The Well:

A stranger is being shown around a village that he has just become part of. He is shown a well and his guide says "On any day except Wednesday, you can shout any question down that well, and you'll be told the answer" .

The stranger shouts down several questions, and all are answered. The stranger is impressed, and after thinking a minute he shouts down: "Why not on Wednesday?" and the voice from in the well shouts back "Because on Wednesday, it’s your day in the well".

Go go go!

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• Previous turns in The Well in Sports Betting:
• Performify - 02/02/07
• B00T - 02/07/07
• Thremp - 02/14/07
• NajdorfDefense - 02/21/07
• King Yao - 05/23/07
• YouTalkFunny - 05/30/07
• shipitkthx - 10/30/08
• crockpot - 12/12/08
• TomG - 07/14/09
• ProfessorBen -10/22/09
• rsigley - 7/6/10

why r u doing a well ?

If you could some up the single most important attribute of a winning sports better, what would it be in your opinion?

Favorite sport to bet/watch?

Thanks!

calm did you leave Montreal yet? If not let me know; we gotta spark a fattie before you leave

Hmm, lots of reasons. I don't think I've ever gotten a shout-out on Thremp's blog, so I'm hoping something blog-worthy develops here. 2+2 has been a great resource for many years, so I'd like to give back to the community a little bit. Also I've been feeling like aids the last few days and need a distraction from the $6 brothel down the street. Unless you mean "who the freak are you, thinking you deserve well?" - then gfy.

Willingness to learn.

MLB

Women's tennis

Nope I'm gone Might have to go back soon to lump some meelies though - I'll let you know.

Who are you and what are you betting on? What kind of "research" do you do before betting? How do you combine real life with sports betting, because I assume that you would have to watch a ton of sports in order to be able to predict most likely outcomes etc?

Did you always want to bet sports?

Is it your profession?

Also who is your favorite poster?

According to my resume "I pursue relative-value investments and arbitrage opportunities in a variety of fixed odds sports betting markets." AKA line shopping.

Back in high school I taught myself QBasic, manually transcribed all of USA Today's NFL lines, and tried to backfit some sort of Pythagorean win % model. I spent countless hours tweaking the variables (weighting more recent weeks arbitrarily higher, kind of like MyTurn's million dollar NCAAF model) to get a model showing a 57% historical win rate, soon afterward realizing that this was a complete waste of time. I also wrote a big high school paper on point-shaving in NCAABB. So yeah I was always interested in sports betting, but never really foresaw pursuing it professionally. After that I built up a small roll from poker and casino bonuses during my last year of high school (I like to brag that all my Dodge Rams came from a single $5 freeroll on Absolute way back in the day), and gradually improved at sports betting and shifted to that full time.

Yes

popbottle

Well is nifty. Personal attacks not so much. Thanks for your understanding.

Nice start though Clam. Interesting tale of your beginnings especially.

what are some things you used to do/ideas you had that you look back on and laugh at?

where the **** are you these days; from the $6.00 comment you must be in Asia, central america or something? Just don't sell your butt please, worst case scenario comeback to Montreal and work at telemarketing or something.

Yeah, let me know if you ever comeback; found a cougar dive in old Laval. I swear you walk in there it's like the bar scene in Fear & Loathing except you are not hallucinating.

jesus christ, calm down uncle bob. this thread is going to go fine.

You and RSigley are locked in separate rooms of a Nevada compound from April to October and are given an equal amount of Pinny, CRIS, and Greek monies to bet MLB with. Are you the favorite to make more?

Also, same question but replace you and RSigley with Poogs and Greensmoke85.

nice.

also, someone else should add in all the standard opening questions. i'm about to fall victim to ambien.

These are off the top of my head.......I'll have more later

1) Who is the most important 2p2 or RD member in your development as a sports bettor? and why?
2) What is the most important book/paper/blog in your development as a sports bettor? and why?
3) Why did you and Stat roll me for cab fare?
4) Does anyone run worse than you at cc roulette?
5) If I get laid off of my job again, can I intern for you?
6) Have you changed your official position on cougars? and if so, did me and my friends have anything to do with this decision?
7) Any new wine touts for me?
8) What tilts you?
9) Is it true that God likes you better than Tim Tebow?
10) Am I ****ting this thread up enough?

How does it feel to be so much younger than most of your peers?

JPEG/scrambled porn. Sweating games. Trusting Pinny 100% - when I started out I was betting -110 when Pinny had -122/+105 on ncaabb1h totals. Pretty early on I remember PaulB saying his yearly goal was $50k, and I thought that would never be possible.

Lol yeah Central America.

Thursdayzzz IMO

Do I know the address of his compound? My only hope would be to keep shipping him Tito's and hookers.

I guess Poogs, he'd probably be able to beg Thremp for futures crumbs or something.

It feels good to be "ahead of the curve" I guess. I don't really notice or think about it often - especially online since it's just names instead of faces. I felt bad I couldn't reminisce about Rush's glory days with kabo though

you should be exempt from ccr on your birthday imo.

how do you feel gambling has changed your relationship with your family?

how much money do you currently have on balance in sports books right now?

what are the benefits and drawbacks of betting as part of a team vs. solo?

what are your sports betting goals for 2012?

do you bet rickj plays? why or why not?

What sort of information do you put into your models?

Aside from chasing steam and scalping, what's the LEAST that someone can do to win at baseball? Is being a smart person with the ability to see value within a game enough? Or is a model a must-have?

Best websites for data?

How does rsigley have a pinnacle account?

If you could go back 5 years, what advice would you give yourself with regards to gambling?

With regards to life?

The combo of gambling and travelling to many notorious drug-trafficking third world countries has caused a few problems.

90% of my roll is in sportsbooks... about half at A+ books and half at D-. ETA: "roll" = net worth; any winning gambler who keeps a separate "gambling roll" and "life roll" is a fish.

Team benefits: love sac, hot tub and HoN buddies; division of labor / more flexible schedule; constantly discussing/developing new ideas
Cons: harder accounting; need to agree on risk tolerance and work level; more mouths to feed (despite what a lot of noobs say, sports betting doesn't scale indefinitely); can't work naked

I'm shooting for Clam Milly from April 1, 2011 to March 31, 2012. After that, no specific goal yet but I want to scale back my hours and keep making money.

No. He's old.

Depends on the sport/market obviously. The more data the better.

How do you know you're truly "seeing value" in a game, and not just missing something the market knows?

I like retrosheet for baseball. MLB.com, NFL.com, etc. if you know how to scrape websites. Not sure otherwise.

He likes to brag that he has an Arab friend, so I'm guessing that guy knows an opium druglord or oil billionaire who has an agent.

Go to college outside the U.S. Get a desktop and three monitors.

Lol Catholic Center, join a frat. SS and GOMAD.

what about my posting makes you tilt?

favorite strip club in vegas?

^^^

keep roll sufficient enough to bet sports on scale you feel okay with based on risk tolerance, invest rest in other ventures to diversify, become classified as a fish?

I must subconsciously have you on ignore because I can't think of any of your recent posts, but I started campaigning for your exile when your posts were both blatantly wrong and condescending. More just "wow that guy is a sad excuse for a dung beetle" than tilting.

http://www.lasvegasweekly.com/places/larrys-villa/

Obviously there are practical reasons for not keeping your whole roll in sportsbooks if you're never getting all in, but I mean more in theory, i.e. if I offer you +1000 on a coin flip how much will you beg, borrow and steal to bet? The number you use for your bankroll in that situation should be the same as you use for all your bets. Confusion here leads to people saying they're betting "300% kelly on teasers", etc.