"predicting line movement"

Another concept that I've seen mentioned countless times, but I havn't seen anyone explain the basics of. Obviously I understand its an inexact science, but can anyone provide an example from the past 3 NFL weeks where they correctly predicted the line movement and their throught process?

Is it as simple as "The public seems to be all over this side, therefore its going to move by the end of the week"?

I think this is the best advice for Assani.

This is something I've been wanting to ask about - people love to throw around the term "the public" when talking about line movements, but by all accounts, sharp books don't give a **** about the public in regards to lines moving. That is to say, BSPs will never, ever move an Pinny line.

Confirm/deny?

I skimmed through the FAQ and the links there. As I said in OP, I wanted to set this thread up and ask a few basic questions to get things rolling. Then I'm going to go through the FAQ in detail and ask more questions. Then I'm going to go through Sharp Sports Betting in detail and ask more questions.


I still don't understand this "We have to make newbs work ultra hard before we just hand over this ultra secretive advice" line of thought in this forum.

Many people, myself included, learn better with having a teacher they can ask questions rather than just reading. I mean, according to your line of reasoning, college professors are completely uneccessary because the information is already there in the text books so the students should just stop being lazy and gather that info themselves. Do you not see how flawed this logic is? It greatly speeds up the learning process for the students to be able to ask questions and be guided along the way. That doesn't mean that the students aren't working hard to learn.

I'm sure you'll have some generic insult to respond to me with(per your standard MO), and I'm sure you'll continue to contribute nothing but vague responses and one liners throughout the rest of the thread. I still don't understand what you get out of posting on 2p2. You don't help anyone and nearly every thread you enter is derailed because of your attitude and demeanor.

Curious on why you think the books weren't able to gather the info that you had then. Or do you think that the books knew what you did but the public was all over the other side for some reason and they won money with you on that game?

Thanks. Yea I was starting to understand that, but you said it very well and definitely speeded up my learning process there.

I'll read through SSB first and see if I'm moving in the right direction and enjoying learning more. If so then I'll buy Yao's book. If not, then maybe it just isn't for me.


Not much to say about the rest of the post other than I agree and understand what you're saying. I think one of the first parts of "my game" that I would like to work on is predicting line movements. At least I want to get into the mindset of considering it before making my bets each week.

Assani,

You make me laugh. So I will continue. You ask questions like "What is EG?" What is someone suppose to do. Here I will attempt to answer:

Expected Growth (EG) is the ultimate goal of betting.

Does it do you any good? No. The subject has many nuances and I don't think I've come close to mastering them despite spending an inordinate amount of time on the subject. There is no quick and easy way.

To explain this in donkish analogy terms that you understand: You are like a student who has not come to class, not done his homework, and comes during office hours with a surly attitude and asks "You have any tips for how to do well on the tests?" and then the teacher responds, "Sorry, fresh out of tips today." and resumes reading the paper.

Expected growth reflects the results of bankroll management.

Advantage play (+EV) reflects the results of line shopping and handicapping/analysis.

They are independent of one another. However without +EV plays no bankroll management method in the universe will get that person ahead.

Analogy: you just bought a $500,000 car, but can't go anywhere because there is no gas in the tank.

and one more answer to get to the same question: google.

http://www.google.com/search?q=expected+growth

(points to Ganchrow's excellent post on the subject, which Thremp had already recommended but didn't directly link to. Yay, google)

-P

I do not claim to be anywhere near an expert on this subject. However, look at the o/u for MNF last night. The line was at 44 basically the majority of the week and then in the day before the game, it moved up to 46. Covers even reports 47. I can't point anywhere out but I've read a number of places about hopping on MNF overs early. The moral is that usually betting over in MNF should be done early and betting under should be done late.

A number of sites will show you how the line has moved over time. However, I don't know any way to use early line movements to predict later line moves.

If you look at the line moves for week 1/2 MNF games, all 3 moved down day of the game.

To carry out your silly analogy....

I just started this thread yesterday. This is like the first day of class, and its an intro(or 101) class. Do you not think that professors go over and answer very basic questions on the very first day? How many tests did your professors give on the first day?

I do plan on doing my homework(reading the FAQ in detail, reading SSB, reading Yao's book) over the course of this "class". However, expecting me to have put in a ton of work after one day is foolish.

Also, LOL@ me having a surly attitude. I've repeatedly thanked those who have been kind enough to help and been very friendly.

For the most part this is true.In college/NBA bb,baseball,hockey and 98% of college football public money will not move the line...ever..The exception to this is the NFL where the public does move the line,not with the volatility that the professional bettors move basketball,baseball and CFB lines,more like nudging it.Here are some reasons why:

1.Pure Volume..Books average handle on an NFL game is typically about 30x the handle on an average CFB game(It may be about the same on a big game like USC-OSU but it may be 100x on a game like Ball St-Akron),and its about 100x for a typical basketball or MLB game.The bettors have no edge playing into a line that's been played into by 90 million guys so it takes many more bets and much more money to move a NFL number

2.The professional betting syndicates that kick lines in CFB,CBB and MLB don't play much NFL because they know there is no edge for the player.When they do bet NFL it is not nearly for the amount they play on other sports and it's usually just to keep the books happy.In the past some services like Dr Bob,Phil Steele and Score have been able to move lines in both NFL and CFB under 2 conditions,they have a huge following and have been running hot.


3.Books don't fear NFL bets.Some Vegas books have limits of 20k for a NFL side and $500 for a CBB total.Why?Because they don't fear NFL betting.Books generally don't treat bets any different between sharps and squares in NFL because they know there is no edge.A bet from certain players will instantly move a line in CFB but the same bet on a NFL game will do nothing to the line

Basically the books and the sharps know there is no edge betting NFL..if there is it is very small not close to the edge that can be had in other sports.Line moves are generated in the NFL generally by public money nudging it,it may be 6 on Wed,6.5 Thurs,7 sat and 7.5 by Sunday..You will not see games go from 6 to 7.5 across the board in 30 seconds time like you do in CFB or basketball.

The reason public money is able to generate line moves in the NFL is because in other sports the books may be holdin 30-50% sharp money on the handle of a game,but in NFL sharp money generally represents about 2% of the handle.

"3. I still think you guys take this "I've worked hard to learn this, I'm not giving it away for free" line of thought way too seriously. Rsigley wrote earlier in this thread: "if you really want to handicap a sport, find out what work other people have done. you're not going to reinvent the wheel yourself, but you can take work others have done and expand on it." I think that would apply to 99.99% of the people here, meaning that everyone was taught by someone else's work. If I just came in here and said "I don't want to read or learn anything. Can you sharps just give me your picks each week?" then I'd expect to get laughed at. However, I'm clearly willing to read and study, and since you all only learned from other people why is there such a hesitation to pass it on?"

Do you really not get this yet?

Winning cappers aren't going to just be like "oh use such and such data with such and such weight and there are your numbers, go bet them. P.S. I am averaging 2.1% ROI a day for the year.

Expert shoppers aren't going to be like,, oh sure go to Site X every Sunday and pick off these Nascar props when they get put up at 11AM where they steal Greek's lines but if your guy doesnt come in the top 20 your bet gets no actioned instead of a loss. I am only averaging 600% return for the year, but I'll tell 10 other people and watch it disappear next week.

The first guy can say "Use Pecota more", the 2nd guy can say "Check more props" but what the hell are you expecting them to do? Add in the fact they see it 100x a year around here, how would you react?

And FWIW, the majority of the posters here who know what they are doing, are more like guy #2. Guys like #1 are the minority, especially when it comes to winning.


Can you ever imagine putting up $10,000 on a team where you can't name one player on it? You should.

You should know by now that MNF total moves in relation to o/u results on Sunday.

Week 1: Sunday unders 9-5
Week 2: Sunday unders 6-8
Week 3: Sunday overs 10-5

^^^ You know way more than me, but I find that hard to believe, unless you are saying that it moves because stupid bettors are like, "oh man everything went over this weekend I'll be the over on MNF" and vice versa, rather than any causal linkage between a weekend's games and MNF.

Right?

Whatever the reason, the MNF total will consistently move in the direction of Sunday's total results. If you don't believe NFL totals are correlated for a given week, then yes it is stupid bettors.

I suggest you check the archives and confirm it.

I don't know much about the volume of bets in different leagues or % breakdown sharp/square, but your evidence and conclusion seem disjointed. You said that "books fear no NFL bets", but if they are taking 98% public money, why should they? The extra 2% on the "right" side matters only 55% of the time anyway.

Also, if sharp-square breakdown on CBB is 40-60, then these lines will be difficult to beat as sharp money has great power over the line. If sharp-square breakdown is 98-2 in NFL than these lines will be easier to beat as that 2% sharp money can do little to stem the tide of public bets. I mean... right?

Unless, of course, you're talking about virgin lines. In which case I agree, virgin lines are likely to be more difficult to beat in NFL.

It's just that NFL lines are played into by so many people the line is much closer to the right number...As far as basketball goes there may be 60-70 games on the board and probably about 8-12 get played by the sharps so in the rest of the games it's basically you vs the linemaker without alot of opinion already going into the line...Also in basketball fading sharp money AFTER the line moves is not neccesarily a bad thing,if a game is -3 at 6pm and -4.5 at 7 pm if I didn't get down at -3 I'm either taking the 4.5 or passing.

I hear you constantly use the words Sharps and Squares, this is where the terminology is vague.

Obviously one can bet wayyyy more than 8-12 cbb games on a saturday and have it be profitable - does that mean it's not "sharp"??

It's not the first day of class, though. You were given a reading assignment and chose not to read it other than perhaps a very marginal skimming. Come back to the office once you've read, thought about and tried to understand the FAQ.

No not at all just guessing out of the whole card on a typical basketball day how many games see heavy line movements,that's all

Steam,

Your logic is beyond ******ed. You say there is never an edge to be had in the NFL and yet there are line movements not related to injuries. If a line moves from 6 to 7.5, there is an edge at one of those lines. As well, line shopping FTW.

I believe I said the edge is very small compared to the edge bettors can find in other sports