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Originally Posted by ProfessorBen
What other baseball bets(player props/derivatives) do you make besides futures/games?
it's not really worth my time to bet player props for games, but i do make a yearly ritual of picking off the worst season-long player props. most of these come from bodog; it's too bad they have a $100 limit, but i probably win 85% of them that i bet. the biggest risk is that the player fails to play enough games.
i bet 5 inning lines a lot, if those count.
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What percentage of your bets are openers? Reactions to lineups coming out?
i have no idea on the percentages. if i see a terrible opening line, i bet it. if i'm watching the cardinals game (or someone i know is watching) and albert pujols is carried off the field, i bet against st. louis tomorrow. these are probably standard approaches for smart people.
i usually don't get lineup info fast enough to bet before the market reacts, but i know people who can. it pays to have these connections.
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What other markets do you bet on besides MLB/NFL?
for each sport, i'm willing to look at the divisional odds and season wins lines, and bet when i see an inconsistency. this worked well in the NFL, when i took the titans at 16-1 to win the south. it's not going so hot in the NBA, where all my teams except the hawks are basically toast already.
i'll bet a scalpable line in any sport, but since i don't look at odds screens for sports other than MLB/NFL, it doesn't come up often. when a big event like the olympics comes along, i'll usually look around and pick off some bad lines.
when i have a freeplay bonus, i'll toss it on a parlay of good lines for whatever sport is in season. that seems like a good approach.
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How much does baseball make up your entire profits/amount wagered? What do you do with your bankroll in the baseball off-season?
it's the vast majority. i broke even last football season thanks to the pats SB collapse and west virginia losing to pitt.
back in the neteller era, each winter i would withdraw whatever i wasn't betting on football and collect interest on it. now this is so expensive and arduous that i'm just leaving a lot of it online, knowing i'll need it next year anyway.
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What is your favorite restaurant on the Strip?
i don't eat on the strip as often as i should. this is the problem with surrounding myself with poor friends to make me look richer by comparison.
so, i've never been to robuchon, alex, picasso, etc., although i definitely want to hit all of them. my favorite restaurants in the LV area are craftsteak, n9ne, rosemary's, and todd's unique dining.
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When did everyone on 2p2 start making you out to be the baseball guru? What's the backstory?
they're overreacting to a hot run i had betting games in early 2007. that's my guess, anyway.
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How would you characterize your relationship with thremp?
hard to say. if you asked him, he'd probably call me his lackey. i've only seen him twice in my life; putting 1000 miles between you and him is a good way to ensure that.
it certainly seems like he goes out of his way to be like his online persona, but that just makes him more entertaining.
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What is single trait that has made you most successful as a sports bettor?
probably that i have the right amount of confidence in my abilities. since i was raised by parents who didn't believe in me, i never went out into the world expecting everything to fall into my lap. however, i've been at this long enough to know a good bet from a bad one. i'd estimate few bettors out there can place the optimal number of bets. i'm not at the optimal level, but i'm close.
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How long do you plan on living in vegas for? What would you consider to be the biggest pros/cons for living there during your 20s?
i moved here four months ago. it's an okay place, but it seems to be really difficult to meet new people, unless they're women who want to take your money or 2+2ers. still, i do like that it has the amenities of a big city without soul-crushing levels of traffic or road construction like chicago.
also, it seems like the term 'professional gambler' has a more derisive connotation here, since every sports bettor thinks he's a pro. just a heads-up.