Hi all,
I have a sports betting theory question. I bet at low enough limits and lose enough money to be regularly offered various promotions and odds boosts at several online sites. I have a question about whether I am approaching these offers from a theoretically sound perspective or if I'm making sucker's bets when I think I'm being +EV.
The bulk of these offers are 2 or 3 leg parlays, i.e. something like Sharks +1.5/Avalanche -1.5 @ +275.
I attempt to determine which of these offers are worth betting on by:
1) ~30 or so minutes before the first leg of one of these boosted offers begins, I input the Pinnacle odds into this no-vig calculator to determine the no-vig probabilities of each leg hitting.
https://sportsbettingsites.org/betti...ig-calculator/
2) I use basic multiplication to calculate the combined probabilities of all legs hitting
3) I use the below Kelly Calculator to determine the appropriate bet size giving the probability of the parlay hitting and the size of my bankroll and the odds I am receiving
https://dqydj.com/kelly-criterion-bet-calculator/
Is this approach sound? It feels sound but I don't know enough math to be certain. Some of these parlay legs start several hours after the first leg begins, when I am calculate the odds off the pinnacle lines. Is this a significant risk, where I'm not actually calculating probabilities accurately? Are these kelly and/or no-vig calculators inaccurate? Are there other risks I'm not even cognizant of?
I am posting this because I have had a bad few weeks in a row where a lot of these bets have missed. I think this is because the sample size is small and when you make a lot of +150 to +750 bets, you're going to lose a lot of them --- but I'd like a sanity check.
My goal is to ensure I'm not making +EV bets when selectively betting these odds boosts, not throwing darts like the proverbial chimp.
Thank you for any comments!