The TomG Spectacular AKA TomG Total Baskets - Sports Betting

I dedicate the title of this thread to The Shakes Spectacular whose NBA player props system were the first forum plays I ever followed (true story).

In this thread we'll be betting NBA player props with a preference towards unders and plus odds (Shakes style).

Quote

10-30-2012 , 01:23 PM

B00T

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,246

Quote:

you will post your picks in the thread dedicated to that sport. You are not going to get your own thread for your picks. It is not the purpose of this forum.

Quote

10-30-2012 , 02:09 PM

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,460

Very cool. I was a big NBA fan in the 80's and 90's, and then got tired of the league and stopped following it. As a result I'm probably not ideally positioned to bet without really getting back into the sport.

It's my understanding that a lot of this is just based on individual matchups, and perhaps how teams play out the last few minutes of the game. Is that primarily how you'll be looking for your value (without getting too technical about your system)? Id assume that a players average strongly influences the line, and if the books don't account for a particular defensive assignment, perhaps that's where the value is?

Quote

10-30-2012 , 02:52 PM

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,298

For simplicity, all plays are 1u base (to win 1u for favs and risking 1u for dogs). All lines taken from Pinny for now. It doesn't look like Pinny is going to put up props for most games so I may have to switch over to BOL (30c lines), Greek (30c plus $200 limits), or 5D (30c plus rec). I'd like to use a single book for

Rondo Pts u15.0 -110
Rondo Asts u11.5 -101
James Pts u26.5 +113

Quote

10-30-2012 , 05:07 PM

popbottle

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 78

Quote

10-30-2012 , 05:33 PM

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,460

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sammot

Why do you think its us vs them? This is touched on repeatedly in many of the threads linked in the FAQ and gets to the heart of why people don't help each other. (All the poker players who're currently looking for jobs probably look back on their efforts to help others with bemusement.)

Yes the Sharps v Squares thing does make sense to me. Thanks for the reminder.

Quote

10-30-2012 , 05:52 PM

mrmacblazen

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 382

i think most in this forum fall into the category of "sharp" squares. lol. i never understood the whole sharp/square other than peeps make plus ev bets vs. neg ev.

Quote

10-30-2012 , 07:21 PM

n00b590

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 978

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

I'd like to use a single book

sharp as fk

Quote

10-30-2012 , 07:34 PM

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,897

i'm gonna hold off and see if tomg is trolling or not.

leosquint.jpg

Quote

10-30-2012 , 08:11 PM

#10

MicroBob

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 61,575

Quote:

You will post your picks in your own thread here due to your better-than-average start and premise. You are not going to post this stuff in a different thread. This is the purpose of the forum. Rock on and thanks for the content.

Quote

10-30-2012 , 08:30 PM

#11

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,460

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sammot

If that makes sense to you, you have missed the entire point. It is you v everyone else.

You certainly give me ample reason to want to stop posting in this section.

Quote

10-30-2012 , 08:36 PM

#12

B00T

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 5,246

Quote:

Originally Posted by rafiki

You certainly give me ample reason to want to stop posting in this section.

Quote

10-30-2012 , 10:03 PM

#13

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 40,460

Quote:

Originally Posted by B00T

I'll stick to the 3+1 since it's fun. Regs gonna reg, you get to keep your club.

Quote

10-30-2012 , 10:23 PM

#14

HolidayInTheSun

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,302

Quote

10-30-2012 , 10:50 PM

#15

Donkson

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,583

Quote

10-30-2012 , 11:41 PM

#16

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

Rondo Pts u15.0 -110
Rondo Asts u11.5 -101
James Pts u26.5 +113

Daily: 1-2, 3.11u risked, -0.98u, -31.5% ROI

Need to make some adjustments.

Quote

10-31-2012 , 12:12 PM

#17

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,298

I didn't watch the game but I read afterward that LeBron left early due to leg cramps. So it might appear we got really lucky but remember Shakes Theory:

Quote:

Another reason is the basic statistical prop bet rule which is that the player must play for there to be action. Notice that it merely says that the player must play. It doesn't say that he must start or play the entire game. It doesn't even matter if he plays for 30 seconds and then gets injured. It doesn't matter if a quarterback plays for the first half, sucks the whole time, and then gets benched. There's still action. It's unlike the rule for betting the full game where the game must go near the full length.

So that was a pretty good application of Shakes Theory.

Also we bet all unders in the highest scoring game on the board with Rondo going 43 mins (the highest MP of the night) and we only lost 1u so not bad considering the circumstances.

Quote

10-31-2012 , 12:57 PM

#18

n00b590

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 978

Call me crazy but I'd even consider it a mental victory.

Quote

10-31-2012 , 02:10 PM

#19

HolidayInTheSun

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,302

Quote

10-31-2012 , 09:54 PM

#20

Lavon Affair

banned

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 537

careful betting unders, pace and FG% should be higher from last years strike compressed season.

Quote

10-31-2012 , 10:10 PM

#21

Poogs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 4,501

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lavon Affair

careful betting unders, pace and FG% should be higher from last years strike compressed season.

Heard harablo talking about this today. Very interesting.

Quote

11-01-2012 , 10:28 AM

#22

sbecks

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 448

Quote:

Originally Posted by Poogs

Heard harablo talking about this today. Very interesting.

that's very cool of bob to offer his insight - it's us against the books and we need to work as a team to win max units.

Quote

11-02-2012 , 05:04 AM

#23

shaunhill352

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 4

Why would OP give away his rice bowl?

Quote

11-02-2012 , 11:31 AM

#24

'kljhg

banned

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 3,398

well 59.32% of total points props (n=5023 from pinny) went over last year so maybe like 90% will go over this yeare!!!

68.4% total assists under (n=1239)

60.93% total rebounds under (n=1708)

Quote

11-02-2012 , 12:17 PM

#25

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,298

Some good info guys I am working hard to improve some of the parts of this system. This will also allow for a "burn in period" (very common technique in advanced MCMC modeling) and I may try watching a game or two (HBob literally watches every game). One thing I've learned is that successful betting is about carefully gathering information and considering all options, not trying to rush into something. It is a full 82 games this year we can afford to wait a bit. Back soon.

Quote

Page 1 of 4

First

1 2 3 4

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 1 of 4

First

1 2 3 4

Last