Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
I'm assuming your spread bet has 50/50 chance of winning/losing.
If your bet is refunded even if you win, 3 pt dog should be the optimal play as the push frequencies losing between 1 and 5 should max out at that spread. Maybe close to 15%.
If your bet is NOT refunded if you win, then a pick em game should be the optimal play, because that offers the best push frequencies for losing between 1 and 5, that is around 12.5%.
For example, you would not take a 20 point favorite because the push frequencies for losing between 1 and 5 are very low. And if your pick wins by 1-19, you lose your bet and you get no refund.
This is solely based on EV considerations.
Thanks for the post, appreciate it.
Betting on the spread isn't allowed. So I pick a team, if they win (by any amount) I win the bet...if they lose by 1-5, I get my money refunded instead of it being a lost bet...if they lose by 6+, then I lose my bet.
There are odds though, so I can't just pick a heavy fav and get even money on the bet. So a huge fav might be -350 and the other side +300, but if my team loses by 1-5 I get refunded.
Your comment about betting on a 50/50 type of game makes a lot of sense (I can usually pick ANY NBA game that day)....that'd maximize the times I lose by 1-5 and it's a push instead of a loss. Maybe actually picking the dog is the best idea? (like a 2.5 point dog since a LOT of the times they'll lose by 1-5...aka lots of refunds...plus good odds when they do bink a win?)