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Old 06-19-2018, 07:09 PM   #701
NajdorfDefense
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Re: Texas Rangers 2˝ System

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So you could actually just blindly bet yankees at home -2.5...that seems ridiculous
Yep. And the Phillies. Seems like a good hedge for Yanks action.
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Old 06-21-2018, 11:43 AM   #702
TomG
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Re: Texas Rangers 2˝ System

can you imagine josh hamilton in his prime playing with todays juiced ball

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IGoFTUVTbw
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Old 05-31-2019, 12:08 AM   #703
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Texas Rangers 2˝ System

I was bored today because there wasn't much action, so I tried to fix the TomG v2 server that broke last year and was somewhat successful.

Going through the files I pulled off I found one weird script "TxRangers.py"

I Was like what is this and opened it up and it was the texas rangers -2.5 system checker

Decided to fire it up to see what happened last year and up to this year.

Here is 2018 results.

https://pastebin.com/XGh7t5nM

It turns out we could have blindly bet on every team -2.5 and won ~69 units (nice)

20.4 of those coming from Texas!

2019 so far

https://pastebin.com/j7wAcB48

Small winner from blindly betting (~5 units), but what is this. Texas +11.22u

This was a revolutionary idea and now TomG is trying to shut down other revolutionary ideas due to pressure from Big Business. Remember your roots.
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Old 05-31-2019, 12:57 AM   #704
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Re: Texas Rangers 2˝ System

I archived all my data pre 2014 and took lazy to write a script to look at it, but I checked every game since 2014.

Some nice standouts:

Cin @ Home: 114-307-0 (27.08%) 65.71u
Col @Home: 138-290-0 (32.24%) 38.58u (this one seems like a no brainer, but it must be the home teams don't bat b9 if winning thing)
Det @ Away: 96-329 (22.59%) -48.3u (ouch)
Mia @Away: 89-340 (20.75%) -59.26u (only down 59 units?)
SDN @Home: 104-318-0 (24.64%) 30.26u (low scoring park + bad team + home is profitable?) yet Away: 85-347 (19.68%) -64.49u
SLN @Away: 144-285 (33.57%) 57.13u

and the best one
Can you guess which team?
Away: 91-339 (21.16%) -91.78u

Spoiler:


Only two teams are positive in Home and Away over this span. Can you guess?

Spoiler:


The total home/away since then:

Total Home:
3439-8944 -37.31u
Total Away:
3292-9213 -285.51u

Not looking too good.
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Old 05-31-2019, 01:04 AM   #705
DefNotRsigley
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Re: Texas Rangers 2˝ System

Last one, this is so interesting though.

That COL winning so much at home got me questioning, how do away teams do at Coors?

Every team profitable except

ATL -3.27u
CHA -2.1u
CLE -2u
NYA -2u
OAK -3u
PHI -13.7u
SDN -10.87u
SFN -9.02u
TEX -3.55u (?)
TOR -0.55u

Overall though:

Total Home:
138-290 38.58
Total Away:
131-290 32.07

2014:
Total Home:
28-49 25.49
Total Away:
25-52 23.00

2015:
Total Home:
17-59 -11.42
Total Away:
25-48 2.00

2016:
Total Home:
29-49 26.11
Total Away:
22-56 0.71

2017:
Total Home:
30-50 14.34
Total Away:
25-53 13.44

2018:
Total Home:
24-56 -9.89
Total Away:
25-53 14.01

2019:
Total Home:
6-20 -6.05
Total Away:
9-17 1.68

Profit every year except 2015 (and losing 2019). Should we merge the -2.5 every team at coors with the rangers -2.5???
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Old 05-31-2019, 10:15 AM   #706
TomG
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Re: Texas Rangers 2˝ System

I actually think this is what the authors of The Logic of Sports Betting were alluding to when they kept talking about sportsbooks using some chart from 10+ years ago (and that probably went back 10 years from there) that they never updated. The 2009 Rangers were predecessors to the juiced ball era we are currently in and the results predictably continue to show
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