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Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking

11-29-2009 , 11:21 PM
I have to give you credit in a way, as you go to an immense amount of effort to write about all sorts of sports when the cumulative effect of all of it is that you are maybe going to break even if that. Just goes to prove that efficient markets are efficient for a reason and all the write ups in the world like yours are not much different than a monkey pushing random buttons for picks in terms of results because the betting markets in these sports are relatively efficient (vs MMA for instance).

Next year go with my system. Be a Colts fan and bet on them every week to win with the moneyline. Bet on them to win their division at the start of the year when you could get 1.7 to 1 on it.

To be blunt, it`s easier and the results have been considerable better than all of your efforts combined.
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
11-30-2009 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tommy Gold
Chiefs' rushing game has rusher RB Larry Johnson who is not much of a player but you can be sure that the main offensive option for Kansas City is indeed their passing game and not the running game.
Kansas City cut Larry Johnson three weeks ago.
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
11-30-2009 , 05:47 PM
lolololol....wow
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
11-30-2009 , 06:00 PM
No excuses, crappy mistake on this one. The end result of the game clearly showed that.

Now seriously, I was just testing your attention.
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
11-30-2009 , 08:25 PM
New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

The New England Patriots are getting better as a team and for me it's one of the biggest contenders to the Super Bowl. The Patriots O is a real luxury, the team has one of the best quarterbacks ever, QB Tom Brady, who has great weapons at his disposal: WR Randy Moss, WR Wes Welker and TE Ben Watson. This means that the Pats' passing game is undoubtedly on of the best in the NFL, if not even the best! With a healthy WR Wes Welker, New England has produced much more in the offense and the connection "Tom Brady-Wes Welker" is really explosive.

Patriots' rushing game is also well served, even with the injury of RB Fred Taylor and consequent absence, the team has rushers as RB Laurence Maroney who is playing well and RB Sammy Morris, or even RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis. With these high quality rushers, the Patriots have the best quality offense in the NFL, because they have an outstanding quarterback, excellent wide receivers and great rushers.

On the defense, the Pats had some ups and downs in the past and they will have certainly some troubles defending the Saints' passing game, which itself is the best of the league this season. Despite the youth of the Pats' secondary, I consider it a very good defense when they are focused, doing a good man coverage and they can do some regular interceptions. The New England's rushing defense is not all that bad, but I think that for this game, the Patriots will give some room to the Saints in this kind of game.

The New Orleans Saints haven't lost yet on this season and they're a number one seed for the playoffs. Their offense has one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, QB Drew Brees, who is doing a great season, and he can count with WR Marques Colston, Devery Henderson WR and TE Jeremy Shockey to pass the ball, all these guys are very good players in their functions. The Saints passing game is not as strong as the Patriots, but is their best strength and QB Drew Brees loves to throw deep balls. Their rushing game is also quite good, RB Reggie Bush, RB Pierre Thomas and even RB Mike Bell are very good athletes, and the Saints can cause a lot of problems to many defenses in the NFL. Overall, have no doubts, these New Orleans Saints are an offense powerhouse.

The Saints defense started very well, but since some of the players in their secondary were injured, the team has lost a lot of quality in this area and the secondary performance has been lousy lately. The Saints D will face a great offense powerhouse too and I think they'll have huge problems to stop the Brady, Moss and Welker trio. They have been saved by their offense, which can outscore almost every team in the NFL when they feel the pressure and the Saints offense like to play with the pressure and they perform a lot more focused with that pressure.

Thanks to the absences on the Saints secondary, I believe that New Orleans will suffer their first loss in the season, because the Patriots will eat the Saints' secondary alive. On the other side, the Pats defense The key for the Pats win on this game will be their ability to deliver enough pressure on the Saints OL, doing a good man coverage on their secondary and trying to get some sacks on Drew Brews, who might have some opportunities to send his deep balls and surely the New England defense will take some damage thanks to those plays, but in the overall, I believe that the Patriots will prevail in the end and I think that we will see here again a game like the last Pats @ Colts, with huge points scored in this game and that's the reason why I also see enough in value in the over.


