Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-01-2021, 10:26 PM   #26
TheHip41
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
TheHip41's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 26,934
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Toronto won

Suck it fish
TheHip41 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 11:52 AM   #27
VeniceMerchant
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 303
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
Like I said I have successfully bet baseball for decades. I was one of the most active regulars in this forum back when it first started. We had more than a few very good discussions back in the day.

But no skin off of my balls. I haven't posted here in years and can easily continue not posting here for years. Good luck to you all! I like intelligent discussion and it appears there will be none here.
Extraordinary claims like this require evidence.

Like someone else said, your OP does seem pretty square. You refer to ERA as if it's a valid stat to be using for sportsbetting. However, by far the most square thing of all was acting like Ryu is in the same stratosphere as Cole.

Post all of your picks in here for the season, and I'd be confident in saying that you are going to be -EV.
VeniceMerchant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 12:00 PM   #28
VeniceMerchant
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 303
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by rabbitcoin View Post
You mentioned that you think TOR vs NYY is "basically a coin flip", implying that you think the fair line on TOR should be around +100; thus you gladly took the +160 odds on TOR. If you are willing to, please include what you have determined as the fair line for all bets you post. I take a strict quantitative approach myself and thus am always curious what someone has determined the fair line of a matchup to be.
My model considered the game about a 41% chance for the Jays to win. However, that's a far cry from calling this a 50-50 flip.

Not to mention OP is using lol factors like Cole losing once to the Jays in last year's 60 game season and Ryu being 2-0 vs the Yanks. He actually asked non ironically if Cole is that much better than Ryu!

Ryu fWAR since 2018 = 8.6
Cole fWAR since 2018 = 16.7

Ryu certainly is no slouch, but the Jays have a LOT of question marks this year:

Starting pitching
Middle relief
(closer just lost for season)
Catching, especially offensive side
VeniceMerchant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 12:06 PM   #29
VeniceMerchant
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 303
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
Without to far into the weeds I will try to explain my process. First I just do a baseline based off of team a winning % versus team b winning %. This is the base that I weigh heaviest and then will add in other factors to calculate my final line.

The base formula is:
A = Team A wining %
B = Team B winning %
A*(1-B)/[A*(1-B)++B*(1-A)]
This gives the percentage that team A will beat team B which can easily be converted into a moneyline.

I also run similar calculations based on team records when starters A or B start. I will factor in road vs home (although I find this mostly meaningless) and handedness. Meaning does one team over or underperform against the handedness of the starting pitcher. I find most pitcher vs. batter stats samples to be too small but will peruse them.

Once I do all of this stuff I come up with what I expect the fair line to be. Sometimes it's right on and sometimes it's way off. When it is way off I bet it.

Sorry, but strategy is terrible for the following reasons:

1) strength of schedule is always different for each team. a .600% team in a soft division probably isn't better than a .495 team in a strong division

2) road vs. home team advantage is very much a valid stat here

There's no way a strategy that weighs heavily on relative win % would do anything but hemmorage money to the books.
VeniceMerchant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 01:19 PM   #30
DuckMe
centurion
 
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 119
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by VeniceMerchant View Post
My model considered the game about a 41% chance for the Jays to win. However, that's a far cry from calling this a 50-50 flip.

Not to mention OP is using lol factors like Cole losing once to the Jays in last year's 60 game season and Ryu being 2-0 vs the Yanks. He actually asked non ironically if Cole is that much better than Ryu!

Ryu fWAR since 2018 = 8.6
Cole fWAR since 2018 = 16.7

Ryu certainly is no slouch, but the Jays have a LOT of question marks this year:

Starting pitching
Middle relief
(closer just lost for season)
Catching, especially offensive side
I had asked some questions on that game too, mainly in regards to the heinous "is Cole really that much better than Ryu" statement and got no answer. Comes here asking to talk about baseball and his picks, only engages with people who shittalk him.

*sigh*
DuckMe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 01:29 PM   #31
stoffmakers
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,114
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

where are today's bets at after 2-3 day where assuming 1 unit per play -0.76 units despite pulling out yanks and brewers in extras lol
stoffmakers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 02:14 PM   #32
VeniceMerchant
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 303
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

2-3 is a nothing sample size. The bigger issue here is that OP is pretending to be a longterm winner at baseball which ofc is 100% in his imagination.
VeniceMerchant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 03:15 PM   #33
stoffmakers
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,114
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by VeniceMerchant View Post
2-3 is a nothing sample size. The bigger issue here is that OP is pretending to be a longterm winner at baseball which ofc is 100% in his imagination.
clearly the troll attempt went over you're head, it was more about how he's disappeared after everyone calling him out and him having a losing day right off the bat
stoffmakers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 04:20 PM   #34
mrbaseball
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mrbaseball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: shortstacked on the bubble
Posts: 11,941
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by stoffmakers View Post
clearly the troll attempt went over you're head, it was more about how he's disappeared after everyone calling him out and him having a losing day right off the bat
This forum is pretty horrible so I won't be posting much if at all. Just was hoping to have some intelligent baseball wagering discussion but I can see that isn't going to happen. Years ago when this forum first opened I would write up detailed game analysis a couple of times a week. It often lead to interesting and informative discussions. I can see that isn't gonna to happen now. Life is too short!
mrbaseball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 05:10 PM   #35
stoffmakers
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,114
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
This forum is pretty horrible so I won't be posting much if at all. Just was hoping to have some intelligent baseball wagering discussion but I can see that isn't going to happen. Years ago when this forum first opened I would write up detailed game analysis a couple of times a week. It often lead to interesting and informative discussions. I can see that isn't gonna to happen now. Life is too short!
well when you start off with claims like Ryu = Cole so the game is a flip, I'm not rly sure what u expect to happen, adieu!
stoffmakers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 06:44 PM   #36
VeniceMerchant
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 303
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by stoffmakers View Post
clearly the troll attempt went over you're head, it was more about how he's disappeared after everyone calling him out and him having a losing day right off the bat
your*

but yeah, it did.
VeniceMerchant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-02-2021, 06:51 PM   #37
VeniceMerchant
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 303
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Quote:
Originally Posted by mrbaseball View Post
This forum is pretty horrible so I won't be posting much if at all. Just was hoping to have some intelligent baseball wagering discussion but I can see that isn't going to happen. Years ago when this forum first opened I would write up detailed game analysis a couple of times a week. It often lead to interesting and informative discussions. I can see that isn't gonna to happen now. Life is too short!
Truthfully, if you are going to be a part of intelligent baseball conversation, it's going to involve an intelligent baseball person explaining things to you.

You've basically shown that your knowledge of sports betting is at a beginner level, yet you tried to portray yourself here as a long-term pro.

If you're serious about learning how to beat baseball, head on Google Scholar and search predictive analytics for sports betting. There are hundreds of smart University students that create pretty advanced models and beat MLB and other sports for modest or sometimes impressive ROI's.

Personally, I've easily read 100. Not a single one of them would ever suggest that win % vs win % could ever beat any book in existance. I know you don't want to hear any of this. Just be sure not to bet money you're not totally ok with losing.
VeniceMerchant is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-04-2021, 01:19 PM   #38
VeniceMerchant
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2020
Posts: 303
Re: Thoughts and theories on baseball betting

Hey Mrbaseball, what bets are you looking at today?

San Diego’s price of -199 today is free money since they’re 3-0 for a 100% win rate. Our bet only needs to win 66.9% to breakeven.
VeniceMerchant is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:46 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive