Quote:
Originally Posted by atrainpsu
If a book is offering -50000/+3400 for a livebet, they are never getting action on the -50000, so basically they are offering one side.
In most cases where I’ve seen lines like this, I have the underdog projected to win at < 1%. My guess is most books don’t want to offer anything above like 50:1 on a livebet. So I don’t think there is a much information gained from looking at these lines.
Pretty much this is what I’m thinking.
I can guarantee you I will cherry pick all -50000 +3200 and offer anyone +4000 blindly all day long.
I agree that if it’s -50000 +3200... it’s more like 110/1
If you truly feel it’s +3500 is +EV then why not offer -4500 as where people are likely to bet it. Anyone betting -4500 is betting a horrible line and will lose.
-50000 +3200... the vig free is around 110/1 (+11000) which I still feel is low in most these situations.