Question #1
The prevailing bonus whoring strategy that I've read repeatedly on 2p2 and other sites is use free plays and risk free bets to bet on underdogs and then hedge on the favorite in another book to guarantee a profit.
BUT...
Couldn't I improve on that strategy by betting on a sporting event with three outcomes (soccer) rather than two (basketball)? In basketball, I have to bet on Team A or Team B. In soccer, I can bet Team A, Team B, or a draw. That means I can reduce variance by making two underdog bets in the same game in two separate sportsbooks. Assuming I have multiple sportsbooks and promotions available to me and I have the time to deal with two promotions at once, wouldn’t I be making fewer -EV hedges if I used soccer?
Example in spoiler:
Question #2:
I’m in Maryland. I have 10+ sportsbooks opening up in my state next month and probably more to follow. I’m planning on grabbing bonuses from every single one of them if I can. I have a $11k stake to throw at bonus whoring and probably no serious future in sports betting because I don't watch sports. (I understand the rules because I watched and played a ton when I was younger, but I would literally have a tough time naming 5 current players in the NFL, MLB, NBA, or NHL.)
If you were me, would you bother making those hedge bets at all? Would you be hedging, but not for the full amount? Would you consider hedging on the largest bets for $1250 but not on the cheap $25 free plays that some sites are offering?
The way I see it, every dollar I spend hedging is reducing variance, but also +EV. Assuming that I have enough sense to begin with the smaller bonuses ($200 in risk free bets) and work my way up to the largest bonuses ($1250 in risk free bets), is there a strong argument to be made that I’m better off forgetting about hedging all together and taking my chances that 40-50 +EV wagers with odds between +200 and +400 are probably going to pay off? I realize it’s not a sure thing, but this one of those few times the odds are in my favor, right? I think it’s time to gambol.
