So one of the sports books I'm using occasionally does promos, and this time it's doing a promo where if the fighter you pick loses by TKO, you get your bet refunded instead of losing it. Everything else is the same (normal line, normal vig, etc.)

Question: Does this automatically make the bet +EV assuming I pick a random fighter and a random fight? I tried to look up what % of mma fights were TKO, but I couldn't find the answer.

edited to add: All the numbers I've found combine TKO with KO...I "think" I only get the refund on a TKO loss which is why I can't find the numbers.

dont have ur answer, but i bet the numbers are combined because tko/ko result is often seemingly so randomized its hilarious.

ive watched fights where the guy is 95% out, basically lying there near unconscious eating shots, and its called as a TKO. others where its been a flash knockdown and he takes a couple hammerfists and the ref jumps in, fighter starts to stand up (in much better shape than TKO guy) and its called a KO. lul.

Assuming it’s KO/TKO, it should be profitable to bet every underdog. Even the worst finishers/wrestlers have an outside chance at a KO. I suppose you could avoid any fights involving those type of fighters, but I don’t see any on this card.

About half of fights go to decision, half finish ITD. Subsmission to KO/TKO has been trending to more submissions but roughly 50:50 last I looked at the data. The higher the weight class the more likely the fight is to end with a knockout. Men knockout each other more than women. I would just pick a heavyweight fight and a good fighter at around (or better than) market price and enjoy the sweat. 5 rounds > 3 rounds IMO.

ETA: Just reread the post and realized it doesn’t include KO. This being the case I would go lighter weight class with guys who like to ground and pound. It definitely moves the needle in your favor as far as being +EV. But getting a good market price is the main determinate of value.

Thanks for the post man, appreciate it

I didn't even consider the 3 vs. 5 round aspect, I bet you're 100% right...5 round fights probably have more TKO/KOs % wise.

yaaaaa.....but they might have lines with huge juice , like -120/-120 or so ...compare to pinnacle with a -107/-107 format.


and they might have many conditions written in small characters like for exemple

* they only refund the first 10$ of ur bet

* they refund in free bet not in real money , so it worth half of ur money.

* if u accept the refund, u have to gamble 10x the amount of the refund b4 u can cashout any money

-jpp

What would make the most sense ROI wise is to pick chinny guys with good offense and/or grapplers to win fights where if they lose it's likely by TKO to a striker