what exactly does it mean when you see that the public is one side or the other? Is the side that the public is on, the side that moves the line? Does that mean that there is value in the other side? And if the public is on one side, where are the sharps... on the other side or it depends?

The sharps are the ones who are there at the books when the lines are first released because they already have the lines they've came up with for the game and compare them to what the books have released and have an idea as to what bets to take. Early action changing a line is usually the sharps altering the line, don't take as much into the late action as it's usually squares and the public pouring money in for fun, and the books at that point are just wanting to create equal action on both sides so that they collect the vig. The sharps aren't waking up on Saturday and saying "Holy **** I can't believe I didn't pay more attention to this game, look at this line, A team is gonna kill B team by way more than that. For instance on Monday when college football lines are released, the sharps go betting and altering the number based on the amount of money they put on the game and the respect the books have for that sharp or sharps. On Friday and Saturday, the public will begin looking at the lines and determine what they want to bet on for entertainment for Saturday's games. By then you have some of the most well set lines you can come across, but the public money can/will move the lines again on game day which if your a sharp you should have most of your money down already days before this on games you wanna bet, but at times the public action on game day can back an unneccesary team so much that value now comes on taking the other side because the line may have moved that much in a teams favor. Thats just about the only place you'll find the sharps on game day is when a line gets altered so much that a sweet middle is available or the public has just rediculously moved a line so far off base as to what it should be. Like I said when the public is betting big, the sharps usually have their picks in already, but when the line gets altered enough they will reappear and bet the side where the line has been screwed up based on their numbers

EDIT: Touts telling their idiot public clients their 300 dime game of the week on game day without even giving a specific line can also add to line changing.

I can only begin to imagine the insight TBAB would have brought to this thread! Any chance he reappears during cbball season?

Is this question serious? You honestly have to ask whether or not to take +10 or +9.5 when the standard vig is -110 for +9.5 and you can get it at -105 +10 at your available source?

Assani has asked a lot of elementary questions in this thread, but in his defense what he's asking here is not quite as elementary as the way you're reading it.

And MyTurntoRaise and Rustjive were already nice enough to give him good answers.

Sorry. This thread in general tilts me

I will simply keep repeating this no matter how many times you come in here to troll me:

Why? Why not spend your valuable time read the FAQ and SSB by Wong? Be better use of your valuable time.

Still, the thread did teach me a thing or twenty seven.

I don't think you should be bringing this kind of negativity into the thread, dude.

I got this off the SBR half point calculator, but I have trouble arriving at the # myself.

I get a win % of 52.46% and a price of -110.3.

Similarly, my +9.5 -110 is equiv. to +10 -121.41. This is using a 4.91% push percentage. What am I doing wrong?

Not sure where you're going wrong. Can you show your work a bit?

9.5: Fav 50%, Dog 50%. Hold 4.55%

Assuming your 4.91% push on the 10:
Push: 4.91%, Fav: 45.09%, Dog: 50%
No-vig: -110.9, with 4.55% hold: -122.6/101.3

It's the hold...instead of working from there I started in another, totally wrong place. Thanks for leading me onto the right path though, I found Ganchrow's post on figuring it.

once again he comes back and responds to Naj instead of the plethora of other things out there

i am amazed people are still wasting their time explaining things to this pile of dense

Perf,

I say we lock the thread, make Assani quit wasting his time and everybody on this forums time and have him use that time to read SSB and WTOISB. Then he comes back with questions about things he doesnt get. This thread sucks

agreed

How about instead the people who don't like it don't come in, and the people who want to come in, come in and participate. It's one and only one thread on the board, you can ignore it if you don't want to participate.

Yeah, anyone serious really needs to read SSB and Yao before asking questions, but there's nothing wrong with asking questions on a chapter-by-chapter basis, which is what this thread was originally intended to be.

-P

I agree and I wish it was not such a popularity contest. My lock this week is Buffalo and if anyone wants to give me ten to 1 on sox winning world series I will take it. Wouldn't U??????????

What if someone only has 15 or 20 opinions over the course of a CFB season? Say it's an intuitive/emotional type handicapper (Pg. 11, SB 101). He would have little in the way of quantification and thus would have no way to say, "okay, I'll start making plays I like X% less." He would have no way of converting 20 plays to 100. He just makes the 20 plays. If he tries to force it up to some greater "reasonable" amount of plays, he's giving up his edge.

And how do you presume you have an edge over such a small sample size without any remote idea of what your edge is to begin with?

Results over small sample size per year but many years.

20 bets a year for 20 years won't tell you much, especially as sports betting has gotten a lot more efficient in the last 10 years.

He likes trolling. I'm surprised he stopped his little countdown - he does anything that gets him attention.

He's good at it, srsly.

Still, nothing can beat the world-class boiling oats thread.

Read the entire book. Question on teasers particularly caught my attention, and there just so happened to be a lot of game eligible this week, so I made some bets. A few questions, and then I'll present my bets...all critiques and comments welcome.