Pick: New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes & Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-02-2009 , 01:44 AM
Below is my Week 12 results recap:

83 - Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans: Indianapolis Colts -3.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (27-35: WIN)
84 - Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills: Miami Dolphins -3.5 +105 (2.05) The Greek (31-14: LOSS)
85 - Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams: Seattle Seahawks -3.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-27: WIN)
86 - Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers: Kansas City Chiefs +14 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (43-14: LOSS)
87 - Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans: Arizona Cardinals +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (20-17: PUSH/VOID)
88 - New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (MNF): New England Patriots ML +110 (2.10) 5Dimes (38-17: LOSS)
89 - New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints (MNF): Over 55.5 -110 (1.91) The Greek (38-17: LOSS)

SIDES: 2-3-1; TOTALS: 0-1 (Week 11: -2.14 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 44-44-1 (-3.99 units lost/88 units risked);
SIDES: 42-36 (+2.15 units won/78 units risked);
TOTALS 2-8 (-6.14 units lost/10 units risked).

Losing a total by a single half-point hurts... Will have to look back to what went wrong on the last couple of weeks... 3-7-1 on sides, awful performance. Since the end of Week 9 that I'm going downhill and this week the NFL was the black spot on a week that had a +24 units of profit on NBA, NCAAB and NHL... :s
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-02-2009 , 10:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
I have to give you credit in a way, as you go to an immense amount of effort to write about all sorts of sports when the cumulative effect of all of it is that you are maybe going to break even if that. Just goes to prove that efficient markets are efficient for a reason and all the write ups in the world like yours are not much different than a monkey pushing random buttons for picks in terms of results because the betting markets in these sports are relatively efficient (vs MMA for instance).
Many thanks for the input, Monteroy.

Markets might be or might not be efficient, depending of the circunstances. However, one needs a decent size sample of bets before going to ascertain if he has or has not an edge over the market. That's what picks records are for.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
Next year go with my system. Be a Colts fan and bet on them every week to win with the moneyline. Bet on them to win their division at the start of the year when you could get 1.7 to 1 on it.

To be blunt, it`s easier and the results have been considerable better than all of your efforts combined.

Your system only works as long as any play you make as odds value edge and there are a lot of moneylines that simply haven't no edge at all thanks to the vig.
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-06-2009 , 02:12 AM
NFL 2009 Week 13, 9 point spreads to risk:

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Denver Broncos -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Oakland Raiders +15 -110 (1.91) The Greek

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins: New Orleans Saints -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears -9 -110 (1.91) The Greek

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: New England Patriots -3 -125 (1.80) Bet Jamaica

San Diego Chargers vs Cleveland Browns: San Diego Chargers -13.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF): Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF): Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-06-2009 , 01:09 PM
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: the oddsmakers do not know what to do about this game, so they opened the lines with a PK on each side and let the market work. The Jaguars are 6-5 this season and currently have one foot in the last wild card that gives access to the playoffs, but with Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the footsteps, I doubt they can keep this lead...

However, the motivation for this game should be enough to start with a win a series of 3 home games. And knowing that they receive after the Texans, Miami and Indianapolis in the next few weeks, imagine the moral boost of facing the Colts with a 7-5 record?

Houston has lost the last game and is a team with low morale, because the losses always cost in emotional terms, but can still mathematically reach the last spot of the playoffs, the problem is going to do 3 road games and two of them quite complicated, against Jaguars and Dolphins. Knowing that they play much better away from home, were my first choice, but after reviewing the other factors, I think it is wiser to stay out, because these Texans in the moment of truth have failed...


Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons: Without QB Matt Ryan, the Falcons had a FG advantage in the opening lines, courtesy of the oddsmakers. The Eagles on the road have acted with a bit lower than expected and on the last 4 games only managed to win 2 of them ... The prioblem is that the Falcons are not is good shape either and perhaps this is a good match for an Under, because both teams in the rushing game will have their best players sitting out on the sidelines. However, one never knows how the Falcons passing game will really work on this game, so I'd rather stay out of this game.


