Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr_Jeckyl_00
Thanks for the link, this was a great read.
Did Ganchrow ever release part III? When I googled it took me back to part II
Also, how can I quantify my edge... ball park?
Say I like a TB over GB and I get them pk, but the true line is -1 what's my edge?
Or I get them at -1 but at -105 or +100 juice vs the standard -110?
I have not figured out the moneyline translation, but suppose I get -20 better than other sites...
I am sure all of this adds to my edge, but how much so that I can figure out my Kelly bet size?
Thanks
bump since it was not answered...
Did Ganchrow ever release part III? When I googled it took me back to part II.
Do you guys calculate your EG for every bet, or is it more about understanding that taking the bets that have a higher probability of occuring are better even when you have a greater edge on a lower probability game?
If you do calculate every bet do you do it by hand or use a calculator or spreadsheet?
Also, how can I quantify my edge so I can make a Kelly bet size... ball park figure?
Say I like a TB over GB and I get them pk, but the true line is -1 what's my edge?
Or I get them at -1 but at -105 or +100 juice vs the standard -110?
I have not figured out the moneyline translation, but suppose I get -20 better than other sites...
I am sure all of this adds to my edge, but how do I figure out how much is my edge so that I can figure out my Kelly bet size?
Thanks