how many sports do you routinely bet?

Firstly thanks for doing the well.

1) If a 5% ROI in sports betting is supposed to be good, and there is a lot of variance in sports betting, how are u able to put in the necessary volume in order to outride the variance associated with sports betting? i.e. If you bet 3000 different events in a year, that is surely not a big enough sample size to outride the variance?

2) How do the live sportsbooks in casinos such as wynn/aria compare to the sports books that are most liquid online such as pinnacle/betfair?

3) How hard is it to make a living by just arbing/looking for arbs exclusively?
4) Opinion on live betting? can it be beat?
5) you laughed at the idea of sweating games in an earlier post... could u elaborate on that and say why that's a silly idea/so funny?
6) what is your opinion on predicting line movements? How are line movements predicted?

1) Being successfully angleshot for cab-fare on way to Rhino - impressively insightful move, or total weaksauce?

2) Losing CCR at Robuchon after you left for the airport -- what odds do you give it was an unbiased outcome: 1, 10, or 100%?

3) horse racing game at MGM/Camel racing at Luxor - best game in Vegas or best game in the history of the Multiverse?

4) How much are you now willing to blindly wager on random televised sumo matches? More than $20? 100? 942?

5) How much would you estimate you are up/down on h1 CBB CPs in LV?

6) Person who is most different IRL from their online persona among SBs? Most similar?

7) Assume you win a large PowerBall. Do you still gamble/wager?

8) Biggest weekly win/loss or similar time-frame if not 7 days?

9) More fun at craps - pressing winners, hitting hardways, or crushing Don'ts? Or other?

10) Who in SB would be hardest to read at the poker table?

11) Rate this rap video on a scale of 1-10:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6WJFjXtHcy4
Supposedly the artist signed for $1m with Sony after uploading. Does that affect your answer at all? FMK?

1. How old are you now?

2. How old were you when you realized you could/would make a living off of sb?

3. What did you study in college and do you think it helped you transition into sb?

drK, Bartbox, Bandit,

Fk ________-Marry ______-Kill________,


gogogogogo

How many hours a week do you put in on average?

Rough % of in-play-betting/ before the game

All the major US sports, and a little soccer, tennis, etc.

5% ROI is unrealistic on any decent volume - I'd say more like 2-3%. And they don't call it gambling for nothing.

All the live books suck in my experience.

It's a lot of work to get a decent-paying dead end career with no benefits.

I'm sure it can but I've never tried.

Big waste of time. Plus sometimes I'll get excited if it's the Packers or another team I really like and it takes A LOT of willpower not to place live bets. Eventually I set up my apartment so that my computer and TV used the same outlet, so anytime I wanted to watch a game I had to shutdown and unplug my computer first. That helped at first but then all these books started coming out with mobile sites and I can't turn off my phone cause I might have to call Spiro, so now I'm back to where I started donking the Packers live every game.

In my experience anyone who says they can predict line movements is delusional.

Sharp as fk.

0%

Earth is only some 6,000 years old so I think they're the same thing?

I'll gladly wager five figures on randomized 0EV events for lolz. One degen friend of mine in college always wanted to flip quarters when he was bored - so we had an ongoing agreement for $100 coin flips whenever he wanted to. His parents came to town one weekend and we hung out a bit - I figured nobody is degen enough to flip for $100s in front of their parents right? Wrong. He tried to do it on the down low, but I ended up winning like 8 in a row so he was getting really upset and his parents asked what was wrong. He said "Nothing" and went to the bathroom to throw up I think. If actual handicapping gets involved then I'm always nervous I'm getting angleshot - I won't even play rock/paper/scissors any more without randomizing my throws.

No idea. Probably about even.

Most different: you or kaboshed, Most similar: maga or B00T.

Maybe some degen craps still, but nothing +EV no.

My biggest teaser haul was just over $200k one week earlier this year - Spiro was so damn mad. I don't check how any of my other bets do, but I'm guessing that was it.

Fading B00T/Arby on the Don't Pass.

maga for sure

Beat: 10, lyrics: 1... so 5.5? When I retire from sports betting I want to become a rap music producer. I just bought some Dre Beats and DJ Premier's discography, now all I need is a turntable and some skanky hos.

23

19-20 I started making decent money.

Econ/Math - college is a huge scam. I almost got expelled for downloading porn using university internet - whatever's the RIAA-equivalent of the porn industry sent me a letter for piracy, had to pay a big fine, etc.

Fk: drK, Marry: Bandit, Kill: Bartbox

About 70 when I'm in grind-mode. I'm travelling now so ~25 atm.

1%/99%... I should probably work on that

Is shopping hard for lines good enough to beat sports betting?

Whenever i do my calculations, i always see the vig to be pretty high... do u agree that sports betting has less to do about sports and more to do about math? Do u wait for a certain line to pop up or do u just take it if u think its decent enough?

do u do things like o/u or player props/team props? what are the advantages of betting halfs/quarters vs full game and what do u take into consideration for betting these?

thanks a lot

What was your lead-in time from being a sports-betting fish, to realising you were a fish and deciding to take it seriously, to starting to make decent income?

