You are ignoring the fact that those huge limits on NFL make those smaller edges worth more to those with huge bankrolls.

Assani,

Nobody is going to spoon feed you how to do this. Why should anybody who paid the money for SSB and WTOISB, or won/lost and learned with their money in in the process and currently has a grasp on this hand it over to you for free just because you ask politely? Like Boot said why should somebody who could care less about you waste their time getting on here telling you "I'm betting this line at this site, and holy **** the line at this site has now moved to this spread so I'm about to bet on both sides of a game at these 2 sites so everybody climb on board? What do they have to gain? Absolutely nothing. Example, why would you sit a complete stranger down for a day and say "hey buddy I've noticed when playing with you that you suck at poker but I want to see you do better next time I see you at the tables because I want you to make money too, here's what I do when I play and here's what you need to learn". What will that do for your EG the next to time your up against this guy at the table? Nothing. Same thing in SB. If a person gives you the specifics, either A) they've already layed their bet and the odds aren't going to be exactly the same or B) they haven't bet yet and you beat them to it by taking their advice and they get screwed out of money in the process. When you get done with WTOISB you will have an even better understanding of what King Yao is talking about. Read the damn books and take what you can get from them, which you will gain a lot, I sure did and go from there.

AssF has successfully trolled the forum once again.

I am willing to bet 3-1 odds he does the same thing again next year, still hasn't read the FAQ, still pretends he doesn't understand why people won't hand him free money, and still gets Tilted responses from knowledgeable posters.

However, much of the advice is, as per usual, excellent, as Perf noted.

Also - LOL at those who think you can do 60% vs WA-lines in the long-run over thousands and thousands of trials. You have about as much chance as my 150%+ ROI at craps for the past 3.5 years lasting another 3.5 years. [blind luck is your only shot]

Oh Assani. You're such a tool. You'll continue to post the same ******ed questions in the same method while totally neglecting to do any work on your own. Making money in sports is super easy though I doubt you'll ever have a tenth of the success I have had purely out of 1) stupidity 2) naivety 3) not understanding whats important to learn (Hint: Finding +EV bets is super trivial)

Thanks for starting this thread AF,

I was actually going to start a "Get your Noob out here" thread the other day.

I like NFL football and it is generally the only sport I follow. I decided to start betting on it to help keep the interest in different games all season. While I do not expect to make a killing, I just hope to win more then I lose. I am also just about done w/ Wong's book, and will start on Yao's book next.

For me, 1 unit is only $3, actually I moved it up to $4 this week. It is not about the money, but about winning and success.

I have not figured out to handicap yet, but I look at the games, look at the records and listen to any football stats discussed on the radio, watch the games and get an idea of who I like.

The way I line shop (living in CT) is on Tuesday morning I look at Sheridan's line (usa today), look at the lines in the weekly pools I am in (CBSSportsline, ESPN), then Tues night I look at the lines at the 3 sites I have money in. If I see a game I like, I will bet 1-2 units at the site with the best spread, ML, vig, etc. I will continue to check Sheridan and the online sites throughout the week. Shopping online does not really take that much time. Maybe I need to open some other accounts at some B sites... not sure.

I am 11-7-0 so far this season, so I am happy!

While I will never retire from the money I win, it has really made me look forward to Football season and Sunday and Mon night.

Danny Sheridan is garbage. In terms of finding a good 4th line to compare to, go look at the lines on Pinnacle or Matchbook.

Actually, this is totally wrong. This entire thread is the forum spoon-feeding this guy how to do it. They're just spicing it up with a little self-love while they do it.

Would someone elaborate on this... maybe give an example... I will try to explain what I think is being said...

the line opens, say TB GB pk, the next day TB -1/2, next day TB -1 so you like GB and lock it in, but the next day the line continues to move to TB -1 1/2... you locked in too early... Is this what Performify is saying?

Basically...yes.

very true

it gets back to the point
this forum has given away many of the keys to the kingdom if someone would just take the time and READ what has been written

But that is hard. I need a tutor.

I just want to say that Thremp has taught me more about sports betting than anyone other than myself

it's his insults and rantings that have had me go and look at his points

even better than telling me what to do, his insults told me where to look to learn how

this forum does not believe in teaching the what
it is very good at the how

I don't think it needs to be changed at all

I compare it to other forums that teach the what, yet I see guys grinding the same levels for years that don't understand huge theory behind anything they do

Thanks for the link, this was a great read.

Did Ganchrow ever release part III? When I googled it took me back to part II

Also, how can I quantify my edge... ball park?

Say I like a TB over GB and I get them pk, but the true line is -1 what's my edge?
Or I get them at -1 but at -105 or +100 juice vs the standard -110?

I have not figured out the moneyline translation, but suppose I get -20 better than other sites...
I am sure all of this adds to my edge, but how much so that I can figure out my Kelly bet size?

