One guy gives you even odds, another guy gives you +105. You bet 102 to win 102 at even odds on heads and 100 to win 105 at +105 on tails. You win 2 if its heads and 3 if its tails. Add a zero or two and do this a few times a day and you're in business. Riding naked is simply taking a position, aka not arbing or half-arbing).

The question of when to hedge/arb/scalp/middle (all basically the same thing) and when not to is quite interesting. In general, hedging is good for EG (expected growth) of your bankroll while riding naked is better for EV (expected value).

...

Once you get the hang of that down, you can start taking positions yourself and 'ride naked'. In the coin flip example above, you'd clearly want to ride naked.
HAHAHAHAHAHA. This is literally the most obvious situation in gambling to hedge for optimal EG as you don't even need to consider bankroll size to decide if the hedge is +EG. 0EV hedges to a +EV bet are always better than betting just the +EV side. With a 0EV side to fully arb, EG=EV. With no hedge, EG always < EV. Other than "if you bet your entire bankroll on a non-100% chance, you'll eventually go broke no matter the EV", this is about as basic as it gets with regard to Kelly and EG.
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Old 04-06-2020, 10:35 AM   #172
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Re: The Well - Like

Yea the kind of guy whod make a post like that is exactly the kind of guy whod hedge out of getting plus odds on a literal coin flip.
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Old 04-06-2020, 11:14 AM   #173
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Yea the kind of guy whod make a post like that is exactly the kind of guy whod hedge out of getting plus odds on a literal coin flip.
Yes, I'm the guy who would hedge + odds on a coinflip given a 0EV hedge because I want to maximize EG. You're the guy who won't hedge that but will hedge a -6 on an NFL game ("a price so juicy, you'll want to max it out" LOL) when the market is 7.5 with a bet at market value, -EV and probably -EG too, unless your bankroll is tiny or your limits are huge (unlikely given this thread), because feels.
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Old 04-06-2020, 12:09 PM   #174
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Re: The Well - Like

cool
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:24 PM   #175
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Genuinely curious: what do you think EG is?
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