Detroit Lions @ Cincinnati Bengals: I will not play the Lions with Stafford having that arm injury not fully recovered. Going against Detroit -13 against a team as good on the offense like the Bengals are is always a snack, the problem is that these Bengals only played their best game against the best teams on the league.

Against the Bears, who are in the same division of the Lions, Cincy won big, but on the last game against the Browns, division rivals, they played just the minimum required to win the game and that has been almost the norm when the Bengals face lowly teams. In theory, Lions +13 would be a good pick, but the circumstances of the injury on the arm of Stafford, force me to leave this game aside.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: it's curious to see Bucs +6 going to Bucs +4, but that is explained because if I'm not wrong, Panthers' QB will be out for this game game and therefore, it is complicated to have a good read on the Panthers. Tampa Bay is a very weak team and perhaps, the best pick for this game is the Under 40. Were not the fact that I do not know very well these two teams and that I've already too many plays for this week and maybe I could take that risk ... The problem is that Tampa Bay can score always a few points per game, ranging between 14 and 21 points, and sometimes games between low scoring teams can open up and we end up with an over... Many unknowns to take risks that I find unnecessary ...
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-06-2009 , 04:37 PM
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF)

QB Kurt Warner is an experienced quarterback and despite being questionable for tonight, I think he will be on the starting lineup. On the passing game, he has WR Larry Fitzgerald (75 receptions and 11 TD), Warner's "best friend" and WR Anquan Boldin (56 rec/2 TD), 2 good wide receivers that any defense in the NFL has to be very careful to not give them too much room. WR Steve Breaston was also used this season and he has some nice numbers, 43 receptions and 3 TD, so we can really say that Arizona's passing game is one of the best in the NFL.

Cardinals' rushing game is now improved, rookie RB Beanie Wells has already scored 4 TD and he is a nice addiction for the team, which has shown a very strong running game in their last games and are now more balanced offense. RB Tim Hightower has some health problems but he might seeing him too on this game, if not as a rusher, at least a tight-end, to give the Cards some options on the short passing game. Yet, the running game is the weak spot of the Cardinals and Minny D has the edge on this one.

Arizona's defense does better against the running game than against the passing game, yet this might not be enough when you face the best rusher of the NFL. However, Cards D is able to deliver a lot of pressure on the opposite side and their passing defense is not that bad either, but they have their moments, sometimes they play very good, sometimes they don't and at home, they usually do not play that well and against the Vikings that can be deadly.

Minnesota defense is a very good and aggressive unit, one of the mainstays of this team in the past, but their secondary has been untested on the last weeks and they faced good offensive teams like the Steelers, the Packers or even the Ravens, they suffered a lot of points. For those who want to go for the Over, this might be a good angle, but for me that line is a bit too high thanks to Arizona's inconsistency.

On the offense, they have QB Brett Favre, who has been very good this season, he has not taken many chances and he has suffered very few interceptions because on this season he has done a very good management on his passing calls and he has taken advantage of the powerful rushing game at his disposal. QB Favre improved the Vikings passing game and with the best rusher of the NFL, RB Adrian Peterson (a player that is practically impossible to stop and even when he is stopped, he has far better numbers than any good rusher in the NFL, which makes him a key player on the Vikes O), the Minny O is quite strong and deadly to their opponents' defenses.

On the passing game, WR Bernard Berrian (38 rec/4 TD) has not been used that much this season, unlike WR Percy Harvin (42 rec/5TD) or WR Sidney Rice (56 rec/4 TD), who account for almost a mile in the passing game. Yet, when we look at the numbers of Adrian Peterson, we see that this team is very well balanced in terms of scoring touchdowns by the ground or by the air.

Both defenses will have problems when facing the opponents' passing game, but when the ball is carried by a rusher, the edge goes for the Purps, on both sides of the game, offense and defense. Minnesota has been much more consistent this season, despite having faced lower opponents lately while Arizona had a much tougher opposition. For me, knowing how unreliable the Cards have been at home, I'll have to give the Vikes the edge and I expect them to win this game by at least 1 touchdown or more. No matter the end result, ladies and gents, please enjoy the game!!!


Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-07-2009 , 06:31 PM
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF)

Since their Bye Week on Week 7, the Baltimore Ravens (6-5) have improved their game and are now in the run for a spot on the wild card race for the playoffs and aside of the Browns, they had faced very difficult teams like the Colts at home or the Bengals on the road. On the other hand, the Green Bay Packers after their Bye Week on Week 5 only lost 2 games, at home against the Vikings and on the road, against the Bucs.

Baltimore offense has sophomore a good QB Joe Flacco leading the team on the offense and he usually bids his time inside the pocket to make the best calls. However, this Baltimore team lately has not scored too many points, which is a trend to take in account for those who might consider the Under 43. On the passing game, the Ravens have WR Derrick Mason has Flacco's main target and he his the best wide receiver of the team. The TE Todd Heap is also very used and after these two, we have also Mark Clayton and Kelley Washington who are seldom used. On the running game, Baltimore main rusher is RB Ray Rice, who also is used sometimes as a wide receiver, and RB Willis McGahee, both are good options for the Ravens ground offense and both have 6 TD scored each.

On the defense, Baltimore has improved a lot their passing defense, and that is a good thing for tonight. The Ravens' secondary is one of the best in the NFL and they should do again a nice job like they've done lately. Against the rush, Baltimore has done greatly and since the Packers play much better on the passing game than on the ground offense, we should not expect to see Green Bay doing much more on the ground.

Green Bay defense is also very aggressive, and they have done well against the rushing game and the passing game, but against good offensive teams, they've suffered a lot of points. The Ravens offense is not a very prolific one, but they have been able to do balanced offense and their passing defense has not been the best. The running defense has been quite better, however Baltimore has good options on their running game and the Packers D will have some problems today.

The Packers passing game has a good QB Aaron Rodgers in great shape and with good options for the Wide Receivers positions, WR Greg Jennings and WR Donald Driver, have been great lately and his Tight-Ends TE Donald Lee and Jermichael Finley aren't that bad either. They will face today a great defense tonight and their running game is solely based on Ryan Grant, who has nice numbers for this season, but he should not do greatly tonight.

Despite the good performance of the Green Bay passing game on their last games and they have the edge on the number of rest days, yet the Baltimore D is very seasoned and they always give their best and we count on them for a close win by at least on FG.


Pick: Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-07-2009 , 08:24 PM
Tommy, as always, gotta hand it to you for the write-ups you put out. Tonight though I'm going against you on this one. I like Green Bay at home in this situation. Baltimore looks like they are having injury troubles so their famous defense will not be up to the challenge. Ed Reed is great but he is Questionable on the game tonight, and that is going to be trouble for the Ravens against the Green Bay air attack. Suggs of course is still out. Flacco, Ray Lewis, and McClain are all probable, but are they going to be 100% on this road game tonight? Who knows. But with all those injury troubles plus the way the Ravens have been playing as of late, I'm not really sold that they are playoff caliber this season. I believe that Green Bay is the better team tonight and they should give a win to the fans at Green Bay tonight. I'm eating the chalk and taking Green Bay -3 (buying the half point).
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-07-2009 , 08:57 PM
Many thanks, misosouper.

Your angle is a very good one to exploit.
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-07-2009 , 09:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tommy Gold
Many thanks for the input, Monteroy.

Markets might be or might not be efficient, depending of the circunstances. However, one needs a decent size sample of bets before going to ascertain if he has or has not an edge over the market. That's what picks records are for.
But your analysis have not shown any indication of showing any value, and your results pretty much confirm that. Not saying you are not a nice guy, and you are clearly a sports fan, but the markets are too powerful for you to show any real edges with the type of write ups you are doing.

As a hobby, sure why not, but where do you think you add value in terms of information that will make you beat the market and the inherent costs associated with it. Your write ups may be entertaining and show you research the sport (granted I have not read much of them), but lots do this. Where is your value?





