They mentioned in the book that you're playing for the big week when you play these. That really does seem true. Quick math here, so I could be wrong but...

all 5 win: I win $17,830
4/5 win: I lose $4382
3/5 win: I lose $8671
2/5 win: I lose $10,037
1/5 or 0/5 win: I lose $10,400

I think he means it's a no-brainer tease since he's negating the extra juice + getting free points.

For straight up bets, you'd be correct. However, as I mentioned my book(and according to MT2R it is standard everywhere) pays out the same on teasers regardless of whether the teams are -125, +125, or anything in between. That would make it great value, no?

So great that maybe I should place extra money just on NO, GB, and NYG(and the 2 team teaser combos within) maybe. Thoughts on that?

edit: looks like Rustjive beat me to it.

ohh makes sense whoops sorry

thought he was betting those in addition to the teaser

but i wouldn't bet the same on every teaser thats not a good idea

you're either over betting or underbetting certain parts of it and costing yourself money

Thanks for the replies.

I've obviously noticed that Pinnacle is the most respected book here, and as you can tell I heavily use that information in my bets above. I'm just curious why that is though. Are the owners simply that much sharper than any other book around? Obviously to only charge -104 juice the lines have to be pretty spot on in order to not get beat. Anyway, was just curious about that if anyone knows.

please do explain why this is. Should I be betting more on the ones with less teams and less on the ones with more teams to minimize variance? Or should I do it vice versa for some reason I'm not understanding?

Also, since NYG play on MNF....If the first 4 hit, would you all suggest hedging by taking the Cleveland Browns money line?

60% is sustainable.

Brag: I once went a full NBA season and ran at 61.8%.
Beat: My average bets size was 24 bucks.

Just read this entire thread...how's it coming AF?

+1.

Really good thread for a newbie like me. Even the arguments / flames added something interesting or a different perspective.

Bump, cuz it phun

Has there ever been a prop bet like the ones offered in here that actually went through? I'm not being sarcastic, I'm genuinely interested.

great read.

Brother made me read this thread because I wasn't line-shopping. LOL. Thanks G-Funk

This thread is amazing. I was so absurd.

I'm putting together a video series on sports analytics(specifically overcoming cognitive biases), and I re-read this thread to research some of my old thoughts. I apologize for the difficulties of dealing with my trollish nature, but it really did bring out some great information! In particular, these posts correctly assessed the root of my problem:



I had a huge ego. It was made worse by the undeserved career success the poker boom provided. And it increased even more when the discussion turned to sports and I latched onto the idea that my athletic experience would aid me in analysis.

My ego was a huge impediment to learning, but I think that having to overcome it has left me better able to instruct others. And I'm hopeful that I can create some good content about the process I went through to do so. Anyway, just felt like I should post something after taking this trip down memory lane. Much love to all the posters who put up with my trolls and offered such great advice!

Did hell just freeze over?

why?

to make money selling analysis because they can't make money betting it

You should look at adding BrianL to your team if he's still around.

(sorry for the super long winded reply to a one word post, I tend to ramble haha)

I've been a pro gambler for 15 years. I've had insane swings. I'm an addicted gambler. Gambling is my passion and my expertise, but its not healthy for me. Its problematic for my mental health, dating/social life, and overall life goals.

My friend Tony started the YouTube channel Panoramic Sports. He has ambitions in the world of sports media and wants to have some work completed in order to showcase himself if/when opportunities come along. Because he's tailoring to the masses with his content, he wanted to bring in some people to make content that targets more niche audiences. He invited me to be a part and I accepted.

I would love to be more involved with sports media. I've attempted 3 previous projects(PointsPerPossession.com, RotoGrinders video blogs, SCS Podcast) with limited success. My biggest stumbling block has always been putting out consistent and timely content, and I think a big reason for this is the "language barrier" between me and my audience. In the same way as all the good advice here went over my head 10 years ago, I feel as if I'm not always on the same page as my audience and we are speaking past one another. So the thought is that I will do this series on "how I think about sports" and it will help me find a niche audience that speaks the same language as me. Then when I need to churn out consistent and timely content, I can produce it without worrying about potential communication struggles.

I am not good enough to contribute to sports media in any other way. Yea I would love to do a NBA podcast....but why should anyone listen to me over Zach Lowe? Same thing with NFL and Evan Silva. I think that this series represents one area in which I actually have something unique and worthwhile to say. And with the legalization of sports betting, I think there may be a market for this type of show.

There are legitimate positive impacts on society that can be had by teaching people to correct their cognitive biases. And I think some people would be open to correcting them in a recreational setting(like sports analysis) and then applying them to a more serious setting(politics for example), whereas if you had tried to correct their cognitive biases on the serious issue then they would've resisted.

I had a losing 2017. However, 2018 has been the second best year of my gambling career with 7 six-figure scores: https://rotogrinders.com/profiles/as...s?type=biggest


Regardless please don't judge my content based upon my winrate. I think the meritocracy of the content will be it's strength, and I want the focus to be on that.

Agreed that content should stand or fall on its own. Mike Burry would be the extreme example of this, posting the best value ideas going on a free stupid msg board.

What's your ROI been 2017-18? Just curious I imagine it's pretty good with those scores. Or is just net $$$ won the metric?

My goodness. You really like to hear yourself talk, man. Has anyone ever uploaded a video to a msg board, reading off old posts that they posted in the same msg board?

Unsurprisingly, my contributions go unrequited by the people it benefited most.

I still hate nearly everyone (except RD, you guys are awesome, and I'll always be thankful you helped me build a damn good life)