Thanks

this is very tommy angeloian. learning how to deal with thremp is a high-limit concept in itself imo. my personal philosophy is that he can call me an idiot/dense/******ed all he wants as long as he continues to answer my questions. it's nothing personal. just money.

What do you mean its not the first day of class? To you maybe not as you've been doing this for a long while. But I just started taking it seriously with this thread, so to me this very much is the first day of class. So what I did was outline a syllabus of going through the FAQ, reading SSB, and then reading Yao's book. Then I asked some basic first day type questions.

I am going to read through the FAQ and all of those books. Thats what this "course" will be about.

Can you imagine a professor simply saying "Read these textbooks on your own and then get back to me"...maybe the students would be expected to have done previous reading in an advanced class, but as I said this thread is very much a 101 type thread.

If you don't feel like "being my professor" then by all means you don't have to help. I do greatly appriciate those who have been kind enough to help and those who will continue to help as I begin my studies in coming weeks. I don't see the need for those who don't wish to help to derail the thread though.

You guys pretty much come into every thread I start and call me a troll. Why not just avoid my threads then?

I've already stated multiple times the work I intend to do. I assumed that there were many people out there similar to me who would be interested in learning, and having a study group makes it much easier to go through the material. Moreover, there are posters here who are willing to help with questions I have along the way. You guys aren't, and thats fine. Please excuse yourselves from the thread then.

Its funny.... I almost never enter your guys' threads. You two always come into my threads and insult me and derail the topic. Yet you call me the troll. Seriously, think about it for a second.

I agree totally that much of the advice has been excellent so far. And go back and take a look at how I responded to every single bit of excellent advice- it was with follow up questions to spur conversation and making sure to thank them for their time. The only time this thread has been derailed is by posters such as you two. Since you apparently like the excellent advice that is often given in my threads, then why not just avoid the "OMG nobody is going to help you for nothing" type of posts that are clogging up this thread and making that excellent advice tougher to find for everyone reading through the thread?

edited to add: I will take you up on your 3-1 odds. In fact, I will bet you that I have read the FAQ by the end of 2008. What is the maximum amount you'd be willing to bet on this? I could read it aloud, record it, and post it online for proof if necessary.

edited again to add: Would you like me to take a picture of my newly acquired SSB and post it here? Would that prove to you that I'm willing to pay for the right materials and work in order to learn?

Read through the first two chapters of SSB...seems kinda introductory without any meat so far. Will continue to read it. Will start reading through the FAQ again sometime soon as well.

In the time it took you to write all the whiny/bad posts in this thread you could have read the entire FAQ plus some very good links.

Understood. Look my goal is to be a sharp before the 2009 NFL season begins. I have plenty of time. I'm certainly not going to rush through all of the reading materials only to have missed a lot of the points. And theres no way I'm going to read through the entire FAQ that quickly, as I think it'll be counterproductive.

I agree. I mean I took the guy off ignore specifically for this thread. Even look at my first response to him here- it was very warm and inviting. Yet all hes done is insult me. Others have provided much better advice than he has so far. His only advice is "read the FAQ and books" which I already intended on doing before he showed up in this thread. At this point, hes just become a distraction and he'll probably be back on my ignore list soon.

I think you're intentionally missing the point most of them are making. There is a specific reason most people don't mind ImBen's scathing remarks either or ShipIt's. But you're intentionally being ignorant.

In addition, there is no advantage for reading over stuff slowly. You'll probably end up rereading many of those articles multiple times for reference.

You write things like this:

and then expect people to take you seriously? It's like someone in a poker forum saying that they understand that implied odds and pot odds matter, but they don't matter that much, will someone please tell me how to read souls?

I found the quote even funnier in the context of him saying he had 5 push/losses that could have been wins out of 35 bets...and then saying it "didnt matter that much."

LOL, dude way to take my comment WAY WAY out of context.

I said that line shopping matters but not as much as it showed in MT2R's experiment.

I did NOT say "they don't matter that much" meaning that they're not important or that every winning sports bettor doesn't line shop even though WHEN YOU TAKE MY COMMENT OUT OF CONTEXT LIKE YOU DID IT DOES LOOK LIKE THATS EXACTLY WHAT I'M SAYING.


Heres an analogy:

I say: "Hitting your free throws matters a ton in winning basketball games"

Now suppose I randomly pick 100 NBA games and in 95 out of 100 the team that shot better from the foul line ended up winning the game. Obviously my point has been proven somewhat.

Now you look at that, and while you agree that hitting FTs is important, you don't think it is nearly as important as my 100 game sampling showed(with 95% winning). So you say "I agree that its important, but its not that important" where 'that' is in reference to my study.



Maybe I was just unclear in what I said, and if so I apologize.

Ok apparently since multiple people have misunderstood me then it was my fault for not being clear what the "that" in my statement was referring to. Guys go back and re-read it again and I think you'll understand what I was saying now(and agree with me). I was saying that its important, but usually its not so important that it will impact 5 out of every 35 bets which is what his study showed.