Quote:
Originally Posted by Tommy Gold
Your system only works as long as any play you make as odds value edge and there are a lot of moneylines that simply haven't no edge at all thanks to the vig.
My system works fine, it's a way to have a little fun betting on the team I root for. I do not pretend it is a +EV system (Colts going 12-0 notwithstanding) and I know you are being a bit tongue in cheek on this, but my main point still remains.


People who think they offer information of value are a dime a dozen as can be seen by all the people just like you who seem to spam this board. Explain to me how you are actually different and how that difference will pan out long term. You seem to pretty much be a 50-50 guy which is what anyone will be long term with the spread.
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-08-2009 , 01:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tommy Gold
Many thanks, misosouper.

Your angle is a very good one to exploit.
Hey man, I just gave my opinion. How do you like them apples?
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-12-2009 , 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
But your analysis have not shown any indication of showing any value, and your results pretty much confirm that. Not saying you are not a nice guy, and you are clearly a sports fan, but the markets are too powerful for you to show any real edges with the type of write ups you are doing.

As a hobby, sure why not, but where do you think you add value in terms of information that will make you beat the market and the inherent costs associated with it. Your write ups may be entertaining and show you research the sport (granted I have not read much of them), but lots do this. Where is your value?
So far, overall, I only some value on NBA for obvious reasons. On NHL I might have some value too on PL and dogs ML, but I'll only know better in the end of the season, so far the overall data sample is still too small to say clearly that I have or I haven't an edge.

On MLB, last season, had a nice performance since 20th April to mid August (on moneylines and run lines), but after and before, just forget it... So, with or without writeups, I've some evidence that I've some edges on the sports betting markets, yet the only way to make sure that is true is to draw a bigger data sample than the current one.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
My system works fine, it's a way to have a little fun betting on the team I root for. I do not pretend it is a +EV system (Colts going 12-0 notwithstanding) and I know you are being a bit tongue in cheek on this, but my main point still remains.


People who think they offer information of value are a dime a dozen as can be seen by all the people just like you who seem to spam this board. Explain to me how you are actually different and how that difference will pan out long term. You seem to pretty much be a 50-50 guy which is what anyone will be long term with the spread.
Like I said, for now I'm just keeping an updated record of my "activities" and when the data sample is large enough to be meaningful, then you can do a detailed analysis and see where I've an edge and where I don't have an edge. And in the next season, you know better where to focus your efforts. Simple.
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-12-2009 , 06:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tommy Gold
So far, overall, I only some value on NBA for obvious reasons. On NHL I might have some value too on PL and dogs ML, but I'll only know better in the end of the season, so far the overall data sample is still too small to say clearly that I have or I haven't an edge.

On MLB, last season, had a nice performance since 20th April to mid August (on moneylines and run lines), but after and before, just forget it... So, with or without writeups, I've some evidence that I've some edges on the sports betting markets, yet the only way to make sure that is true is to draw a bigger data sample than the current one.
With all due respect (as you seem a fairly decent guy), none of your results show anything outside a reasonable results range (say 1 std deviation) of using random guessing.

You are not explaining how the pricing of lines are inefficient (as some do in MMA and then one sees that the lines do change to offer arbitrage opportunities). You are not using sports books with bonuses to create arb spots.

You are a sports fan who likes following sports, but the very efficient NFL/NBA/MLB lines account for all of you armchair guys when they set their lines.

