Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustjive
One of the big concepts thrown around on this site is the idea of the Kelly criterion, but I know I for one was one of the people that just ignored it due to laziness/cockiness/it being Thremp's main thing, etc. Big mistake. It's one of the most important concepts however, and not just because it makes for optimal bankroll growth, but because it really forces you to sit down and think about your edge and what it means.
You can look at BAL -1.5, for example, and be surprised that it's not a -3.5 or whatever, but when you translate that into an actual edge and then look at your Kelly bet size, you'll quickly realize that there's no way that that's possible and it'll force you to reexamine your assumptions. Reevaluating all your wagers over an entire season is time-consuming, but in the end it's just refining your methodology so that it's more accurate, which obviously is a positive for handicapping. This is what rsigley mentioned, but no one wants to be told they're wrong. It's more understandable if you put it in terms of "well, if you're right about your edge, why don't you put [some ludicrous amount] on this, huh?"
If I was totally confident in myself I would've placed more than 2 units on that game, but I am not(and probably shouldn't be as I still have a lot to learn).
FWIW I thought the actual line should've been -4.5 or 5. I know that when your line is 3+ off from the book then usually you're wrong, but I felt as if this was different(although maybe I was wrong).
Regarding re-evaluating your wagers, I'm not sure where to start on that. Yes I look at each bet I made and what I did correct and incorrect, but I still get the feeling that I'm not doing what you're suggesting. As an example:
I bet Buff -8.5 this week. It grew all the way to -9.5 by gametime, so I felt good.
It lost and it wasn't one of those ultra close losses either. So I went back and asked myself "Is Oakland better than I gave them credit for?", "Is Buffalo worse than I gave them credit for?", "What happened in the game that I didn't expect?", "If the game was played again tomorrow, would I take the same side again at that line?".
It took about 5-10 minutes, and several of my answers were inconclusive.
As of right now, thats my idea of evaluating my bets. I'm sure that theres a better way to do things, so let me hear it...