1. I was very pleasantly surprised to find that my book paid out the same on teasers even if you took lines that had added juice. For example, my book has -105 lines and if you bet two -105 teams you'll risk $110 to win $100 on a 2 team teaser. However, some lines on my book have added or less juice such as Sea+3(+105)/GB-3(-125)....yet even if you include Green Bay in your two team teaser you still risk $110 to win $100. Is this standard or did I just get lucky to find this?

2. I'm pretty confident that the answer to this is obvious, but just to double check...If some books have a line at 2.5 and others have it at 3 then should you still tease it according to Wong(obviously going to a book that has it at 3)? Or for example if it was 7.5 at some and 7 at others?

3. At the bottom of page 259, Wong says that you need -121 or better to beat 2 team teasers and +147 or better to beat 3 team teasers. What are the numbers for 4 and 5 team teasers? I get 3:1 on 4 teamers, and going by the break even win rate table on page 256, I would only need to be right 70.7% of the time to beat that, so it would be a good bet...however, I'm still interested in knowing the exact break even rate for 4 teamers. And Wong doesn't mention 5 teamers at all, so any help there is appriciated. And yes I realize that all of this can be done mathematically, but the last thing I want to do is make a math error and throw my fundamental understanding off, so I'd much rather just ask the board and get it confirmed.



So I found 5 bets that looked good to me this week:

Green Bay: Most Vegas books have it at +2.5 or +3, Pinnacle has it at +1(+114), my book had it at 3(-125). No brainer here.

NYG: Most Vegas books have it anywhere from -7.5 to -9, Pinnacle has it at -9, somehow my book only has it at -7(-115). Also a no brainer here.

Car: Opened at +3 according to LVSC so I missed a ton of value by waiting here. Curious if everyone still likes it. Most Vegas books at +1.5 or +2. Pinnacle is +1(+105). My book is +1.5. Was this still a good part of the teaser in everyone's opinion?

NO: Vegas has it at -7.5 or -8. All the way up to -9 at Pinnacle. My book has it at -7.5. No brainer here.

Atl: 2.5 most places in Vegas, +3(-119) at Pinnacle. I only got it at +2.5 at my book. I thought about waiting and hoping for it to move up, but I didn't want to miss out on the NYG/NO/GB parts of my teaser, and I thought it wasn't worth the risk so I jumped on it now.


Came out to 26 bets(tell me if I'm forgetting something). I had a max credit line of $10K at my book, so I placed 25 of them and am having a friend place the other.

5 team teaser $400 to win $1800
Car +7.5
No -1.5
GB +9
NYG -1
ATL +8.5

4 team teaser $400 to win $1200
No -1.5
GB +9
NYG -1
ATL +8.5

4 team teaser $400 to win $1200
Car +7.5
GB +9
NYG -1
ATL +8.5

4 team teaser $400 to win $1200
Car +7.5
No -1.5
NYG -1
ATL +8.5

4 team teaser $400 to win $1200
Car +7.5
No -1.5
GB +9
ATL +8.5

4 team teaser $400 to win $1200
Car +7.5
No -1.5
GB +9
NYG -1


3 team teaser $400 to win $640
GB +9
NYG -1
ATL +8.5

3 team teaser $400 to win $640
No -1.5
NYG -1
ATL +8.5

3 team teaser $400 to win $640
No -1.5
GB +9
ATL +8.5

3 team teaser $400 to win $640
No -1.5
GB +9
NYG -1

3 team teaser $400 to win $640
Car +7.5
NYG -1
ATL +8.5

3 team teaser $400 to win $640
Car +7.5
GB +9
ATL +8.5

3 team teaser $400 to win $640
Car +7.5
GB +9
NYG -1

3 team teaser $400 to win $640
Car +7.5
No -1.5
ATL +8.5

3 team teaser $400 to win $640
Car +7.5
No -1.5
NYG -1

3 team teaser $400 to win $640
Car +7.5
No -1.5
GB +9


2 team teaser $400 to win $363
Car +7.5
No -1.5

2 team teaser $400 to win $363
Car +7.5
GB +9

2 team teaser $400 to win $363
Car +7.5
NYG -1

2 team teaser $400 to win $363
Car +7.5
ATL +8.5

2 team teaser $400 to win $363
No -1.5
GB +9

2 team teaser $400 to win $363
No -1.5
NYG -1

2 team teaser $400 to win $363
No -1.5
ATL +8.5

2 team teaser $400 to win $363
GB +9
NYG -1


2 team teaser $400 to win $363
GB +9
ATL +8.5

2 team teaser $400 to win $363
NYG -1
ATL +8.5



Feel like I'm learning a bit, but I'm sure I'm still messing up in some places. As always, any comments appriciated.

1. standard
2. depends what price pinnacle has the game at IMO
3. read the daliman wong FAQ in the FAQ
or, understand the math behind it--it's not hard to multiple things and use the charts on p77-78 to convert that percentage to a price

whats the no brainer part of any of those?

a) +1 +114 at pinnacle is the same exact line as +3 -125
b) -9 +117 at pinnacle is a much better line than -7 -115 at your book