I appreciate you enjoy doing this as a hobby or adventure and go for it in that regard, but you still have not explained in any way why you have an edge over these betting markets.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Tommy Gold
Like I said, for now I'm just keeping an updated record of my "activities" and when the data sample is large enough to be meaningful, then you can do a detailed analysis and see where I've an edge and where I don't have an edge. And in the next season, you know better where to focus your efforts. Simple.
Honestly, next year I will bet MMA from Performy's picks and bet $20-50 on the Colts every week to win for fun like I did this year. No offense, but my results have been better than yours following those systems (more Performy's :P). I know how he gets his edge. I don't see how you get yours.
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-12-2009 , 09:59 PM
NFL 2009, Week 14, 4 point spreads and 3 totals:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 36.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Green Bay Packers -3.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek

San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (SNF): Under 44 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek



Below is my Week 13 results recap:

90 - Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs: Denver Broncos -6 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (13-44: WIN)
91 - Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Oakland Raiders +15 -110 (1.91) The Greek (24-27: WIN)
92 - Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Tennessee Titans +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-17: LOSS)
93 - New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins: New Orleans Saints -9.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (30-33 OT: LOSS)
94 - St. Louis Rams @ Chicago Bears: Chicago Bears -9 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-9: LOSS)
95 - New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins: New England Patriots -3 -125 (1.80) Bet Jamaica (22-21: LOSS)
96 - San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns: San Diego Chargers -13.5 -105 (1.95) The Greek (23-30: LOSS)
97 - Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (SNF): Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 (1.83) Bookmaker (30-17: LOSS)
98 - Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers (MNF): Baltimore Ravens +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-14: LOSS)

SIDES: 2-7; (Week 13: -5.18 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 46-51-1 (-9.17 units lost/97 units risked);
SIDES: 44-43 (-3.03 units won/87 units risked);
TOTALS 2-8 (-6.14 units lost/10 units risked).
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-12-2009 , 11:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monteroy
With all due respect (as you seem a fairly decent guy), none of your results show anything outside a reasonable results range (say 1 std deviation) of using random guessing.

You are not explaining how the pricing of lines are inefficient (as some do in MMA and then one sees that the lines do change to offer arbitrage opportunities). You are not using sports books with bonuses to create arb spots.

You are a sports fan who likes following sports, but the very efficient NFL/NBA/MLB lines account for all of you armchair guys when they set their lines.

I appreciate you enjoy doing this as a hobby or adventure and go for it in that regard, but you still have not explained in any way why you have an edge over these betting markets.

(...) I don't see how you get yours.


Like I said on the previous reply, I know I've an edge on MLB on moneylines and run lines during a certain period. When football starts, my edge on that league simply vanished last season, but with a true edge higher than 5% after 600 bets, I will not care about the rest of the MLB 2010 season after 2010.08.15. I've done more than 1000 bets on that market and I know where and when I've an edge.

And I used the same process I'm using now for NHL, NBA or NCAAB. NFL is a complete different animal, because you have very few games per season to risk. When I reach the first 1000 bets for NHL or NBA or NCAAB, or the regular season ends, whichever comes first, I'll know in which markets I'm stronger.

Right now, I know that NBA is showing some edge after the first month and NHL has been nice on Puck Lines and dogs ML. But only with a bigger sample I can be sure when I should start or end and where I should risk, knowing that I do better on those markets (picking my spots).


If you want to know how I handicap the games, how I keep record of my lines and all that stuff, that is a matter that I won't discuss on this thread.
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-14-2009 , 07:40 PM
Yesterday finished with a 4-2, 2-1 on pointspreads and 2-1 on totals.


Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers

The Niners have a good defense and their offense is also quite good, but despite playing at home tonight, they've had consistently lose all their important games against stronger teams during the current season by a 6/7 pts margin.

I don't expect them to win tonight against an Arizona team that leads their division and that has managed to win their games on the road and the Cards are showing a nice improvement on their last games too.

I think that the Cardinals offense has an edge for this game and they have enough quality to win this game by at least by a touchdown.


Pick: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-18-2009 , 02:34 AM
First pick for NFL 2009, Week 15:

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-19-2009 , 01:13 AM
NFL 2009, Week 15, 5 spreads and 2 totals:

Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Cleveland Browns ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek

Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens: Under 40 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

I might still have something for the SNF and the MNF...



