Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustjive
This is something I've been wanting to ask about - people love to throw around the term "the public" when talking about line movements, but by all accounts, sharp books don't give a **** about the public in regards to lines moving. That is to say, BSPs will never, ever move an Pinny line.
Confirm/deny?
For the most part this is true.In college/NBA bb,baseball,hockey and 98% of college football public money will not move the line...ever..The exception to this is the NFL where the public does move the line,not with the volatility that the professional bettors move basketball,baseball and CFB lines,more like nudging it.Here are some reasons why:
1.Pure Volume..Books average handle on an NFL game is typically about 30x the handle on an average CFB game(It may be about the same on a big game like USC-OSU but it may be 100x on a game like Ball St-Akron),and its about 100x for a typical basketball or MLB game.The bettors have no edge playing into a line that's been played into by 90 million guys so it takes many more bets and much more money to move a NFL number
2.The professional betting syndicates that kick lines in CFB,CBB and MLB don't play much NFL because they know there is no edge for the player.When they do bet NFL it is not nearly for the amount they play on other sports and it's usually just to keep the books happy.In the past some services like Dr Bob,Phil Steele and Score have been able to move lines in both NFL and CFB under 2 conditions,they have a huge following and have been running hot.
3.Books don't fear NFL bets.Some Vegas books have limits of 20k for a NFL side and $500 for a CBB total.Why?Because they don't fear NFL betting.Books generally don't treat bets any different between sharps and squares in NFL because they know there is no edge.A bet from certain players will instantly move a line in CFB but the same bet on a NFL game will do nothing to the line
Basically the books and the sharps know there is no edge betting NFL..if there is it is very small not close to the edge that can be had in other sports.Line moves are generated in the NFL generally by public money nudging it,it may be 6 on Wed,6.5 Thurs,7 sat and 7.5 by Sunday..You will not see games go from 6 to 7.5 across the board in 30 seconds time like you do in CFB or basketball.
The reason public money is able to generate line moves in the NFL is because in other sports the books may be holdin 30-50% sharp money on the handle of a game,but in NFL sharp money generally represents about 2% of the handle.