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Vig Free / In-Game Wager Question

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07-09-2019 , 08:38 PM

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

Hey all, thanks for all responses.

Let’s assume on Bet365, FanDuel or any site that offers live in-game wagering

Tennis Match -

Player A -50000
Player B +3300

Vig Free shows that +3400ish is Vig Free number, is this correct?

It seems hard to believe that is right or if the vig free calculator works on big money line spreads.

If true, then why wouldn’t Player A be -4400 to where anyone who is betting that when the real number is -3400 is getting destroyed.

I feel when it’s -50000 and +3300 the real number is probably 200/1
But the books simply won’t offer those odds on a live match

Thanka

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07-09-2019 , 11:20 PM

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Yes +3400 is correct under the classical assumption that the no-vig line is such that the vig is evenly split between both sides. It should be noted that despite the short odds on player A, the wager in question has a theoretical hold of just 2.67%. If you don't believe me (and you shouldn't just take my word for it) it's a great exercise to work through the math.

The reason it seems so screwed up for most people (myself included) is due to the confusing nature of American Odds for huge favs/dogs (cents are not linear).

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07-09-2019 , 11:42 PM

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

under the classical assumption that the no-vig line is such that the vig is evenly split between both sides.

Is that assumption false?

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07-10-2019 , 12:12 AM

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

There is no way shape or form you can tell me +4200 is +EV

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07-10-2019 , 12:15 AM

ProfessorEd

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Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

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07-10-2019 , 12:23 AM

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

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07-10-2019 , 12:24 AM

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

You’re assuming the +4000 is accurate

There is no way you can tell me if I offered you +4200 that it’s +EV for you. If you know anything about tennis looking at that live match it’s WAYYYY higher than 42/1 to come back

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07-10-2019 , 12:26 AM

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

For example;

Bovada has;
Fighter A -10000
Fighter B +1600

You’re assuming vig free is +1700 (it’s not)

Pinnacle has same fight -7000 +2352

So... Bovada is just raping you on the low odds. Same for bet365

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07-10-2019 , 12:44 AM

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

Yeah;

It’s capped out -100k / +4000 doesn’t matter if guy is up 6-0 and 5-0 serving

So no way to figure out true vig free on these huge spreads

Basically the highest odds they’ll offer is +4000 for in game so they’re not exposed. They won’t offer 300/1 on anything in game

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07-10-2019 , 04:32 AM

#10

PaiDaMorte

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 716

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorEd

vig free and the probability of something happening isnt the same thing.

What a classic

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07-10-2019 , 10:41 AM

#11

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Quote:

Originally Posted by heehaww

Is that assumption false?

Friend of the forum, andr3w321's website, alerted me to this alternative way of calculating no-vig lines. That approach results in more aesthetically pleasing no-vig lines for big dogs/favorites.

In practice, risk management causes the bookmaker to be more concerned about the Player B side at +3300 since that side can really hurt them and it's also the side that bettors prefer to bet so I'd guess that books tend to charge a premium to people wanting to bet that side which aligns more with the probit scale approach. For non-longshot wagers, the two approaches are approximately equivalent.

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07-10-2019 , 01:33 PM

#12

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorEd

Yea...bovada has more juice than pinny. Especially on longshots like this because its easy to get away with. Theyre basically just putting a one way market, Figher A might as well be -100000. Im not sure what youre getting at exactly.

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07-10-2019 , 09:48 PM

#13

NajdorfDefense

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 17,563

He thinks true odds and no-vig lines are the same. Only in craps, my friend.

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07-11-2019 , 01:58 AM

#14

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

Quote:

Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense

He thinks true odds and no-vig lines are the same. Only in craps, my friend.

So we have a -50000 +3200 situation,
What odds would you need on the underdog to feel you’re comfortable +EV

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07-12-2019 , 01:12 PM

#15

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

I sat here making kind of a snarky post about this but maybe it is an interesting question when you boil it down...what price really would you need? +3400 is technically +EV but would you really want to take that side for whatever % of your roll you want for a million bets in a row? I dont think I would. +3500? I dont think so either. What do you guys think maybe Im missing something obvious.

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07-12-2019 , 01:44 PM

#16

PaiDaMorte

adept

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 716

Quote:

Originally Posted by Like

You'r missing the true probability of that happening.

If the +3400 event was happening 2,9% of the time, probabily pass on the tiny ev.

But if the +3400 event happened 10% of the time. Unload it !!!

PS: Cmon people, this is suposed to be an experts forum... This is simple math...

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07-12-2019 , 04:03 PM

#17

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

Obviously if you knew the true probability none of this would matter. Thats obvious. What hes asking is if you all you had for info was a -50000 +3200 line, would you take +3400. I think its an interesting question and your post doesnt address it at all.

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07-12-2019 , 05:11 PM

#18

solring

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 266

+3400 is just marginally +EV, as Poogs already said...

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07-12-2019 , 05:33 PM

#19

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

I don't bet tennis nor do I live bet so I can't make an informed comment specific to this market.

However in the general case of playing one market against another you should ask yourself a few questions: Which market (if any) do you think is sharper? What limits are they are taking? How do they treat professional bettors? What is the total vig in the market? Are the lines moving based on action or is this just one bookmaker's opinion vs. another? These are the nuanced questions that experienced board cleaners can answer with a degree of expertise.

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07-12-2019 , 11:28 PM

#20

atrainpsu

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,840

If a book is offering -50000/+3400 for a livebet, they are never getting action on the -50000, so basically they are offering one side.

In most cases where I’ve seen lines like this, I have the underdog projected to win at < 1%. My guess is most books don’t want to offer anything above like 50:1 on a livebet. So I don’t think there is a much information gained from looking at these lines.

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07-13-2019 , 12:26 AM

#21

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

Quote:

Originally Posted by atrainpsu

Pretty much this is what I’m thinking.

I can guarantee you I will cherry pick all -50000 +3200 and offer anyone +4000 blindly all day long.

I agree that if it’s -50000 +3200... it’s more like 110/1

If you truly feel it’s +3500 is +EV then why not offer -4500 as where people are likely to bet it. Anyone betting -4500 is betting a horrible line and will lose.

-50000 +3200... the vig free is around 110/1 (+11000) which I still feel is low in most these situations.

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07-13-2019 , 12:28 AM

#22

ProfessorEd

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 268

Quote:

Originally Posted by solring

+3400 is just marginally +EV, as Poogs already said...

Couldn’t disagree more.

Bovada and Bet365 will have -10000 +1600 (they have many)

Based on what you’re saying ~+1800 is +EV

Wrong.

Pinnacle has same lines for same match -7500 +2250

You can’t blindly take an underdog price a book is offering and add a couple hundred points and think it’s +EV. They won’t ever offer anyone near huge longshot odds on a heads up match.

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07-13-2019 , 10:21 AM

#23

heehaww

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 5,081

When people talk about "the vig-free line" I thought it was implied that they're basing it on the sharpest lines (Pinnacle or whatever). Only a clueless person would try to derive the fair line from Bovada lol.

Oh every book has the monday night game -4/+4 but at Bovada it's -6/+6 -110? Gee I guess the vig-free line is +6 (100).

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07-13-2019 , 12:04 PM

#24

hedgie43

old hand

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 1,308

Quote:

Originally Posted by ProfessorEd

No bookmaker is going to offer -4500/+3200. That's a theoretical hold of less than 1%.

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07-13-2019 , 03:57 PM

#25

Fubster

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 8,949

When one side of the bet is a huge lay number that's set to discourage action, it's going to screw up the calculation

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