Below is my Week 14 results recap:

Cincinnati Bengals @ Minnesota Vikings: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (30-10: LOSS)
New York Jets @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 36.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (3-26: WIN)
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (10-16: WIN)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears: Green Bay Packers -3.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek (14-21: WIN)
San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: San Diego Chargers +3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-20: WIN)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (SNF): Under 44 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (38-45: LOSS)
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers: Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (1.80) The Greek (24-9: LOSS)

SIDES: 2-2; TOTALS: 2-1 (Week 14: +0.6 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 50-54-1 (-8.57 units lost/104 units risked);
SIDES: 46-45 (-3.25 units won/91 units risked);
TOTALS 4-9 (-5.32 units lost/13 units risked).
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-24-2009 , 02:21 AM
NFL 2009 Week 16 first pick:

San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers +3 -110 (1.91) The Greek & San Diego Chargers ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes


Below is my Week 15 results recap:

106 - Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints -7.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (17-24: LOSS)
107 - Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans: Tennessee Titans -3.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (27-24 OT: LOSS)
108 - Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Cleveland Browns ML +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (34-41: WIN)
109 - Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Under 37 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (34-41: LOSS)
110 - Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Green Bay Packers ML +115 (2.15) The Greek (37-36: LOSS)
111 - Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens: Under 40 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (31-7: WIN)
112 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (7-24: LOSS)

SIDES: 1-4; TOTALS: 1-1 (Week 14: -2.09 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 52-59-1 (-12.56 units lost/111 units risked);
SPREADS: 46-47-1 (-6.25 units lost/93 units risked);
TOTALS: 5-10 (-5.41 units lost/15 units risked);
ML: 1-2 (-0.9 units lost/3 units risked).
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-26-2009 , 12:48 AM
NFL 2009 Week 16, final 12 picks:

Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders +3 +105 (2.05) The Greek & Oakland Raiders ML +150 (2.50) Bookmaker & Under 38 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica

Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons
: Buffalo Bills +9.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek

Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek & Houston Texans ML +125 (2.25) Bookmaker

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica & Baltimore Ravens & ML +130 (2.30) The Greek

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (SNF): Washington Redskins +7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MNF): Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote
12-30-2009 , 01:45 AM
Below is my Week 16 results recap:

113 - San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers +3 -110 (1.91) The Greek (17-42: WIN)
114 - San Diego Chargers @ Tennessee Titans: San Diego Chargers ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes (17-42: WIN)
115 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders +3 +105 (2.05) The Greek (23-9: LOSS)
116 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Oakland Raiders ML +150 (2.50) Bookmaker (23-9: LOSS)
117 - Oakland Raiders @ Cleveland Browns: Under 38 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (23-9: WIN)
118 - Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals: Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 -110 (1.91) Bet Jamaica (17-10: WIN)
119 - Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons: Buffalo Bills +9.5 -115 (1.87) The Greek (31-3: LOSS)
120 - Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans +3 -120 (1.83) The Greek (20-27: WIN)
121 - Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins: Houston Texans ML +125 (2.25) Bookmaker (20-27: WIN)
122 - Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens +3 -115 (1.87) Bet Jamaica (23-20: PUSH/VOID)
123 - Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Baltimore Ravens ML +130 (2.30) The Greek (23-20: LOSS)
124 - New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts -5.5 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (15-29: LOSS)
125 - Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins (SNF): Washington Redskins +7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (0-17: LOSS)
126 - Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (MNF): Minnesota Vikings -7 -105 (1.95) Bet Jamaica (36-30 OT: LOSS)

SIDES: 5-7-1; TOTALS: 1-0 (Week 16: -0.79 units);

NFL 2009 Season record: 58-66-2 (-13.35 units lost/124 units risked);
SPREADS: 49-52-2 (-8.6 units lost/93 units risked);
TOTALS: 6-10 (-4.5 units lost/16 units risked);
ML: 3-4 (-0.25 units lost/7 units risked).

Have to recognize my shortcomings when it comes to SNF and MNF games...

9-18 (0-6 on the last 4 weeks) and -9.85 units lost is not a great calling card...

Was doing great until Week 10, since Week 11 it was always downhill rock bottom... :|
Tommy Gold NFL 2009 - Picks Tracking Quote

      
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