I want to start a new thread about "value betting" system and exchange experience, technics, tools, etc.
I 've been using this approach for 3+ years now and this system gave me 21% yield. Actually it's is quite good but I know it could be 2x or 3x better. Just need to improve few things, listen to good advcices, maybe open mind to something new. I hope this thread will help me.

For a good start I describe my approach. In "value betting" the main idea is: if you constantly find value bets, you will be a profitable bettor in the long run. In order to find value, you need to watch the market of "sharp" bookies (like Pinnacle) and capture big odds movements. Dropping odds are happening due to various reasons (fixed game, players injuries, etc). When Pinnacle drops the odd this is only the matter of time when every other bookie drop their odds too. The whole trick is that you need to be quicker and place a "bet with value" before the odd is dropped.
Obviously the more and bookies accounts you have open, the bigger number of odds choices. And obviously you need a good tool for monitoring the "sharp" bookies, but there's a big choice on the market (dombetting, oddsportal, etc...)

So, anyone using this system ? Can you share your experience, results, and tools you use?

Hope it's only a beginning of a nice topic

wow man I think youre on to something big here!

hopefully this thread picks up some steam

You are not out fasting the computers in this day and age. In the '80's you could stand in front of the sportsbook in Vegas, see a number move and have plenty of time to call your local book well before they updated their numbers. Those days are long gone without having advanced methods at your disposal and even then I'd imagine it is still very difficult.

Reverse line moves are still the holy grail of finding value and as a poker player I get to hear punters opinions all the time at the tables which only confirm the public opinion along with data from sportsinsights and such. Last nights NFL game was a perfect example with the Under a big reverse line move, 73% on the Over with the Total dropping from 54.5 to 51.5 leading up to game day......along with Joe Drinker in the 4-seat bragging about how the Saints will score 40 themselves.

Even better..... make the bet before the line moves!

That way its much easier to get the line you want.

D.

73% of what ? What’s a reverse line move lol ?

Predict market movements based on sharps books?

Go 2 steps up from there. Read this book:

https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide...ct_top?ie=UTF8

I've made a living doing something similar this for the last 5 years.

Instead of just taking the side different to pinnacle, I take the side that is really different to pinnacle and typically hedge off on pinnacle.

Things like get U53.5 at evens and hedge at pinnacle o50.5.

The hedging component will lose you some value (you still pay vig on the assumed perfect pinn line). But i'm not looking to maximise my EV with every bet, i'm looking to maximise my bankroll growth.

These guys ran a system very similiar to what the OP is suggesting

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1710/1710.02824.pdf

paying vig? what's that?

Technically I do use the term incorrectly.

By Vig I mean the comission. Pinnacle pays 1.925, should be $2

I would love to see what game you saw under 53.5 ev somewhere and over 50.5 at Pinny, without Pinny being way jacked up on juice, like -135 or something.

Ive seen that before quite rarely though, nfl totals are usually reasonably tight between the bookies. That was just a made up example. The best Ive ever seen (I mentioned it here a couple years ago and was laughed at)

I think it was week 12 of the 2016 NFL season
ezekiel elliot, u105.5 and over 80.5 rush yards
dez bryant u75.5 o42.5 rec yards, all bets paying either $1.87/1.88/1.9. I had around $5k on each of those bets and every single bet won.

If you are American you probably don't believe me, but in my country gambling is far more liberal than yours. Things have changed dramatically over the last year (losing pinnacle), but i can still drive within 10mins of my house and have the choice of 5 establishments allowing me to bet 20k+ (completely legal) on lines that are unfortunately too sharp.

Recently I found a few good ones in the big bash cricket.

under 13.5 6's 1.66 hedged with over 10.5 at $1.92

another game I recently had

u24.5 4's with o21.5 in the same game team A u12.5 4's and over 10.5, all $1.87 or $1.90. team A got 12 and team B got 10.

I can bet completely legal from my house at 10+ books in Vegas.
Yes, I have seen some crazy props on Football before, I tried tonight to go thru some but was too many and not easy to find the same bets to even check the lines.

A few times I have got the ultimate tho, an arb that is a middle also. Never hit the middle but made the money anyway.

very rare for me to see arb middles without pinnacle. It was great having the option to shift the line and pay a little.

The data in rugby union says win margins are quite uniform, wins by 7/3 occurs quite uniformly as opposed to say a win of 2/6/8 in rugby league. With some union teams though arguments can be made that those games will have win margins of 3/7 more often than the population.

On the right games you could shift that line to get yourself some nice edges. The only major consistent error I noticed by pinn.

so on the screen it was 2 but after you bet it became 1.925?

No,

The bookies profit is vig

I.e. bets on a coin flip pay $1.925 not the rake free $2.

But where do you pay it? Did you want those odds or not? I dont get it