Yea, exactly.

I thought were all operating under the assumption that the -50000 +3200 line was from pinny and there wasnt a better line out there. All this bovada talk is muddying the waters.

Still thought there is something here. One guy is saying +3400 is marginally +EV and another is saying he would happily give anyone +4000. So both cant be right.

1) figure out the true odds of the event happening,
2) See if the longshot is profitable +ev,
3) if so, bet it in some Kelly fraction

Stop conflating the real odds and the no-vig line. Otherwise this discussion will continue to go nowhere.

If you don't know the correct odds, how do you know you are ever making a +ev bet? [say, in a live tennis match, to use the given example]
It's not an arb to pinny so board cleaners are gonna have to do some advanced modeling.

YOURE making the discussion go no where.

The question is posed as if you dont know the true odds (or have any opinion whatsoever). What hes asking is if you know nothing about an event other than pinny has it at -50000 +3200 which is the best price on both teams at every major book, or, for the sake of discussion, the only book that has a line out. If someone offered you +3400 - again, you know nothing else about the match - would you take it? If not, would you book it?

Poogs actually came out looking pretty good here.

If there is a Malaysian curling event taking place in an hour and Pinnacle Sports are taking $50k on either side, and Pinnacle has listed -400/+300 for the match, is the true probability of the favourite winning -350 = 71.43%, or is it -320 =76.19%?

That's actually a massive difference, if they're setting the vig to have equal buffers on either side based on cents, or based on probability percent.

It was an interesting discussion until the resident expert came in and condescendingly tarded everything up

lol sneaky best post in the thread.

Lets all operate under the assumption that we know the exact true probability of an event happening in the future, yet the market doesnt.

COME ON SUPOSED TO BE A EXPERTS FORUM!

Likely the later assuming they apply margins in Malaysian curling like they do else where

ya know im sorry but I just have to. This post is so condescending yet misses the mark badly...


Of course we don't know the "correct odds"!! This is like someone posting a math question they dont know and you saying "just put in the answer! Its easy!"

Of course if know what the 'correct odds' should be, this is a trivial problem.

The question here, which clearly you and the other genius PiaMaMarti or whatever didnt understand, is what do you do when this is all the info you have.

Lets say pinny has a game lined at -50000 +3200. That is ALL the info you have. You dont know what the "correct odds' should be (because again, that would make all of this useless). The no-vig line here is +/-3400.

So are you betting +3450? Why or not? If not, would you book someone else at -3450?

If you continue to make ridiculous assumptions about 'knowing the correct odds', this discussion will go nowhere.

PS: Cmon people, this is suposed to be an experts forum... This is simple math...

I'm pretty baffled by this thread.

If the only info you have are the lines from one book (that we'll assume isn't taking a bath on the wager) at -50000 and +3200 then you have literally zero information on whether the true odds for the underdog are 3%, 0.2%, or any number in between.

A "no-vig" line isn't really an actual thing here. It's just a number used to estimate the true probability of an event given nothing but a sharp line. For less lopsided lines (which is almost all of them) and low juice, the margin of error is relatively small.

If someone wants to study the best way to calculate a no-vig line from Pinnacle lines to predict true odds then I'm interested to read it. I suspect no one here has that answer handy, or that if they do they're not willing to share it.

Right...we know all that. But the discussion was that if thats youre only info and you had to take a side, would you rather book -4000 or play +4000?