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Old 09-14-2020, 12:23 AM   #1
FRGCardinal
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Thoughts on middling a promo bet

So, in the Illinois market, there have been some fabulous opportunities at getting a really slanted line for normal juice (-110).

Example A: Bears at +12.5 instead of +2.5 for -110


Example B: Rams +38 (as part of the spread the love promo at FD) for -110


Both situations have a max risk of $50, for a max profit of $45.45 each. How do we feel about a bet on Lions at -2.5 risking the same amount? Does a move to -3 change anything?

Example B is practically a lock. If Example A isn't worth a shot, how about trying to middle on B? To be sure, that line moved from Cowboys -2.5 to Rams -1.5 by kick.
Or do I have it backwards and example A is exactly the situation where I want to try to middle, but B isn't since it's nearly free money?

All thoughts appreciated.

Anyway, as you likely guessed, I tried to middle both and missed for no net profit today.
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Old 09-14-2020, 12:45 AM   #2
atrainpsu
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Re: Thoughts on middling a promo bet

If $50 represents a large % of your bankroll, might make sense to middle (or look for an alternate line of lions-7.5) example A.
Example B would be a risk your whole bankroll type of bet and you just quit betting if you lose.
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Old 09-14-2020, 03:40 AM   #3
SwoopAE
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Re: Thoughts on middling a promo bet

Unless the max bet is at least a double digit percentage of your bankroll just let it ride the variance is pretty low for bets with double digit plus ROIs

If you have a tiny bankroll a middle/arb weighted equally towards both sides is fine

If you can't bet a max bet of $50 on a 99% to win shot and let it ride though betting might not be for you

http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tool...on-calculator/

Change fractional Kelly to 0.5 (unless you have a high risk tolerance leave it at 1) and that calculator will tell you how much of your BR you can risk on a spot - leave the max risk on the 'correct' side (eg in this case the promo lines being that they're mega +EV) and arb/middle off any extra you can get on the good side, weighted either equally or leaning towards the good side since it's more likely to win than the other side, up to you

FWIW on that Rams spot Kelly suggests 97% of your bankroll, or 48% for half kelly (assuming 99% to win is right on a +38 line, seems about right but not gonna go determine what the true price is for an NFL line +38 vs market pk) so unless your BR is less than like 120 dollars you're fine to shove the 50 bucks on it even with a low risk tolerance
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Old 09-15-2020, 12:35 AM   #4
FRGCardinal
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Re: Thoughts on middling a promo bet

Thanks for the feedback. $50 is a low single-digit percentage of my available cash across five outs. So it sounds like I'm approaching it all wrong, though, in that it's never correct to try to middle these promotional lines. Is that the size of it? Just take their free $45 and go about my usual betting?
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Old 09-15-2020, 12:53 AM   #5
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Re: Thoughts on middling a promo bet

Yeah there is no rule that says you have to cover every bet, arbing usually involves one very +EV bet and one slightly -EV bet where you give back some equity to lower variance

If you use proper bankroll management, you should be fine to ride the variance and just take the +EV side if its a low single digit % of bankroll - refer to the kelly criterion calculator I posted, full kelly is very aggressive and has big swings, half kelly is more what most successful bettors use (I don't use half kelly exactly, but thats pretty close to my actual sizings most of the time)
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