Line shopping is the vast majority of being being a successful sports bettor. And by vast... I mean vast.

Here I'll bump my post to make it easier for everyone to re-read. Dudd, I think its pretty clear when you read that sentence IN CONTEXT to see what I was saying.

Again, I agree with you all. The only thing I was saying is that it doesn't matter as much as MT2R's experiment showed. Thats the only part I was disagreeing with. All this season I have line shopped around Vegas, and as I take it even more seriously I will incorporate illegal books and online accounts as well so that I can line shop even better. I, in no way, intend to not use line shopping as a major tool.

Lip service is dated.

I think this thread has been great, hope it continues. A lot of what I have read on this forum that I did not understand (b/c it was spoken in code... sort of) has been made clear in this thread.

I have a lot to learn still, but thanks for all of the insight.

Assani, please stop being defensive about your comment... when I read it, I took it the same as these guys flaming you... lets just move on please...

bump since it was not answered...

Did Ganchrow ever release part III? When I googled it took me back to part II.

Do you guys calculate your EG for every bet, or is it more about understanding that taking the bets that have a higher probability of occuring are better even when you have a greater edge on a lower probability game?

If you do calculate every bet do you do it by hand or use a calculator or spreadsheet?

Also, how can I quantify my edge so I can make a Kelly bet size... ball park figure?

Say I like a TB over GB and I get them pk, but the true line is -1 what's my edge?
Or I get them at -1 but at -105 or +100 juice vs the standard -110?

I have not figured out the moneyline translation, but suppose I get -20 better than other sites...

I am sure all of this adds to my edge, but how do I figure out how much is my edge so that I can figure out my Kelly bet size?

Thanks

In terms of line shopping, is it enough to have 10 different online books, including some known for having pretty different lines, or is it imperative to look for local bookies as well? I don't live near Vegas, so that isn't an option. I've never dealt with a bookie before, but if the potential benefits far outweigh the risks of not getting paid and whatnot, then it's something I guess I'd have to strongly consider.

yea, I meant to ask this too...

while obviously the more places you can line shop the better, what would you say is the minimum # of books you should line shop at?

smartcapper.com has some good information you might like.

Also, it's not about the # of books, per se. It's about which ones you pick.

I don't think he ever released a part III.

I don't but I can't speak for anyone else. I do for some subsets to see how I am preforming compared to expectation. I also calculate the EG of various hedging choices to find the optimal one.

spreadsheet

To quantify your edge you need to determine the probability of a bet winning and comparing that to the odds available.

p1=prob GB wins
p2=prob TB by 1
p3=prob TB by more than 1

say your choices are -1 +100 or -110 on the moneyline

Bet x proportion of your roll on -1 +100
EG=(1-x)^p1*(1+x)^p3

Bet x proportion of your roll moneyline -110
EG=(1-x)^p1*(1+x/1.1)^(p2+p3)

The one with the higher EG is the better play.

It has been a while since I performed such calculations... I am trying to make my own spreadsheet...

Please clarify, the equation in red, (1+x) is really (1+x/+100 or 1.0) so if the spread odds are -105 would it bet 1+x/1.05? how does + or - effect the equation?

For x do I just enter different %'s of my BR like 0.05 or 0.10, etc?

I made the following assumptions...


P1 (L) 0.40 Probability of a loss
P2 (T) 0.50 Probability of a tie
P3 (W) 0.10 Probability of a win
1.00 Sum of Probabilities
X 0.10 Amount to bet
O1 1.00 Odds of option 1
O2 1.10 Odds of option 2

Bet Spread (O1)

EG= 0.968

Bet ML (O2)

EG= 1.010


so if my assumptions are accurate, then the ML is the better play, right?

Thanks

yeah you are correct -105 would be (1+x/1.05). If hte bet were +105 then it would be (1+1.05*x), if it were +350 then (1+3.5*x).

x=.01 means one percent of your BR.
x=.1 would be 10% of your BR.

say you made a bet of 2% of your roll on +200. So the term would be (1+2*.02)=1.04, if you won your new roll would be 1.04 times bigger than original, but if you lost your roll would be (1-.02)=0.98. That is how to think about those terms intutively.

The above is warm and inviting? REALLY?

For some reason people responded to you with more information than any other peckerhead could only dream of getting in 1 area, within 4 days YET you still complain about trolls and are totally blind to the best points made in here.

You write the dumbest **** in response to the information here, how could anyone think you are not trolling.

You are so delusional its ridiculous.

So in my example where where true line is TB -1
P1 = loss
P2 = Tie
P3 = Win

Now if I got the line at TB pk, would reasonable probabilities be:

for example
P1 = GB wins = I lose 40%
P2 = TB wins by 1, True odds, very likely = tie = 50%
P3 = TB wins by more than 1, I win = 10%

So if I get TB at pk, the prob I win is 60%...

Is this correct so far?

no, those are not reasonable probabilities.

I'm a newb sports bettor who is starting out. I dedicated a small roll across 5 books. it's not enough books to get different lines, or I didn't pick a diverse enough group of books, or my problem is that I'm only betting NFL right now. probably all 3 are a sizable problems.

I have...

5dimes
The Greek
Sportbet.com
Bookmaker
BetJamaica

You need to have SIA on there for sure.

so how would you assign probabilities to that game...
GB wins 20%, 15%, 10%
TB wins by 1 (true line) 60%, 70%, 80%
TB wins by more then 1 20%, 15%, 10%

Is this intuitely how I should think about the probabilities... the true line has the greatest probability of occurring, while the other options have a much lower probability?

The value of points, like the value of runs in baseball, is documented. It's calculated by figuring out the push %, the % of time that a game lined a certain way will fall on exactly that number. There are charts and calcuators for this, and Wong covers this explicitly in his book.

add bodog too. soft props.

Or you (the undefined sort) can cite the cover % of away faves in NFL as a reason to not tease, but not to bet massively on the opposite side in all sorts of absurd derivatives.

Oh, you.

I suspect it will be a while before I figure out this code...

maybe it means don't tease games where the fav is away and don't bet too much on Home dogs...

It's a side jopke. ProfBen and MT2R will probably get it. It actually has nothing to do with this thread.

Durrrrrr....more trolling talking about how not enough has been spoon-fed to me yet....durrrrrr....more multi-para posts while I don't read the FAQ....durrrrr