1) annual income from sb broken down per year since you started to gamble?
2) beer or lager?
3) rate in order of importance to you: teasers, middles, polish middles, arbs, line shopping, statistical modelling, luckboxing, money management.
4) status of your ego post start of well?

Just wanted to say that I'm really enjoying this well and actually even feel I'm getting something out of it too. Thanks for doing this.

eff ewe!!!!!!!

Starting bankroll? You commented that hottest sizzle was 200k, what was darkest time?

Yes.

There are many ways to skin a cat.. but for me, yes.

If I think a line is +EV I'll pretty much always take it right away, otherwise that freak rsigley will probably steal it.

I used to look for arbs in all the props out there. Now I've outsourced all my prop modeling to TomG and B00T.

Biggest advantage is it means more opportunities for bookmakers to screw up. I look at them as simply derivatives of the full game, and model them as such. Somehow my model failed miserably for football, though it seems to be working well for basketball.

I spent a few months tailing different posters on TheRX because ZOMG ACEACE IS 10-1 THIS WEEK before I realized a lot of these supposedly winning touts would pick opposite sides of the same game, and from there it was just a small step in logic (but apparently a lot of noobs can't make it) to see that I had no reason to believe they were any better than flipping a coin. Then maybe another year of figuring things out and discovering different angles until I was making solid money.

I just remembered another terrible idea I wasted a bunch of time on back in the day.. I had just started betting baseball and was thinking of ways to value runlines. I hypothesized that lower totals would probably mean a higher chance of a 1 run margin of victory, and sure enough Pinny's prices confirmed that. But then I started plotting Pinny's implied 1-run probabilities for different games and noticed that there wasn't an exact linear relationship with the total. And there sure as hell should be, right!? I kept plotting Pinny's implied probabilities for a few weeks, then made a linear best-fit line in Excel, and was all ready to start bombing away on runlines - but luckily I stopped in time to think that maybe "there sure as hell should be, right!?" wasn't exactly true. And that was the end of that model

Everything I've made came from that $5 Absolute freeroll I mentioned. Poker and casino bonuses got me to maybe $5k, and then basically just sports since then. Things were much easier five years ago with Neteller, softer books, etc. I've had a few -100k days, don't know weekly or monthly low score sorry.

I'm too scared to go, need rsigley to hold my hand

Oops missed GarbageMan...

* deleted * - don't want IRS on my ass. I am the 1%.

School held me back in 2008-2009, but what can you do.

dessert wine

- luckboxing
- line shopping (including arbs and polish middles, I don't discriminate)
- statistical modeling
- teasers
- money management

No comprendo. I'm happy Microbob is enjoying the well and let's me call Greensmoke a sad excuse for a dung beetle.

Who or what resource helped you most while you were learning the game?

What did you learn from them and if you could give yourself some advice to cut your learning curve what would it be?

How many five year olds?
Bat or knife?
Blonde or brunette?
Anorexic or bbw?
Why you no like the cougars?
How was your overall Montreal experience 1-10?
5 years ago, if you had the sports betting knowledge you possess today, how much more money would you have made? As a multiplier of what you've actually made lifetime
Did you ever fix your memory leak?

does sb ever make you not calm?

How much volume is decent volume ?
In units .. where 1 unit = 1% of roll ..

Obviously units aren't important here, straight cash is.

2+2, SBR, Fezzik's old forum. The signal/noise ratio is pathetic, but the best info online is much better than anything in Yao or Wong's books IMO.

Dunno, there's no real secret. Just always be reading and thinking critically IMO. Oh, I guess always do your own work. So many noobs always looking for a handout, even though long-term they'd be way better off actually figuring **** out themselves. Exhibit A: Noob Teaser thread.

The last time I remember tilting was on Pats ML vs the Giants in the 08 Super Bowl. One time Thremp threw a beer bottle in the general direction of TomG in my apartment and stained one of the walls - that made me slightly uncalm so I guess that counts indirectly too.

There's obviously not a set cut-off, more just a gradual change in strategy as your bankroll gets bigger. When your bankroll is say $5,000 you can focus solely on the juiciest lines and should easily be rocking 5+% ROI. When your bankroll is $500k on the other hand, you'll need to start betting smaller edges (since there's no way you can get all-in on the juicy $500 props).

sorry for potentially dumb q's, I'm new.

you said line shopping is more important to you than statistical modeling. don't your models enable you to identify the good lines?

any words of wisdom for someone with no previous SB experience who plans on trying to model MLB stuff using excel and regression software? my plan for now is to download stats from a site, put them into excel, figure out what's important and go from there.

what should I do with my life?

USC or Illini women's vball in final 4?

well, i'm pretty much in love. made my wife watch it and she said, 'ewww, you like her don't you'?

haha, yep. there were some throwaway lyrics, but there were also some legit ones too.

odds she wrote it:

yes: +160
no: -180

kind of an indictment of TomG, no? i mean, i've seen thremp, he just a lil guy.

tomg, you let thremp throw a bottle in your 'general direction'? why?

excellent thread so far, sorry for my only question so far being for tomg...